Caribbean Activity

[N2FSU]

Seems to really be popping this morning. Any model support for something in the near future?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/avn-l.jpg

[Air Force Met]

Seems to really be popping this morning. Any model support for something in the near future?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/avn-l.jpg

Yes...this is what...I think...the EURO is trying to develop. You will notice that by tomorrow night...there is something in that area...and this is what the Euro moves towards Tx late next week.

[HURAKAN]

The disturbance near Colombia has a strong vorticity

[HURAKAN]

Current view

[KWT]

Yeah I agree with AFM this is the region that is currently being developed by the ECM, a wave just to the east of this region I think as well to hlep prop things up.

Indeed that ECM looks very close to a similar evolution we saw with Alex...slower development though this time round if it were to do anything.

[N2FSU]

Thanks AFM.

[KWT]

Just saw a post on another forum which shows the GFS is forecasting much lower than normal pressure in the W.Gulf and S.BoC in 120hrs, not that much different from the timing on the ECM developing the system it does on its 0z run.

[floridasun78]

hi all could area in carribbean be 96l? some model want form low their in carribbean one my weatherlady say could move north that be bad for longweekend in florida airforce met say going gulf system so were do she get that going move north?

[weatherSnoop]

This West Carib caught my eye.

[HURAKAN]

Looking at the buoys in the WCAR, pressures are not falling. So, at the moment, it's just an area of convection.

[weatherSnoop]

Thanks Hurakan, I was just checking into he buoy data. Saved me a trip

[Macrocane]

The disturbance near Colombia has a strong vorticity

Isn't that vorticity related to the semipermanent Colombia-Panama low?

[HURAKAN]

The disturbance near Colombia has a strong vorticity

Isn't that vorticity related to the semipermanent Colombia-Panama low?

Possibly, but since convection is flaring over water, it needs to be watched.

[xironman]

Is this the same one in the BOC?

[xironman]

Looks like that area's year

[KFDM Meteorologist]

18Z next FRI EURO has Cyclone near Brownsville.

[KWT]

Looks like the ECM is forecasting nearly an exactly same steering currents, it would make a lot of sense given the broad synoptic pattern isn't really going to shift to much overall.

[xironman]

Didn't Alex just do this?

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Yes! Almost same set up. Big High to the north!

[KWT]

xironman, yep more or less. I'd be surprised if it took the exact same track as Alex, there will be some differences but the broad evolution of the upper pattern over North America looks somewhat similar IMO.