2011 WPAC Season

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Typhoon10
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2011 WPAC Season

#1 Postby Typhoon10 » Thu Jan 06, 2011 9:11 pm

Happy New Year everyone!

So how does everyone see the 2011 WPAC Season panning out? Already this year, here in Hong Kong, had very little if any rain for the last 3 months.
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#2 Postby StormingB81 » Thu Jan 06, 2011 9:24 pm

Im going to go out on a limb and say buisier then last season..lol
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Re: 2011 WPAC Season

#3 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Thu Jan 06, 2011 9:28 pm

I do think it will be a late year again.. but busy by October in to November.. just a thought
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#4 Postby KWT » Fri Jan 07, 2011 9:37 am

Well to be fair it could hardly be a slower season in the WPAC could it!
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#5 Postby StormingB81 » Fri Jan 07, 2011 10:38 am

It has rained every day so far this year...lol
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Re: 2011 WPAC Season

#6 Postby dexterlabio » Fri Jan 07, 2011 11:13 am

I'm searching for some TC predictions for 2011 but I saw none on how this season will likely turn out. Well, for the mean time, I am enjoying the cool and breezy weather here in Manila. :D Especially during midnight, the temperature is so cool that I almost think I am in Baguio City. Baguio City in the Philippines is having extremely cold weather at the mean time and the vegetable farms out there are becoming frozen. :cold:

However, we experience unusual rains that can be heavy at times, well it is unusual to have that kind of rain here for the months of December and January. Extreme rainfall are being experienced by the areas at the southern and eastern side of the Philippines. As what the local reports say, there are various flashfloods and landslides happening. The La Niña episode is now making its presence felt. So far, we have started the year wet and cold. Now I wonder how this La Niña episode would affect the TC activity in the Western Pacific.
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#7 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Sun Jan 09, 2011 3:10 am

Hey Dexter, I'm visiting Manila in February. How are the nights then? I guess it depends on if there are any cold surges occurring or anything like that eh?

Any how I'll be putting some numbers out at westernpacificweather soon, but I think I want to keep looking into it instead of throwing some numbers out there.
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Re: 2011 WPAC Season

#8 Postby ManilaTC » Tue Jan 11, 2011 2:50 am

@Rob, Manila weather is 18-27 deg at the most... mostly cloudy with drizzles over the last 2-3 weeks or so.

The WestPac has bottomed out so to say, and there is nowhere to go but up.
An active trend for TC formation (decade wise) is long overdue.
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Re: 2011 WPAC Season

#9 Postby dexterlabio » Sat Jan 15, 2011 11:27 pm

RobWESTPACWX wrote:Hey Dexter, I'm visiting Manila in February. How are the nights then? I guess it depends on if there are any cold surges occurring or anything like that eh?

Any how I'll be putting some numbers out at westernpacificweather soon, but I think I want to keep looking into it instead of throwing some numbers out there.


@ClarkEligue is right. Temperature in Manila is relatively cool, well I was already expecting that since the cool NE surge is usually at its peak from January to February. Light-passing drizzles also happen, but yesterday we had this heavy downpour that flooded many roads in the metro. It seems that these cool NE surge, frontal system, and the wet easterlies are causing cloudiness all over the country. At least, Manila is not too affected by the rains, but the eastern and southern portions of the archipelago experience bad weather conditions.
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Re: 2011 WPAC Season

#10 Postby phwxenthusiast » Mon Jan 17, 2011 4:54 am

dexterlabio wrote:@ClarkEligue is right. Temperature in Manila is relatively cool, well I was already expecting that since the cool NE surge is usually at its peak from January to February. Light-passing drizzles also happen, but yesterday we had this heavy downpour that flooded many roads in the metro. It seems that these cool NE surge, frontal system, and the wet easterlies are causing cloudiness all over the country. At least, Manila is not too affected by the rains, but the eastern and southern portions of the archipelago experience bad weather conditions.


must be really cold then... i've never seen the 0C 850mb temps go down as far south as Taiwan before... 10C actually touching Northern Philippines... now granted, it doesn't necessarily mean the 10m temps will be that cold as well, but still amazing! ahhaha... temps should moderate though in the next few days...
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Re: 2011 WPAC Season

#11 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jan 24, 2011 10:18 pm

My set of numbers for the 2011 WPAC season are 27/16/7. In my view of things right now,Weak La Nina to Neutral ENSO by the Northern Hemisphere Summer and Fall will influence the Western Pacific TC activity.
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Re: 2011 WPAC Season

