Which name list will retire all it's original names first?

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Re: Which name list will retire all it's original names first?

#21 Postby AJC3 » Fri May 11, 2018 12:01 am

This is what I have through 2017. It's basically an update of an earlier post in this thread by CrazyC83.

The numbers in parentheses for each list are the number of remaining and retired names, respectively.

Where there are multiple retirees beginning with the same letter from a single list, the first name listed is the original name.

List 1 (14): Ana, Claudette, Henri, Kate, Larry, Mindy, Nicholas, Odette, Peter, Rose, Sam, Teresa, Victor, Wanda
Retired (7): Bob, David, Elena/Erika, Frederic/Fabian, Gloria, Isabel, Juan/Joaquin

List 2 (12): Bonnie, Danielle, Earl, Hermine, Karl, Lisa, Nicole, Paula, Richard, Shary, Virginie, Walter
Retired (9): Allen/Andrew, Charley, Frances, Georges, Ivan/Igor, Jeanne, Mitch/Matthew, Otto, Tomas

List 3 (10): Arlene, Bret, Cindy, Emily, Gert, Jose, Ophelia, Philippe, Tammy, Vince
Retired (11): Dennis, Floyd, Harvey, Irene/Irma, Katrina, Lenny, Maria, Nate, Rita, Stan, Wilma

List 4 (17): Alberto, Beryl, Chris, Debby, Ernesto, Florence, Helene, Isaac, Leslie, Michael, Nadine, Oscar, Patty, Rafael, Tony, Valerie, William
Retired (4): Gilbert, Joan, Keith, Sandy

List 5 (11): Barry, Chantal, Erin, Gabrielle, Jerry, Karen, Pablo, Sebastien, Tanya, Van, Wendy
Retired (10): Alicia/Allison, Dean, Felix, Hugo, Ingrid/Iris, Luis, Marilyn/Michelle, Noel, Opal, Roxanne

List 6 (12): Arthur, Bertha, Edouard, Josephine, Marco, Nana, Omar, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky, Wilfred
Retired (9): Cesar, Diana, Fran, Gustav, Hortense, Isidore/Ike, Klaus, Lili, Paloma
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Re: Which name list will retire all it's original names first?

#22 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri May 18, 2018 3:20 pm

AJC3 wrote:This is what I have through 2017. It's basically an update of an earlier post in this thread by CrazyC83.

The numbers in parentheses for each list are the number of remaining and retired names, respectively.

Where there are multiple retirees beginning with the same letter from a single list, the first name listed is the original name.

List 1 (14): Ana, Claudette, Henri, Kate, Larry, Mindy, Nicholas, Odette, Peter, Rose, Sam, Teresa, Victor, Wanda
Retired (7): Bob, David, Elena/Erika, Frederic/Fabian, Gloria, Isabel, Juan/Joaquin

List 2 (12): Bonnie, Danielle, Earl, Hermine, Karl, Lisa, Nicole, Paula, Richard, Shary, Virginie, Walter
Retired (9): Allen/Andrew, Charley, Frances, Georges, Ivan/Igor, Jeanne, Mitch/Matthew, Otto, Tomas

List 3 (10): Arlene, Bret, Cindy, Emily, Gert, Jose, Ophelia, Philippe, Tammy, Vince
Retired (11): Dennis, Floyd, Harvey, Irene/Irma, Katrina, Lenny, Maria, Nate, Rita, Stan, Wilma

List 4 (17): Alberto, Beryl, Chris, Debby, Ernesto, Florence, Helene, Isaac, Leslie, Michael, Nadine, Oscar, Patty, Rafael, Tony, Valerie, William
Retired (4): Gilbert, Joan, Keith, Sandy

List 5 (11): Barry, Chantal, Erin, Gabrielle, Jerry, Karen, Pablo, Sebastien, Tanya, Van, Wendy
Retired (10): Alicia/Allison, Dean, Felix, Hugo, Ingrid/Iris, Luis, Marilyn/Michelle, Noel, Opal, Roxanne

List 6 (12): Arthur, Bertha, Edouard, Josephine, Marco, Nana, Omar, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky, Wilfred
Retired (9): Cesar, Diana, Fran, Gustav, Hortense, Isidore/Ike, Klaus, Lili, Paloma


Definitely advantage List 3, especially since five early names are still intact that you can guarantee will be used in all but a very dead year. The middle and latter part of that list have been decimated. But we don't see it again until 2023.

