Which name list will retire all it's original names first?

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Re: Which name list will retire all it's original names first?

#81 Postby Teban54 » Mon Sep 27, 2021 9:58 am

Not sure how reliable this is, but they might have considered adding Q names to the auxiliary list but was ultimately rejected:
 https://twitter.com/DRmetwatch/status/1442324774911238147


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Re: Which name list will retire all it's original names first?

#82 Postby tomatkins » Tue Oct 05, 2021 11:44 am

AJC3 wrote:
AnnularCane wrote:Whichever list it is, I kind of have my doubts that any of us will be around to see it happen. But you never know, I guess. :)


Taken from my post on page 1 of this thread (from a few years ago...)

AJC3 wrote:None of us will be alive to see how this turns out. In fact, the great-great-great-grandmother of the clairvoyant who will need to contact me after I'm dead to let me know which list winds up retiring all its names first hasn't been born yet.

Yeah - given the current retirement rates per letter, you are probably talking 100 years or more down the line and thats with some luck (i.e. if an A storm gets retired off of the list that also had Wilma, instead of off of say the current list.) Could easily be a couple of hundred years before one of the whole lists is retired.
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Re: Which name list will retire all it's original names first?

#83 Postby Teban54 » Sun Oct 31, 2021 2:34 am

Looks like we made it to the end of List 1 without retiring a single original name, just like last year.
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Re: Which name list will retire all it's original names first?

#84 Postby wwizard » Wed Nov 10, 2021 3:26 pm

I think any list that has a combination of A/B, B/C or A/B/C still unretired would be hard to get done.The last retired A storm was Allison in 2001. The last B was Bob in 1991, and the last C was Charley in 2004. Those early storms just happen too early these days and they usually aren't very strong that early. There's only been 7 storms before August to ever be retired, and 2005 is the last time it happened.

List 2 is the only list that already has 2 of the first 3 letters retired, so it would have the best chance over the others. And it would probably take an Allison type storm to get Bonnie retired.
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Re: Which name list will retire all it's original names first?

#85 Postby Teban54 » Wed Sep 28, 2022 11:28 pm

Bumping this up again.

Updated September 28, 2022. Fiona and Ian are assumed to be retired.
(Edit on Dec 31, 2022: Looks like Julia is up in the air for retirement, and no other names are retirement-worthy.)

Added color code for triple retirements. Unsurprisingly, it's an I name.

(Original - Retired - Retired twice - Retired 3 times - Never been used)

List 1 (next 2027) - A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K, L, M, N, O, P, R, S, T, V, W

List 2 (2022/2028) - A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K, L, M, N, O, P, R, S, T, V, W

List 3 (next 2023) - A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K, L, M, N, O, P, R, S, T, V, W

List 4 (next 2024) - A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K, L, M, N, O, P, R, S, T, V, W

List 5 (next 2025) - A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K, L, M, N, O, P, R, S, T, V, W

List 6 (next 2026) - A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K, L, M, N, O, P, R, S, T, V, W

Auxiliary List - A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K, L, M, N, O, P, R, S, T, V, W

Greek Alphabet (legacy) - α, β, γ, δ, ε, ζ, η, θ, ι



List 2 will presumably retire at least two names, but neither are original names. Bad luck, as the names next to them (Earl and Hermine) have never been retired.

If there's a La Nina October Caribbean monster that warrants retirement, things will get interesting. Good chance it either knocks out an original name (Karl, Lisa, Nicole), or gives us the second triple retirement right after the first (Martin).
Last edited by Teban54 on Sat Dec 31, 2022 2:53 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Which name list will retire all it's original names first?

#86 Postby Teban54 » Wed Sep 28, 2022 11:30 pm

wwizard wrote:I think any list that has a combination of A/B, B/C or A/B/C still unretired would be hard to get done.The last retired A storm was Allison in 2001. The last B was Bob in 1991, and the last C was Charley in 2004. Those early storms just happen too early these days and they usually aren't very strong that early. There's only been 7 storms before August to ever be retired, and 2005 is the last time it happened.

List 2 is the only list that already has 2 of the first 3 letters retired, so it would have the best chance over the others. And it would probably take an Allison type storm to get Bonnie retired.

Interestingly, 2022 with its slow start showed you don't always fly past the A/B/C names so fast that they end up never getting retired.

If Colin didn't form (and/or Bonnie didn't get its act together until in the EPAC), and the bell-ringing storms (Danielle/Earl) were closer to land, this year could have come close at retiring an early alphabet name.

Edit: Also, if Bonnie turned out to be the July Caribbean major like EPS showed, it might have had a legitimate chance at retirement.
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Re: Which name list will retire all it's original names first?