#12 Postby euro6208 » Tue Jan 25, 2011 11:06 am

my numbers for the 2011 season is 25/13/6 with 3 major landfalls including a category 5 landfall in philippines or taiwan.
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Re: 2011 WPAC Season

#13 Postby Reesie » Wed Jan 26, 2011 11:20 pm

PAGASA are predicting at least 22 TC's to form or develop within their AOR this season.

http://www.philstar.com/Article.aspx?ar ... egoryId=63
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#14 Postby Chacor » Tue Feb 01, 2011 11:26 am

Had a very wet and windy end to January here, winds topping out at over 20 knots on a few days. Here's the Singapore Met Office report:

http://app2.nea.gov.sg/fortnightly_outlook.aspx
REVIEW 1-30 January 2011
1. Northeast Monsoon conditions prevailed during January 2011 with the low level winds over the region blowing from the northwest and northeast. The weather during this period was typical of the wet phase of the Northeast Monsoon which is characterised by heavy thundery showers in the afternoon as well as episodes of widespread rain caused by monsoon surges.

2. Singapore experienced heavy thundery showers in the afternoon and early evening on about six days in January, with the heaviest of these events registering a rainfall of 142 mm on 5 January. In addition, Singapore and the surrounding region were affected by two monsoon surges from 7-11 January and from 25 January to the end of the review period. A monsoon surge refers to the steady strengthening of northeasterly winds blowing from the South China Sea. Such spells of strengthening monsoon winds often bring prolonged widespread rain, occasionally windy conditions and cooler temperatures. The second surge was more intense and brought widespread moderate to heavy rain to Singapore on 26 Jan (86 mm), 28 Jan (66 mm), 29 Jan (66 mm) and 30 Jan (216 mm). The prolonged moderate to heavy rain on 30 January resulted in flooding in several parts of Singapore, particularly in the eastern part of the island.

3. All parts of Singapore received above average rainfall in January 2011. The highest rainfall of 515 mm to 560 mm (120% to 140% above average) fell over the eastern parts of the island around Changi and Pasir Ris. The central parts of Singapore around the city area received the lowest rainfall where 280 mm to 325 mm (20% to 40% above average) was recorded.


Our average monthly rainfall for January is 235 mm, and we got 216 mm in one day alone on Sunday (when it rained the entire day, non-stop).
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Re: 2011 WPAC Season

#15 Postby Typhoon10 » Tue Feb 01, 2011 9:51 pm

Chacor. Kung Hei Fatt Choi.

Although dont have the data from HKO, here in HK the winter has been particular dry. I cant remember any decent rain for months, possibly 4 to 5 months. I would say we have had over 100+ dry days in the last 4 months. Also, feels it has been a colder winter as well, with tempertures reaching 1c in parts of HK over this winter.

These conditions for HK, Singapore and the unfortunate events that have and are occuring in Australia as a result of any particular climatic condition or event?
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Re: 2011 WPAC Season

#16 Postby cycloneye » Tue Feb 01, 2011 9:57 pm

Typhoon10 wrote:Chacor. Kung Hei Fatt Choi.

Although dont have the data from HKO, here in HK the winter has been particular dry. I cant remember any decent rain for months, possibly 4 to 5 months. I would say we have had over 100+ dry days in the last 4 months. Also, feels it has been a colder winter as well, with tempertures reaching 1c in parts of HK over this winter.

These conditions for HK, Singapore and the unfortunate events that have and are occuring in Australia as a result of any particular climatic condition or event?


One climate event that is affecting worldwide weather is the Moderate to Strong La Nina that is right now in the Tropical Pacific.If the ENSO models are right,it should transition to Neutral by the Northern Hemisphere Summer. You can get more details about this at the ENSO Updates thread.
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#17 Postby Chacor » Tue Feb 01, 2011 9:58 pm

Yes, La Niña has definitely affected the cyclone season in Australia and the weather here.
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#18 Postby StormingB81 » Mon Feb 07, 2011 7:13 pm

We had crazy weather here in Okinawa on Friday. Had localized flooding. a drainage ditch filled whic hat the deepest point is 10 feet and its about a half a football field and went into the parking lot which went knee deep in places was scrambling to move cars. it was crazy!
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#19 Postby StormingB81 » Thu Feb 17, 2011 12:11 am

Looking at an area to the southerwest of PI but it is right next to land so I dont even think an Invest will be made of it however weather down there calling for flooding.
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Re: 2011 WPAC Season

#20 Postby cycloneye » Sun Feb 20, 2011 5:51 pm

I am not too familiar with the WPAC so I ask, to that basin followers,at what date the earliest Tropical Cyclone formed? It looks very quiet out there at this moment.
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