Which name list will retire all it's original names first?

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Re: Which name list will retire all it's original names first?

#41 Postby zhukm29 » Fri Jul 10, 2020 6:02 pm

This year's early start, combined with the fact that list 6 has rarely gotten far, means that most of the peak season storms will happen with the original names in the middle of the list. Potential candidates (from now on) are Josephine, Marco, Nana, Omar, and everything from Rene onward (since they've never been used). With all indications so far, there's a fairly good chance that an original name could be on the chopping block.

That being said, it would be quite sad if Marco got retired, since Polo in the EPAC would lose its Atlantic counterpart without both ever existing at the same time. Although, knowing my luck, I've probably jinxed it :lol: Marco is an "M" storm after all (and it will likely get named during peak season), and "M" storms have been on a Category 5 streak recently (2019 was just one letter off with Lorenzo, and it could have been the "M" storm had TD3 strengthened just a little bit more).
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Re: Which name list will retire all it's original names first?

#42 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Jul 11, 2020 6:23 pm

zhukm29 wrote:This year's early start, combined with the fact that list 6 has rarely gotten far, means that most of the peak season storms will happen with the original names in the middle of the list. Potential candidates (from now on) are Josephine, Marco, Nana, Omar, and everything from Rene onward (since they've never been used). With all indications so far, there's a fairly good chance that an original name could be on the chopping block.

That being said, it would be quite sad if Marco got retired, since Polo in the EPAC would lose its Atlantic counterpart without both ever existing at the same time. Although, knowing my luck, I've probably jinxed it :lol: Marco is an "M" storm after all (and it will likely get named during peak season), and "M" storms have been on a Category 5 streak recently (2019 was just one letter off with Lorenzo, and it could have been the "M" storm had TD3 strengthened just a little bit more).


Excellent points. We could definitely do a number in the middle and bottom of this list with the peak season storms. It's likely Marco, Nana and Omar will be September storms. We might get one off the bottom of the list if we get a biggie later in October.
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Re: Which name list will retire all it's original names first?

#43 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Aug 01, 2020 12:20 am

Now with a record busy start, we'll be dealing with almost all original names in the peak season and we'll be able to potentially knock some off the bottom of the list. After all, 2020 hasn't had any clear retirement candidates (Hanna is unlikely IMO and no others are even remotely legitimate) and we're already into the middle of the list...
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Re: Which name list will retire all it's original names first?

#44 Postby Hurricane Mike » Sat Aug 01, 2020 1:17 am

CrazyC83 wrote:Now with a record busy start, we'll be dealing with almost all original names in the peak season and we'll be able to potentially knock some off the bottom of the list. After all, 2020 hasn't had any clear retirement candidates (Hanna is unlikely IMO and no others are even remotely legitimate) and we're already into the middle of the list...


There are some names that I've always been surprised have just kind of been "there" and never really amounted to much. Nana, Grace, Henri, Danielle, Cindy, Ernesto. Some came close. Fabian 2003 could have been "Grace". If they named The Perfect Storm, it would've been Henri, and Henri also could have been Hurricane Isabel in 2003. Hurricane Charley could have been Danielle in 2004, Cindy could have been Dennis 2005, and Hurricane Ernesto could have been Florence in 2018.

All just happenstance.
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Re: Which name list will retire all it's original names first?

#45 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Aug 05, 2020 5:32 pm

Hurricane Mike wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:Now with a record busy start, we'll be dealing with almost all original names in the peak season and we'll be able to potentially knock some off the bottom of the list. After all, 2020 hasn't had any clear retirement candidates (Hanna is unlikely IMO and no others are even remotely legitimate) and we're already into the middle of the list...


There are some names that I've always been surprised have just kind of been "there" and never really amounted to much. Nana, Grace, Henri, Danielle, Cindy, Ernesto. Some came close. Fabian 2003 could have been "Grace". If they named The Perfect Storm, it would've been Henri, and Henri also could have been Hurricane Isabel in 2003. Hurricane Charley could have been Danielle in 2004, Cindy could have been Dennis 2005, and Hurricane Ernesto could have been Florence in 2018.

All just happenstance.


Andrew would have been Bonnie (at least) under current naming rules as well. Also reanalysis might move the "effective" list around as well.

The "effective" retirements had all known storms, post-reanalysis, been identified:

1954 - Florence, Hazel, Norma
1955 - Brenda, Connie, Hilda, Janet
1957 - Bertha
1960 - Ethel
1961 - Carla, Inga
1963 - Helena
1964 - F____ (list had Florence), Gladys, Katy
1965 - Carol

Two of the storms would have kept their name, while Hazel and Connie were retired for a different storm in their season, Hilda nine years ahead of its time, Florence 64 years ahead of its time and Carol would have waited 11 years.
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Re: Which name list will retire all it's original names first?

