CSU's Klotzbach Addresses Lack of Hurricane Activity

[SFLcane]

I have started to receive questions from the media asking where the hurricanes in the Atlantic are. We forecast a very active season, calling for a total of 18 named storms, 10 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes (compared with the climatological average of 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes). Before I go into more detail describing why I think it is too early to think that this is a seasonal forecast bust, I wanted to briefly address the global storm component."

"The average date of 2nd hurricane formation for all of these years is August 21, and you will note that five years with very high ACE values of 170 or greater did not have their 2nd hurricane formation until August 20th or later. The 2nd storm in 1961 did not form until September, and that September went on to have four major hurricanes, a record for the month. So, from a climatological perspective, it is not time to write off the TC season yet."

Here's the link to the complete article... http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/08/10/klotzbach-on-atlantic-hurricane-season-analysis/

[Bocadude85]

Very interesting article. I do agree that the tropics should pick up in the coming weeks.

[Weatherfreak000]

That about sums up EXACTLY why there is evidence against the naysayer camp. Whereas the naysayer camp is just running on pure speculation.


Great topic.

[HURAKAN]

The problem is that this shouldn't be an average season, therefore, we shouldn't expect to see the 2nd hurricane by August 21. Nevertheless, I too think it's too early to write this season off but the 18 storms forecast is looking iffy.

[cycloneye]

Very interesting analysis by Klotzbach. I say 16 is a good number now and ACE will end around 90 units as I see things right now.

[Frank2]

On the flip side, here's what happened in 2005 - it actually was a busted forecast in the opposite direction and shows the unpredictability of weather, since 2006 was forecast to be as busy as 2005 - but turned out to be just the opposite:

The below is from a Wikipedia article:

Predictions of tropical activity in the 2005 season Source Date

Tropical storms Hurricanes Major hurricanes

NOAA Average[2] 11 6 2
CSU December 3, 2004 11 6 3
CSU April 1, 2005 13 7 3
NOAA May 16, 2005 12–15 7–9 3–5
CSU May 31, 2005 15 8 4
NOAA August 2, 2005 18–21 9–11 5–7
CSU August 5, 2005 20 10 6

Actual activity 28 15 7

[hurricaneCW]

Very interesting article. I do agree that the tropics should pick up in the coming weeks.

We're running out of "coming weeks". In 3 weeks it will be September. So based on your post, you expect the tropics to ramp up in September which is just based on climatology. If we get an average year, so be it, that's okay. The problem is that every forecaster believes it will be well above average, most show greater than 15 storms, 6-8 hurricanes, and 3-5 major hurricanes.

So if the season turns out to be 10, 5, 2. It may be an average season but it will end up as a complete bust for this season's forecasts. It will also stir up a lot of interesting topics as to how everything in the Atlantic sets up perfectly, but we can't get an above average season. I know I'm complaining but with every failed disturbance, 93L, TD 3, it feels like nothing will ever get going.

[SFLcane]

Very interesting article. I do agree that the tropics should pick up in the coming weeks.

We're running out of "coming weeks". In 3 weeks it will be September. So based on your post, you expect the tropics to ramp up in September which is just based on climatology. If we get an average year, so be it, that's okay. The problem is that every forecaster believes it will be well above average, most show greater than 15 storms, 6-8 hurricanes, and 3-5 major hurricanes.

So if the season turns out to be 10, 5, 2. It may be an average season but it will end up as a complete bust for this season's forecasts. It will also stir up a lot of interesting topics as to how everything in the Atlantic sets up perfectly, but we can't get an above average season. I know I'm complaining but with every failed disturbance, 93L, TD 3, it feels like nothing will ever get going.

your'e (NOT) suppose to get much of anything going till early mid august. Its been said countless times the real meat of the season is august 15 or so to mid october. With la nina around i think theres a good chance were going be tracking storms in nov.

[Bocadude85]

Very interesting article. I do agree that the tropics should pick up in the coming weeks.

We're running out of "coming weeks". In 3 weeks it will be September. So based on your post, you expect the tropics to ramp up in September which is just based on climatology. If we get an average year, so be it, that's okay. The problem is that every forecaster believes it will be well above average, most show greater than 15 storms, 6-8 hurricanes, and 3-5 major hurricanes.

So if the season turns out to be 10, 5, 2. It may be an average season but it will end up as a complete bust for this season's forecasts. It will also stir up a lot of interesting topics as to how everything in the Atlantic sets up perfectly, but we can't get an above average season. I know I'm complaining but with every failed disturbance, 93L, TD 3, it feels like nothing will ever get going.

You do realize that the Atlantic hurricane season does not end until November 30th? We have 121 days to get another 13 storms.

[hurricaneCW]

We may have 121 days, but those last 45 days are generally storm free and unfavorable for additional development. Since we've been going with climatology so far, we really only have about 30-45 days to get all of those storms that were forecast. We also have to get several hurricanes and major hurricanes to reach expectations. The period of August 15-September 30 is our best bet. The models don't show much in the way of development extending all the way to August 20-25th.

[ConvergenceZone]

I think what they are trying to say is that in La Nina years the season activity always extends until November.
KWT pointed out a pretty good stat that shows that there has ALWAYS been activity going into NOvember
for La Nina years. . I realize that past results
don't equal the future, but the odds are we we will get some activity.
I think there's no doubt that we will activity, the question is, how much activity?

