Time to cut forecast numbers for 2010?

[StormClouds63]

Interesting item from Jeff Masters' blog dated 7/20/10:

Time to cut the forecast numbers for the coming hurricane season?

The group forecasting the lowest activity [for 2010] was the Florida State University group led by Dr. Tim LaRow. They use a new dynamical forecast model called COAPS, which is funded by a 5-year, $6.2 million grant from NOAA. This year's June forecast by the COAPS model called for 17 named storms and 10 hurricanes. However, Dr. LaRow emailed me yesterday to say that the COAPS model is now calling for reduced activity. Using the state of the atmosphere and ocean as of July 15, a new run of the COAPS model was performed over the weekend. The new forecast is now calling for two fewer hurricanes--a total of 15 named storms and 8 hurricanes (including Alex.) The COAPS model generated an "ensemble" of five different forecasts, done by varying the initial sea surface temperatures by a few percent at the beginning of the model run. These five forecasts came up with a range of 12 - 16 named storms (including Alex), and 7 - 10 hurricanes. It will be interesting to see when CSU issues its August 4 forecast if they also cut their numbers. With only one named storm (Alex) thus far this year, it's getting pretty hard to have a season with 19 or 20 named storms. Only four hurricane seasons since 1851 have had as many as nineteen named storms. These four seasons--1887, 1933, 1995, and 2005--all had at least three named storms by July 20.

[Macrocane]

I posted that earlier today on this thread: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=108471&start=100

I think that we still can reach 18 storms especially if 97L becomes Bonnie, but we are not in the way to reach 20 or more.

[StormClouds63]

Sorry, for the duplication Marcrocane ... I see your posting now.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Short answer:

No

Long answer:

No Way

[KWT]

Given how high the SST's we'll probably see the negative factors drain away over the next 15-20 days and see things really ramp up.

No reason why we can't srill get 16-18NS which has been my range...

1969 didn't get the B storm till 14th August and I happen to believe 97L will do it...

[Ptarmigan]

I am not cutting the numbers yet. I am sure there have been seasons that went unrecorded before 1851, where they managed to hit +18 despite starting late, 8 to 10 storms per a month from August to October. 1969 comes close and that started late.

[hurricanetrack]

For the sake of any credibility for future seasonal forecasts, all of the agencies that put out big numbers had better hope they are right or very close to it. The public will not stand for "we just don't know what happened".

[Scorpion]

Lol, nah, the big agencies will just cut the numbers down big time come August, and the public will forget about their flawed forecasts they made in May. What's the point of putting out a forecast in May when it can easily be changed in August?

[Tropics Guy]

Conditions can change on short notice, and we certainly are not in prime time yet, but as long as those pesky ULL's are around producing shear, IMO the agencies will cut the #'s down in August to avg to slightly above avg for the season.............

TG

[KWT]

Lol, nah, the big agencies will just cut the numbers down big time come August, and the public will forget about their flawed forecasts they made in May. What's the point of putting out a forecast in May when it can easily be changed in August?

Looks like the moderate La nina wins out over the lower pressures aloft in the tropics and record breaking SSTs.

The reason I say this is no moderate La Nina has gone above 15NS....that being said most do have pretty impressive ACE values.

If you think you can have a slow start and it won't come4 to bite you later on take a look at 1961....2nd NS developed on....2nd SEPTEMBER and that season had Carla and Hattie....

[Scorpion]

Lol, nah, the big agencies will just cut the numbers down big time come August, and the public will forget about their flawed forecasts they made in May. What's the point of putting out a forecast in May when it can easily be changed in August?

Looks like the moderate La nina wins out over the lower pressures aloft in the tropics and record breaking SSTs.

The reason I say this is no moderate La Nina has gone above 15NS....that being said most do have pretty impressive ACE values.

If you think you can have a slow start and it won't come4 to bite you later on take a look at 1961....2nd NS developed on....2nd SEPTEMBER and that season had Carla and Hattie....