This year's list has very little in the way of retired names. Maybe in 2019 another list will jump high?
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Re: Which name list will retire all it's original names first?

#23 Postby HurricaneRyan » Sat May 19, 2018 1:30 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
AJC3 wrote:This is what I have through 2017. It's basically an update of an earlier post in this thread by CrazyC83.

The numbers in parentheses for each list are the number of remaining and retired names, respectively.

Where there are multiple retirees beginning with the same letter from a single list, the first name listed is the original name.

List 1 (14): Ana, Claudette, Henri, Kate, Larry, Mindy, Nicholas, Odette, Peter, Rose, Sam, Teresa, Victor, Wanda
Retired (7): Bob, David, Elena/Erika, Frederic/Fabian, Gloria, Isabel, Juan/Joaquin

List 2 (12): Bonnie, Danielle, Earl, Hermine, Karl, Lisa, Nicole, Paula, Richard, Shary, Virginie, Walter
Retired (9): Allen/Andrew, Charley, Frances, Georges, Ivan/Igor, Jeanne, Mitch/Matthew, Otto, Tomas

List 3 (10): Arlene, Bret, Cindy, Emily, Gert, Jose, Ophelia, Philippe, Tammy, Vince
Retired (11): Dennis, Floyd, Harvey, Irene/Irma, Katrina, Lenny, Maria, Nate, Rita, Stan, Wilma

List 4 (17): Alberto, Beryl, Chris, Debby, Ernesto, Florence, Helene, Isaac, Leslie, Michael, Nadine, Oscar, Patty, Rafael, Tony, Valerie, William
Retired (4): Gilbert, Joan, Keith, Sandy

List 5 (11): Barry, Chantal, Erin, Gabrielle, Jerry, Karen, Pablo, Sebastien, Tanya, Van, Wendy
Retired (10): Alicia/Allison, Dean, Felix, Hugo, Ingrid/Iris, Luis, Marilyn/Michelle, Noel, Opal, Roxanne

List 6 (12): Arthur, Bertha, Edouard, Josephine, Marco, Nana, Omar, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky, Wilfred
Retired (9): Cesar, Diana, Fran, Gustav, Hortense, Isidore/Ike, Klaus, Lili, Paloma


Definitely advantage List 3, especially since five early names are still intact that you can guarantee will be used in all but a very dead year. The middle and latter part of that list have been decimated. But we don't see it again until 2023.

This year's list has very little in the way of retired names. Maybe in 2019 another list will jump high?


I feel like with List 5, which has ALWAYS retired a name off its list each use (even in 1983 which was the quietest season ever in the modern atlantic era and 2013, which was the most infamously dead season across the globe), could easily get Gabrielle, Jerry or Karen out in their next use. Gabrielle has been a major hurricane once before and if done right, could do major damage. J is right next to I as well, and we've seen three J names take the axe since the beginning of the active era, more so than H. So J has a bigger shot than H does at retirement it seems, as it took 21 years between Hortense and Harvey (although Hanna still should have been retired).
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Re: Which name list will retire all it's original names first?

#24 Postby AJC3 » Tue Jul 09, 2019 10:12 pm

(Updated through the end of the 2018 season - List 4 is still in last place, but increases its number of original retirees from 4 to 6)

The numbers in parentheses for each list are the number of remaining and retired names, respectively.

Where there are multiple retirees beginning with the same letter from a single list, the first name listed is the original name.

List 1 (14): Ana, Claudette, Henri, Kate, Larry, Mindy, Nicholas, Odette, Peter, Rose, Sam, Teresa, Victor, Wanda
Retired (7): Bob, David, Elena/Erika, Frederic/Fabian, Gloria, Isabel, Juan/Joaquin

List 2 (12): Bonnie, Danielle, Earl, Hermine, Karl, Lisa, Nicole, Paula, Richard, Shary, Virginie, Walter
Retired (9): Allen/Andrew, Charley, Frances, Georges, Ivan/Igor, Jeanne, Mitch/Matthew, Otto, Tomas

List 3 (10): Arlene, Bret, Cindy, Emily, Gert, Jose, Ophelia, Philippe, Tammy, Vince
Retired (11): Dennis, Floyd, Harvey, Irene/Irma, Katrina, Lenny, Maria, Nate, Rita, Stan, Wilma