#46 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Aug 06, 2020 12:54 am

As far as all the original lists to this point:

1979 - Ana, Claudette, Henri, Kate, Larry, Mindy, Nicholas, Odette, Peter, Rose, Sam, Teresa, Victor, Wanda (14)
(Retired: Bob, David, Elena/Erika, Frederic/Fabian, Gloria, Isabel, Juan/Joaquin)

1980 - Bonnie, Danielle, Earl, Hermine, Kyle, Lisa, Nicole, Paula, Richard, Shary, Virginie, Walter (12)
(Retired: Allen/Andrew, Charley, Frances, Georges, Ivan/Igor, Jeanne, Mitch/Matthew, Otto, Tomas)

1981 - Arlene, Bret, Cindy, Emily, Gert, Jose, Ophelia, Philippe, Tammy, Vince (10)
(Retired: Dennis, Floyd, Harvey, Irene/Irma, Katrina, Lenny, Maria, Nate, Rita, Stan, Wilma)

1982 - Alberto, Beryl, Chris, Debby, Ernesto, Helene, Isaac, Leslie, Nadine, Oscar, Patty, Rafael, Tony, Valerie, William (15)
(Retired: Florence, Gilbert, Joan, Keith, Michael, Sandy)

1983 - Barry, Chantal, Erin, Gabrielle, Jerry, Karen, Pablo, Sebastian, Tanya, Van, Wendy (11)
(Retired: Alicia/Allison, Dean/Dorian*, Felix, Hugo, Iris/Ingrid, Luis, Marilyn/Michelle, Noel, Opal, Roxanne)

1984 - Arthur, Bertha, Edouard, Josephine, Marco, Nana, Omar, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky, Wilfred (12)
(Retired: Cesar, Diana, Fran, Gustav, Hortense, Isidore/Ike, Klaus, Lili/Laura*, Paloma)

*presumed, to be determined in the future

Visualizing by letter for all six lists (Greek letters are not included, assumes Dorian is only retired 2019 name and Laura only 2020 name so far):

(Original - Retired - Retired twice - Never been used)

List 1 (next 2021) - 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21

List 2 (next 2022) - 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21

List 3 (next 2023) - 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21

List 4 (next 2024) - 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21

List 5 (next 2025) - 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21

List 6 (2020/2026) - 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21


Since we're already near the middle of the alphabet this year, a lot of potential to knock off some originals. After Kyle and Laura (both should be in August at this rate), the entire middle to late season will have original names with the exception of Paulette.
Last edited by CrazyC83 on Fri Sep 18, 2020 4:40 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: Which name list will retire all it's original names first?

#47 Postby zhukm29 » Tue Sep 01, 2020 4:03 pm

Here's an insane stat: it's only September 1, and every single name remaining on this list has never been used before (although Paulette was a replacement for Paloma). I don't see how list 6 will make it out of the 2020 season unscathed (unless, of course, all the remaining big ones end up with Greek names :lol: ).
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Re: Which name list will retire all it's original names first?

#48 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Sep 01, 2020 4:19 pm

zhukm29 wrote:Here's an insane stat: it's only September 1, and every single name remaining on this list has never been used before (although Paulette was a replacement for Paloma). I don't see how list 6 will make it out of the 2020 season unscathed (unless, of course, all the remaining big ones end up with Greek names :lol: ).


We likely haven't retired an original yet in 2020 though (although Laura is almost certainly retired, Laura replaced Lili), but we have 5 original names left (Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky and Wilfred) and that's peak season.
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Re: Which name list will retire all it's original names first?

#49 Postby HurricaneRyan » Thu Sep 17, 2020 12:04 am

Looks like Sally might be the only original name to get retired unless Wilfred does something really bad.
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Re: Which name list will retire all it's original names first?

#50 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Sep 17, 2020 2:04 am

HurricaneRyan wrote:Looks like Sally might be the only original name to get retired unless Wilfred does something really bad.


Or if Teddy pulls off the phase while still very strong.
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Re: Which name list will retire all it's original names first?

#51 Postby HurricaneRyan » Fri Sep 18, 2020 3:42 pm

Unless Teddy pulls a Florence or Isabel, Sally will be the only original name lock for this season. Insane to think with all the activity.
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Re: Which name list will retire all it's original names first?

#52 Postby zhukm29 » Fri Sep 18, 2020 3:44 pm

I thought 2020 could cut some more original names since we had that whole stretch of names that had never been used before. Never would I have thought that the season would be so fast that most of the big ones could be Greek. :eek:
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Re: Which name list will retire all it's original names first?

#53 Postby zhukm29 » Sun Sep 19, 2021 2:23 pm

I like how lists 1 and 6 have almost always been stuck with below-average seasons, and then suddenly 2020 and 2021 come along and they have the chance to get to storms #20 and #21 before the other lists (outside of list 3). List 1 will now have a chance to potentially retire some original names deep in the list if October is active.

Shows how much this is still a free-for-all, even though list 3 might have the edge now. To be fair though, I don't think we'll be alive when this question is finally answered (or if it is even possible, given how hard it is to retire names at the bottom of the list anyway) - but still nice to see how things have changed for our two slower name lists.