#87 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Sep 29, 2022 3:17 pm

Teban54 wrote:Bumping this up again.

Updated September 28, 2022. Fiona and Ian are assumed to be retired.

Added color code for triple retirements. Unsurprisingly, it's an I name.

(Original - Retired - Retired twice - Retired 3 times - Never been used)

List 1 (next 2027) - A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K, L, M, N, O, P, R, S, T, V, W

List 2 (2022/2028) - A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K, L, M, N, O, P, R, S, T, V, W

List 3 (next 2023) - A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K, L, M, N, O, P, R, S, T, V, W

List 4 (next 2024) - A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K, L, M, N, O, P, R, S, T, V, W

List 5 (next 2025) - A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K, L, M, N, O, P, R, S, T, V, W

List 6 (next 2026) - A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K, L, M, N, O, P, R, S, T, V, W

Auxiliary List - A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K, L, M, N, O, P, R, S, T, V, W

Greek Alphabet (legacy) - α, β, γ, δ, ε, ζ, η, θ, ι



List 2 will presumably retire at least two names, but neither are original names. Bad luck, as the names next to them (Earl and Hermine) have never been retired.

If there's a La Nina October Caribbean monster that warrants retirement, things will get interesting. Good chance it either knocks out an original name (Karl, Lisa, Nicole), or gives us the second triple retirement right after the first (Martin).


I was actually going to look for this - thanks for bumping it up and adding the triple retirement color. Assumption is that Fiona and Ian are retired, correct.
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Re: Which name list will retire all it's original names first?

#88 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Oct 02, 2022 11:44 pm

Looking at each original list and what is left up to now:

1979 - Ana, Claudette, Henri, Kate, Larry, Mindy, Nicholas, Odette, Peter, Rose, Sam, Teresa, Victor, Wanda (14)
(Retired: Bob, David, Elena/Erika, Frederic/Fabian, Gloria, Isabel/Ida, Juan/Joaquin)

1980 - Bonnie, Danielle, Earl, Hermine, Karl, Lisa, Nicole, Paula, Richard, Shary, Virginie, Walter (12)
(Retired: Allen/Andrew, Charley, Frances/Fiona*, Georges, Ivan/Igor/Ian*, Jeanne, Mitch/Matthew, Otto, Tomas)

1981 - Arlene, Bret, Cindy, Emily, Gert, Jose, Ophelia, Philippe, Tammy, Vince (10)
(Retired: Dennis, Floyd, Harvey, Irene/Irma, Katrina, Lenny, Maria, Nate, Rita, Stan, Wilma)

1982 - Alberto, Beryl, Chris, Debby, Ernesto, Helene, Isaac, Leslie, Nadine, Oscar, Patty, Rafael, Tony, Valerie, William (15)
(Retired: Florence, Gilbert, Joan, Keith, Michael, Sandy)

1983 - Barry, Chantal, Erin, Gabrielle, Jerry, Karen, Pablo, Sebastian, Tanya, Van, Wendy (11)
(Retired: Alicia/Allison, Dean/Dorian, Felix, Hugo, Iris/Ingrid, Luis, Marilyn/Michelle, Noel, Opal, Roxanne)

1984 - Arthur, Bertha, Edouard, Josephine, Marco, Nana, Omar, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky, Wilfred (12)
(Retired: Cesar, Diana, Fran, Gustav, Hortense, Isidore/Ike, Klaus, Lili/Laura, Paloma)

*presumed
Last edited by CrazyC83 on Wed Oct 05, 2022 2:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Which name list will retire all it's original names first?

#89 Postby Category5Kaiju » Tue Oct 11, 2022 8:06 pm

If there was anything I learned from this year, it would be to never trust a List 2 year. :lol:

Literally every List 2 year (1980, 1992, 1998, 2004, and 2016) featured at least one very destructive and memorable storm. 2022 isn't anything different. And this doesn't count years in the past that would have used List 2 had the naming convention been established then (1926, 1932, 1938, 1944, 1950 ring any bells?) :lol:
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Re: Which name list will retire all it's original names first?

#90 Postby Teban54 » Sat Dec 31, 2022 2:59 am

Teban54 wrote:Bumping this up again.

Updated September 28, 2022. Fiona and Ian are assumed to be retired.
(Edit on Dec 31, 2022: Looks like Julia is up in the air for retirement, and no other names are retirement-worthy.)

Added color code for triple retirements. Unsurprisingly, it's an I name.

