Wave over eastern Caribbean Sea (Is Invest 92L)

[HURAKAN]

Something to watch over the next few days

[fwbbreeze]

I was just noticing this HURAKAN. If you look at the last few visible shots on the loop it does appear there is low level turning, espically evident in the western side of the complex.

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurr.html

[KWT]

Its pretty much overland but the system may well lift out a little as it gets towards the Central Caribbean. Just worth keeping a beady eye on just in case because actually conditions for this wave are pretty decent.

Didn't Gustav in 2008 start in that part of the Caribbean?

Not saying it'll be like that just that the wave could lift out into fairly favourable conditions.

[fwbbreeze]

12 z GFS
6H

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2010080212&field=850mb+Vorticity&hour=006hr

[blazess556]

ckeck out the 18z gfs. looks like it develops in the central caribbean.

[KWT]

18z develops this and lifts it out...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_084m.gif

Needs close watching with the upper level troughing occuring way off to the north.

[blazess556]

18z develops this and lifts it out...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_084m.gif

Needs close watching with the upper level troughing occuring way off to the north.

gfs continues to develop it through 120 hrs. wonder if other models will pick up on this.

[KWT]

ECM sorta hints at development but is much further south, probably a more realistic solution...

The GFS is pretty impressive though it has to be said, if it can lift up a little it really doe stand a shot.

[blazess556]

ECM sorta hints at development but is much further south, probably a more realistic solution...

The GFS is pretty impressive though it has to be said, if it can lift up a little it really doe stand a shot.

the trough that lifts td 4 out of the picture could allow the Caribbean wave to gain latitude and develop. maybe td 4 going out to sea isn't so bad after all.

[Nimbus]

Me with no generator and just when I was starting to think it was safe to stock the freezer again.
So there is model support.

[HURAKAN]

GFS in 6 days

[blazess556]

GFS in 6 days

looks like we could have colin, danielle and earl.

[KWT]

Yeah now this really could be a catch22 situation...if the trough weakens it means TD4 gets closer to the coast, if it strengthens more then expected, this wave wil lget lifted out and it'll be in a somewhat favourable set-up.

I suspect this one has a reasonable shot at development down the line, though the GFS solution is probably the most extreme solution.

The forward speed is KEY...the slower it moves, the greater the threat is of this gaining enough latitude is.

[Wx_Warrior]

12z gfs didn't have the gom'er LOL

[KWT]

Nah, the 12z suite (including the ECM) all had this much further south hitting SA, but it does lift out towards Belize, so if its a little slower and the trough is stronger...the solution isn't totally out of the question.

[HURAKAN]

It may be mentioned in the TWO. Lets see.

[Wx_Warrior]

[ROCK]

the CMC caught it also but like the ECM it burys it around Belize and in the extreme BOC...

[ROCK]

time to stay up for the EURO tonight!!!

[KWT]

the CMC caught it also but like the ECM it burys it around Belize and in the extreme BOC...

Indeed, there is model support for it it just depends on what that upper trough decides to do, I'd be surprised if the 18z comes off but we could well get something going, as I said Gustav 08 came from this region.

Whats really catching my idea is the circular nature of the Vort lobe, thats usually a telling sign of good conditions...