I guess we can't win. Last year we have a super El Nino that destroys everything, and now we have a super La Nina that's doing the same thing. I thought La Nina's were supposed to be favorable for the Atlantic basin.

[KWT]

To an extent they are but they don't tend to have much before say Mid August. Therefore whilst we don't have much aboven say 12-15NS usually in La Ninas, nearly the whole lot of that comes after 15th August. Classic example is 1998/1999 as well as seasons like 1955, 1964, etc.

The problem is La Nina's kill the MJO cycle when they get too strong and this is *key* for early season development, plus they tend to feature zonal flows which strengthen the subtropical high pressure belt as well which enhances SAL...the ULL is probably just due to the way things have set-up, hard to know whwether its a longer term feature.

[Macrocane]

Conditions can change on short notice, and we certainly are not in prime time yet, but as long as those pesky ULL's are around producing shear, IMO the agencies will cut the #'s down in August to avg to slightly above avg for the season.............

TG

There's no way they are going to cut the numbers down to average they only would do that if they were expecting an El Niño, I think that they may cut the numbers down to the 14-17 range wich is above normal to way above normal.

[KWT]

Also lets just tyake into consideration the recent El nino years. 2006 and 2009 managed 9-10NS, which is close to average. 2009 managed 9NS from Mid August....Therefore with Alex we'd have 10NS...average...and we smanaged that in a strengthening El nino with only slightly warm waters.

Therefore anyone who thinks average is going to bust I promise, esp the zones which are currently quiet start to produce more activity, the CV wave train will be strong this year and we have already seen big waves with gyres already, just not quite there yet.

[thetruesms]

For the sake of any credibility for future seasonal forecasts, all of the agencies that put out big numbers had better hope they are right or very close to it. The public will not stand for "we just don't know what happened".

Which public? Because when it comes to the layperson, that credibility is already shot. I can't even remember how many people had a reaction of "Who cares? They forecast this many storms last year, and look how it turned out" to this year's NOAA outlook. You have to start looking at populations of interested observers before you come across people who even have any memory of what past forecasts were just a year later.

[HurrMark]

If 97 develops, and maybe we get another rogue TS by the end of the month, then the forecast may not necessarily have to drop. But if it fizzles, and nothing else is in the offering, then it should definitely drop 2-3 storms.

[Weatherfreak000]

Looking into the Tropical Atlantic tonight, are you SURE we should cut the forecast numbers?

[ConvergenceZone]

lf by the middle of August, we don' have our 'D' storm, then I would start cutting numbers for sure....still 3 weeks away from having to do that though.

[Trader Ron]

I mentioned about cutting numbers in the chat room over two weeks ago. I'm very happy with my forecast of fourteen named storms.

[hurricaneCW]

We're definitely going to have to cut numbers, according to this, we could see low activity for most of August not to mention the constant TUTT's hanging around and not going anywhere. I picked 14 storms, I hope it at least gets that high. If August fails, then the season will fail.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
427 AM AST FRI JUL 23 2010

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW N OF PR WILL RETROGRESS TO THE BAHAMAS BY
SAT WHILE SECOND TUTT LOW EAST OF 60W WILL SHEAR THROUGH SUN.
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 53W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SAT. MID-UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRES WILL BUILD FOR SUN-MON WITH A TUTT AXIS FCST TO
STRETCH ACROSS THE ISLANDS TUE-THU.

ASIDE FROM TS BONNIE NEAR THE BAHAMAS...TROP ATLC VERY QUIET AND
MJO PROGNOSIS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A STRONG DOWNWARD PHASE ACROSS
THE WRN HEMISPHERE OVR THE NEXT TWO WEEKS POSSIBLY LASTING
THROUGH THE THIRD WEEK OF AUGUST AS MJO SIGNAL CONTINUES TO
PROPAGATE INTO THE MARITIME CONTINENT/WRN PACIFIC.