(Original - Retired - Retired twice - Retired 3 times - Never been used)

List 1 (next 2027) - A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K, L, M, N, O, P, R, S, T, V, W

List 2 (2022/2028) - A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K, L, M, N, O, P, R, S, T, V, W

List 3 (next 2023) - A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K, L, M, N, O, P, R, S, T, V, W

List 4 (next 2024) - A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K, L, M, N, O, P, R, S, T, V, W

List 5 (next 2025) - A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K, L, M, N, O, P, R, S, T, V, W

List 6 (next 2026) - A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K, L, M, N, O, P, R, S, T, V, W

Auxiliary List - A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K, L, M, N, O, P, R, S, T, V, W

Greek Alphabet (legacy) - α, β, γ, δ, ε, ζ, η, θ, ι



List 2 will presumably retire at least two names, but neither are original names. Bad luck, as the names next to them (Earl and Hermine) have never been retired.

If there's a La Nina October Caribbean monster that warrants retirement, things will get interesting. Good chance it either knocks out an original name (Karl, Lisa, Nicole), or gives us the second triple retirement right after the first (Martin).

Bumping this, as people are already talking about big ones for 2023 in the other thread.

Original names on List 3: Arlene, Bret, Cindy, Emily, Gert, Jose, Ophelia, Philippe, Tammy, Vince.
A lot of them are early letters, as List 3 has done a good job with retiring names deep into the alphabet (mostly due to 2005 and 2017).

Given that transition to at least neutral ENSO is likely, I wonder if this may be the year where A/B/C/E may finally be retired?
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Re: Which name list will retire all it's original names first?

#91 Postby Category5Kaiju » Tue Jan 10, 2023 12:19 am

Teban54 wrote:
Teban54 wrote:Bumping this up again.

Updated September 28, 2022. Fiona and Ian are assumed to be retired.
(Edit on Dec 31, 2022: Looks like Julia is up in the air for retirement, and no other names are retirement-worthy.)

Added color code for triple retirements. Unsurprisingly, it's an I name.

(Original - Retired - Retired twice - Retired 3 times - Never been used)

List 1 (next 2027) - A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K, L, M, N, O, P, R, S, T, V, W

List 2 (2022/2028) - A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K, L, M, N, O, P, R, S, T, V, W

List 3 (next 2023) - A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K, L, M, N, O, P, R, S, T, V, W

List 4 (next 2024) - A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K, L, M, N, O, P, R, S, T, V, W

List 5 (next 2025) - A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K, L, M, N, O, P, R, S, T, V, W

List 6 (next 2026) - A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K, L, M, N, O, P, R, S, T, V, W

Auxiliary List - A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K, L, M, N, O, P, R, S, T, V, W

Greek Alphabet (legacy) - α, β, γ, δ, ε, ζ, η, θ, ι



List 2 will presumably retire at least two names, but neither are original names. Bad luck, as the names next to them (Earl and Hermine) have never been retired.

If there's a La Nina October Caribbean monster that warrants retirement, things will get interesting. Good chance it either knocks out an original name (Karl, Lisa, Nicole), or gives us the second triple retirement right after the first (Martin).

Bumping this, as people are already talking about big ones for 2023 in the other thread.

Original names on List 3: Arlene, Bret, Cindy, Emily, Gert, Jose, Ophelia, Philippe, Tammy, Vince.
A lot of them are early letters, as List 3 has done a good job with retiring names deep into the alphabet (mostly due to 2005 and 2017).

Given that transition to at least neutral ENSO is likely, I wonder if this may be the year where A/B/C/E may finally be retired?


While it was way before 1979 when we started naming storms with our current naming lists, 1933 would have been a List 3 year assuming the 6-year naming convention existed back then. We all know that that season was pretty insane and could have been another 20+ NS season. Same goes for 1969. List 3 seems to have a pretty nasty history with overly active, destructive years.
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Re: Which name list will retire all it's original names first?

#92 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Apr 15, 2023 9:07 pm

Generally, to get rid of early letters these days, we need an inactive season OR a destructive early season (no later than early August) storm. If 2023 is going to be an El Nino season, the former may become true, but such seasons are often front-loaded.
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Re: Which name list will retire all it's original names first?

#93 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sat Apr 22, 2023 7:54 am

CrazyC83 wrote:Generally, to get rid of early letters these days, we need an inactive season OR a destructive early season (no later than early August) storm. If 2023 is going to be an El Nino season, the former may become true, but such seasons are often front-loaded.


At least this year, I think because of that, I'm giving an elevated probability that "Emily" might become a retirable storm. I still think we're going to blast through the ABC storms in the May-July timeframe.
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Re: Which name list will retire all it's original names first?