List 4 (15): Alberto, Beryl, Chris, Debby, Ernesto, Helene, Isaac, Leslie, Nadine, Oscar, Patty, Rafael, Tony, Valerie, William
Retired (6): Florence, Gilbert, Joan, Keith, Michael, Sandy

List 5 (11): Barry, Chantal, Erin, Gabrielle, Jerry, Karen, Pablo, Sebastien, Tanya, Van, Wendy
Retired (10): Alicia/Allison, Dean, Felix, Hugo, Ingrid/Iris, Luis, Marilyn/Michelle, Noel, Opal, Roxanne

List 6 (12): Arthur, Bertha, Edouard, Josephine, Marco, Nana, Omar, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky, Wilfred
Retired (9): Cesar, Diana, Fran, Gustav, Hortense, Isidore/Ike, Klaus, Lili, Paloma
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Re: Which name list will retire all it's original names first?

#25 Postby SconnieCane » Wed Jul 10, 2019 12:32 pm

Yeah, 2018 really helped the previously benign list 4 catch up to the pack. IMO Gordon (which by the way is missing from your post) should have been gone after 1994, and Alberto was borderline with the water damage it did.
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Re: Which name list will retire all it's original names first?

#26 Postby AJC3 » Wed Jul 10, 2019 11:33 pm

SconnieCane wrote:Yeah, 2018 really helped the previously benign list 4 catch up to the pack. IMO Gordon (which by the way is missing from your post) should have been gone after 1994, and Alberto was borderline with the water damage it did.


The reason Gordon isn't on line 1 next to list 4 is because It wasn't on NHC's original set of six TC name lists in 1979 (it replaced Gilbert after the 1988 season). And, of course, the reason it's not anywhere on line 2 is because it hasn't been retired yet.
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Re: Which name list will retire all it's original names first?

#27 Postby DioBrando » Fri Jul 19, 2019 1:50 pm

Deffo this year's list
It managed to get names kicked out every time it was used

I think Humberto and Karen would get kicked out this year based on gut instinct
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Re: Which name list will retire all it's original names first?

#28 Postby AJC3 » Fri Jul 19, 2019 8:06 pm

Another way to visualize the List 3 vs. List 5 debate is to arrange the names by their ordinal place in each list.

To me, what stands out is that you would need twice as many seasons with 18+ NS to even have a chance at retiring the "higher" letters on List 5, compared to List 3. While it's certainly possible that List 5 could pull ahead of List 3 over the next couple of decades, I would think in the long run (And I mean LONG after we're all pushing up daisies), that list 3 has the edge over list 5.

# has yet to be retired
# has been retired

List 3: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21

List 5: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6,7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21
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Re: Which name list will retire all it's original names first?

#29 Postby DioBrando » Sun Jul 21, 2019 10:05 am

list 3 is still overrated tbh

of list 5, if any original names will get kicked out this year, who do you think has the best chance and why?
and how far does list 6 have to go?
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Re: Which name list will retire all it's original names first?

#30 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Jul 21, 2019 7:36 pm

One challenge is that you need a mixture of really quiet seasons and hyperactive seasons to get the lists cleaned out.

Of the years that retired the A name (1957, 1972, 1977, 1980, 1983, 1992, 2001), only 1980 and 2001 were near to above average - 1980 had a slow start then bang, while 2011 it was an early June storm that became an epic flood disaster. Also, under current naming practices, it is certainly possible some of them would have received a name deeper in the alphabet in the earlier years.

Even for B names (1965, 1967 and 1991) they were all slow years overall. That's not to say we can't get a big landfalling storm in June or July, since that is often what it would take...

Meanwhile, deep in the alphabet you need hyperactive seasons. You're not going to get R, S or W names retired on other lists (all are gone from List 3) unless you have at least 17 named storms in a season (the only other names retired that deep are Roxanne, Sandy and Tomas, all of which were in seasons with 19 storms), and even then often you're talking a late October or a November hurricane. The only hurricanes that peaked in November that are retired are Lenny, Michelle, Noel, Paloma and Otto.

List 1 is one that has everything from Kate onward left, so one hyperactive year in that list (like 2021) could really do some damage. It's been hindered by a whole bunch of slow years - 1997 and 2009 especially, but one big year could really do damage in the bottom of the list especially if it gets to Kate by mid-season. List 5 has been the most efficient as it has never gone without retiring something, even though it had years like 1983 and 2013 that were very slow.
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Re: Which name list will retire all it's original names first?