[Bocadude85]

We may have 121 days, but those last 45 days are generally storm free and unfavorable for additional development. Since we've been going with climatology so far, we really only have about 30-45 days to get all of those storms that were forecast. We also have to get several hurricanes and major hurricanes to reach expectations. The period of August 15-September 30 is our best bet. The models don't show much in the way of development extending all the way to August 20-25th.

I think you might want to go back and look at some past hurricane seasons.. October is usually a pretty active month infact we usually have a second "peak" of the season in October. The seasons of 1995,1998,1999,2008 featured 4 systems in the two month period of October 1st to November 30th. The 2005 season had 10 systems develop after October 1st. Even the 2009 season had 3 named storms after October 1st. Also I wouldnt put to much faith into what any model is predicting 14 days from now because those forecasts will change, just two days ago the models were predicting several storms in the Atlantic.

[JTD]

The so-called "naysayers" do have one VERY big piece of evidence on their side, the inhospitable conditions and failure for storms to develop so far this season even when expected to. So far this season is worse than 2009! Look north of the islands, what do you see? Nothing but a TUTT
graveyard! In 2006, we were just days away from Ernesto forming. I fail to see the letter E anywhere in sight right now.

I haven't seen a year this dull in a very long time, indeed. This is good though as the economy and national psyche can't take a monster hurricane hit right now. Still though, just admit that the season is what it is.

All of us on this board said back in June, July will be the teller of whether or not we get a hyperactive season? Remember that? We ended up with just ONE named storm. ONE. Key sign right there. We all said it would be.

It should be noted that we're still average, of course, but right now that's all this season is, average average average. It wass predicted not to be. That is the problem. In 2009, I didn't expect much. We all knew El Nino would shut 'er down.

[Brent]

The problem is that this shouldn't be an average season, therefore, we shouldn't expect to see the 2nd hurricane by August 21. Nevertheless, I too think it's too early to write this season off but the 18 storms forecast is looking iffy.

Exactly.

and here we go with ANOTHER pathetic storm. When will it end?

[senorpepr]

I'll toss this in here...

So far this year, we've had 5 depressions, 3 storms, and 1 hurricane.

Looking at season since 1995, on average, we have had 4.06 depressions, 3.19 storms, 1.19 hurricanes, and 0.38 majors. (Pretty close to average, considering the standard deviations.)

"But 2010 is not suppose to be an 'average' season." If you look at only those seasons that produced more than 15 named storms, your averages are 5.13 depressions, 4.13 storms, 1.75 hurricanes, and 0.63 majors. 2010 is still within 1 of all of those figures and easily within the standard deviation. Also, keep in mind the averages are skewed higher (on both sets) because of the 28 storms in 2005.

So all in all, it's WAY too early to be giving up... the season hasn't really started yet. It's barely August.

[senorpepr]

The problem is that this shouldn't be an average season, therefore, we shouldn't expect to see the 2nd hurricane by August 21. Nevertheless, I too think it's too early to write this season off but the 18 storms forecast is looking iffy.

To piggy back off my last statement, let's look at the statistics for the second hurricane during seasons with at least 15 named storms...

Unfortunately, in the dataset we only have 13 seasons that had at least 15 named storms. With that, the average date the second hurricane is upgraded is the 5th of August. However, considering we have only 13 seasons to choose from, we have a standard deviation of nearly 20 days.. 70% of these seasons fit within one z-score (i.e. within one standard deviation)... with that window being from 17 July to 25 August.

...and we're still in that window. Of course, just over 30% of these seasons we're either before or after this window...

Just some food for thought.

[HURAKAN]

Thanks senorpepr, you can't go against the stats.

[Frank2]

senorpepr (I love than handle),

Yes, that's true, though the public isn't concerned with the statistics themselves but are concerned only with what they actually experience, and that's the issue it seems, and to them so far we've had only one viable system, and that was Alex (as I've heard more than once, "If it doesn't look like a hurricane we're not interested")...

As another poster said last week, perhaps this entire issue shows a flaw in the system itself, since there could be 30 weak systems and the scientific community would be saying that it's been a record-setting season, but to the public at large it would be considered nothing more than a rainy summer, so it's all a matter of who views the season, though it really should be said that the public interpretation should always come first, and perhaps the "plain language" of hurricane seasonal forecasts should reflect this in some way, to avoid the situation we are having now...

Frank

P.S. I'm sure someone will punch me in the stomach for this - glad I had an early lunch today (lol)...

[StormClouds63]

Proponents who still advocate a very active season keep pushing back the date when activity starts to really get under way. Problem is, we've had activity. Other than Alex, examine the named systems or TDs. Surely one must acknowledge that the environment (not water temps) so far has not been conducive for tropical development of consequence. Can that change? Yes. Will it change? I don't know. Perhaps it's the year of the shear, dry air, TUTT, and ULL.

I would advise everyone to keep a watch on that wave which emerged from Africa a few days ago. I think it has a decent chance. It may be a fish or, it could reach the Caribbean. If it does the latter, we might have something really worth discussing in a few days.

[ColinDelia]

I'm with those who think it's just too early and we will still see a busy Atlantic season