#94 Postby HurricaneRyan » Sat Oct 07, 2023 12:03 pm

Unless Tammy or Vince become a Western Caribbean monster I don't see us retiring an original name this year either
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Re: Which name list will retire all it's original names first?

#95 Postby zhukm29 » Fri Oct 20, 2023 9:37 pm

Going to put this here so it doesn't get buried in the Tammy thread, but Tammy's intensification into a hurricane is actually quite significant, since this makes list 3 the first list to have every single letter from A to W be used for a hurricane. Might not be the same as the first to retire every name (which we will probably never know in our lifetimes), but having every letter reach hurricane status is still a pretty cool piece of trivia.

The next closest list is list 2, which is missing two letters - but those letters are V and W, which have never been used before (Virginie and Walter). The other lists are further behind - the worst showing is probably list 1, with the letters A, M, O, P, R, T, V, and W never attaining hurricane status before. That being said, this is not surprising considering it reached R for the first time in 2021, and the L name on that list (Larry) has only been used twice!
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Re: Which name list will retire all it's original names first?

#96 Postby HurricaneRyan » Fri Oct 20, 2023 10:16 pm

zhukm29 wrote:Going to put this here so it doesn't get buried in the Tammy thread, but Tammy's intensification into a hurricane is actually quite significant, since this makes list 3 the first list to have every single letter from A to W be used for a hurricane. Might not be the same as the first to retire every name (which we will probably never know in our lifetimes), but having every letter reach hurricane status is still a pretty cool piece of trivia.

The next closest list is list 2, which is missing two letters - but those letters are V and W, which have never been used before (Virginie and Walter). The other lists are further behind - the worst showing is probably list 1, with the letters A, M, O, P, R, T, V, and W never attaining hurricane status before. That being said, this is not surprising considering it reached R for the first time in 2021, and the L name on that list (Larry) has only been used twice!


If we get Vince and Whitney after Tammy then this would be the second time that this list exhausted the main list.
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Re: Which name list will retire all it's original names first?

#97 Postby zhukm29 » Sat Oct 21, 2023 1:25 am

HurricaneRyan wrote:
zhukm29 wrote:Going to put this here so it doesn't get buried in the Tammy thread, but Tammy's intensification into a hurricane is actually quite significant, since this makes list 3 the first list to have every single letter from A to W be used for a hurricane. Might not be the same as the first to retire every name (which we will probably never know in our lifetimes), but having every letter reach hurricane status is still a pretty cool piece of trivia.

The next closest list is list 2, which is missing two letters - but those letters are V and W, which have never been used before (Virginie and Walter). The other lists are further behind - the worst showing is probably list 1, with the letters A, M, O, P, R, T, V, and W never attaining hurricane status before. That being said, this is not surprising considering it reached R for the first time in 2021, and the L name on that list (Larry) has only been used twice!


If we get Vince and Whitney after Tammy then this would be the second time that this list exhausted the main list.


If only 01L had been named, we would be at Vince right now... which would have put us one name away from exhausting the list :sadly:
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Re: Which name list will retire all it's original names first?

#98 Postby REDHurricane » Sat Oct 21, 2023 3:24 am

zhukm29 wrote:
HurricaneRyan wrote:
If we get Vince and Whitney after Tammy then this would be the second time that this list exhausted the main list.


If only 01L had been named, we would be at Vince right now... which would have put us one name away from exhausting the list :sadly:


Don't worry, I would bet pretty confidently that there will be at least two more named storms this calendar year regardless, and maybe 50/50 odds we'll see Adria and get to use the supplemental list for the first time as well 8-)
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Re: Which name list will retire all it's original names first?

#99 Postby Hammy » Sat Oct 21, 2023 5:19 pm

REDHurricane wrote:
zhukm29 wrote:
HurricaneRyan wrote:
If we get Vince and Whitney after Tammy then this would be the second time that this list exhausted the main list.


If only 01L had been named, we would be at Vince right now... which would have put us one name away from exhausting the list :sadly:


Don't worry, I would bet pretty confidently that there will be at least two more named storms this calendar year regardless, and maybe 50/50 odds we'll see Adria and get to use the supplemental list for the first time as well 8-)



It would be so ironic if, since this season didn't start on the A storm (with 01L and all) it manages to END on an A storm
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Re: Which name list will retire all it's original names first?

#100 Postby AnnularCane » Sat Oct 21, 2023 6:29 pm

We've already had 19 storms (okay, 20), which, although I suspected this year would be on the active side for a Nino, thought predictions of 19 storms were rather excessive. Um, anyway.

I just hope next time something goes unnamed, it's at the end of the year rather than at the beginning. :yayaya:
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