#31 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Jul 21, 2019 7:57 pm

DioBrando wrote:list 3 is still overrated tbh

of list 5, if any original names will get kicked out this year, who do you think has the best chance and why?
and how far does list 6 have to go?


Best chance would probably be Gabrielle, Jerry and Karen, as they would be positioned to be peak season storms.
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Re: Which name list will retire all it's original names first?

#32 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Jul 21, 2019 8:13 pm

Visualizing by letter for all six lists (Greek letters are not included):

(Original - Retired - Retired twice - Never been used)

List 1 - 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21

List 2 - 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21

List 3 - 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21

List 4 - 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21

List 5 - 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21

List 6 - 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21
Last edited by CrazyC83 on Mon Jul 22, 2019 2:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Which name list will retire all it's original names first?

#33 Postby DioBrando » Mon Jul 22, 2019 6:21 am

and speaking for list 6 and list 1, they never seem to get any active seasons at all judging from the infographic u posted

isn't list 6 known for weaker storms? the strongest storm on that list was ike (a non cat 5) right?
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Re: Which name list will retire all it's original names first?

#34 Postby somethingfunny » Mon Jul 22, 2019 6:25 am

It's obviously List 3. You've not only reached W for the only time, but gotten it retired as well. Good luck with getting Vince retired in the future, but that's nothing compared to the task every other list has getting both V and W retired - none of them have even reached V yet. None of these lists will be entirely exhausted within the next century
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Re: Which name list will retire all it's original names first?

#35 Postby DioBrando » Mon Jul 22, 2019 6:51 am

List 5 takes my vote, they already kicked out many names in the top half of the list and G, J and K can be easily kicked out too
Then 3 will follow behind by a small margin (i.e. the overrated list)
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Re: Which name list will retire all it's original names first?

#36 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Jul 22, 2019 1:57 pm

DioBrando wrote:and speaking for list 6 and list 1, they never seem to get any active seasons at all judging from the infographic u posted

isn't list 6 known for weaker storms? the strongest storm on that list was ike (a non cat 5) right?


Lowest pressure on that list was Edouard 1996 (933 mb). Strongest storms on that list is a tie between Edouard 1996, Lili 2002, Ike 2008 and Gonzalo 2014 (all 125 kt).
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Re: Which name list will retire all it's original names first?

#37 Postby DioBrando » Mon Jul 22, 2019 5:36 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
DioBrando wrote:and speaking for list 6 and list 1, they never seem to get any active seasons at all judging from the infographic u posted

isn't list 6 known for weaker storms? the strongest storm on that list was ike (a non cat 5) right?


Lowest pressure on that list was Edouard 1996 (933 mb). Strongest storms on that list is a tie between Edouard 1996, Lili 2002, Ike 2008 and Gonzalo 2014 (all 125 kt).


933mb? what a meek lil mouse

in list 6 who do you reckon would be kicked out next? (originals only)
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Re: Which name list will retire all it's original names first?

#38 Postby HurricaneRyan » Thu Aug 08, 2019 7:17 pm

Thought I would add some thoughts for this season as we have only seen two named storms so far this year. So here are some things I have to note.

In the past two seasons, we've had a retired storm form at the very end of August. Irma in 2017 and Florence in 2018. If we get another long tracked Cape Verde that impacts land, there is a shot to get another original name retired. Chantal, Erin and Gabrielle are the earliest names on the list that could potentially be named by the end of August depending on what happens in the next couple weeks.
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Re: Which name list will retire all it's original names first?

#39 Postby DioBrando » Sun Aug 11, 2019 5:17 pm

HurricaneRyan wrote:Thought I would add some thoughts for this season as we have only seen two named storms so far this year. So here are some things I have to note.

In the past two seasons, we've had a retired storm form at the very end of August. Irma in 2017 and Florence in 2018. If we get another long tracked Cape Verde that impacts land, there is a shot to get another original name retired. Chantal, Erin and Gabrielle are the earliest names on the list that could potentially be named by the end of August depending on what happens in the next couple weeks.

For Chantal, Erin and Gabby, I'd put order them at risk of being kicked out based on how I think patterns are going at the moment:
1) Erin = Gabby
3) Chantal
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Re: Which name list will retire all it's original names first?

#40 Postby HurricaneRyan » Fri Jul 10, 2020 2:33 pm

Updating this for 2020.

This year has already had an active start. Josephine and Marco are the next two original names on the list. A lot of replacements in between them
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