CrazyC83 wrote:Visualizing by letter for all six lists (Greek letters are not included):

(Original - Retired - Retired twice - Never been used)

List 1 - 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21

List 2 - 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21

List 3 - 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21

List 4 - 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21

List 5 - 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21

List 6 - 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21


DioBrando wrote:and speaking for list 6 and list 1, they never seem to get any active seasons at all judging from the infographic u posted

isn't list 6 known for weaker storms? the strongest storm on that list was ike (a non cat 5) right?
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Re: Which name list will retire all it's original names first?

#54 Postby Teban54 » Sun Sep 19, 2021 3:43 pm

zhukm29 wrote:I like how lists 1 and 6 have almost always been stuck with below-average seasons, and then suddenly 2020 and 2021 come along and they have the chance to get to storms #20 and #21 before the other lists (outside of list 3). List 1 will now have a chance to potentially retire some original names deep in the list if October is active.

Shows how much this is still a free-for-all, even though list 3 might have the edge now. To be fair though, I don't think we'll be alive when this question is finally answered (or if it is even possible, given how hard it is to retire names at the bottom of the list anyway) - but still nice to see how things have changed for our two slower name lists.

CrazyC83 wrote:Visualizing by letter for all six lists (Greek letters are not included):

(Original - Retired - Retired twice - Never been used)

List 1 - 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21

List 2 - 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21

List 3 - 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21

List 4 - 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21

List 5 - 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21

List 6 - 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21


DioBrando wrote:and speaking for list 6 and list 1, they never seem to get any active seasons at all judging from the infographic u posted

isn't list 6 known for weaker storms? the strongest storm on that list was ike (a non cat 5) right?

I have a bad feeling about Wanda. The track record for W storms indicate a coin flip between a nothingburger and a monster. :lol:

Seriously though, 2021 has some real potential to have at least 1 more name retired. Regardless of whether that means List 1 retired a name deep in the alphabet on first use, or the auxiliary list retiring a name on its inaugural run, they would both be really impressive.
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Re: Which name list will retire all it's original names first?

#55 Postby zhukm29 » Sun Sep 19, 2021 3:51 pm

Teban54 wrote:
zhukm29 wrote:I like how lists 1 and 6 have almost always been stuck with below-average seasons, and then suddenly 2020 and 2021 come along and they have the chance to get to storms #20 and #21 before the other lists (outside of list 3). List 1 will now have a chance to potentially retire some original names deep in the list if October is active.

Shows how much this is still a free-for-all, even though list 3 might have the edge now. To be fair though, I don't think we'll be alive when this question is finally answered (or if it is even possible, given how hard it is to retire names at the bottom of the list anyway) - but still nice to see how things have changed for our two slower name lists.

CrazyC83 wrote:Visualizing by letter for all six lists (Greek letters are not included):

(Original - Retired - Retired twice - Never been used)

List 1 - 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21

List 2 - 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21

List 3 - 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21

List 4 - 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21

List 5 - 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21

List 6 - 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21


DioBrando wrote:and speaking for list 6 and list 1, they never seem to get any active seasons at all judging from the infographic u posted

isn't list 6 known for weaker storms? the strongest storm on that list was ike (a non cat 5) right?

I have a bad feeling about Wanda. The track record for W storms indicate a coin flip between a nothingburger and a monster. :lol:

Seriously though, 2021 has some real potential to have at least 1 more name retired. Regardless of whether that means List 1 retired a name deep in the alphabet on first use, or the auxiliary list retiring a name on its inaugural run, they would both be really impressive.


Funny how both times "W" was used, one was the strongest storm of the season and the other was the weakest. :lol:

I hope Wanda doesn't go the strong storm in the Caribbean route, we definitely don't need that this year.
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Re: Which name list will retire all it's original names first?

#56 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sun Sep 19, 2021 4:12 pm

Man, you guys seem to think Wanda will be bad, huh? I personally think it'll be Victor, I mean we have not had a V name ever retired yet. But of course history only goes so far. :D
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Re: Which name list will retire all it's original names first?

#57 Postby aspen » Sun Sep 19, 2021 4:27 pm

Watch Wanda become a hurricane that hits New Jersey lol
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Re: Which name list will retire all it's original names first?

#58 Postby zhukm29 » Sun Sep 19, 2021 4:39 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:Man, you guys seem to think Wanda will be bad, huh? I personally think it'll be Victor, I mean we have not had a V name ever retired yet. But of course history only goes so far. :D


I personally have no preference haha, but Teresa, Victor, and Wanda do seem to be in the "danger zone", especially since many devastating storms have formed in early October. Victor does seem to be a name that will be assigned to something that comes out of the Caribbean, so there is a chance we could be getting our first V retirement.
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Re: Which name list will retire all it's original names first?

#59 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sun Sep 19, 2021 5:27 pm

aspen wrote:Watch Wanda become a hurricane that hits New Jersey lol


Oh noooo…. :ggreen:

That’ll certainly make some MCU fans thrilled. Well, I am an MCU fan myself, so yeah
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Re: Which name list will retire all it's original names first?

#60 Postby AJC3 » Sun Sep 19, 2021 7:30 pm

This is the status of the original lists as of the end of the 2020 season. For retired names where you see more than one retired name starting with the same letter, the original retirees are before the "/", with replacement names that have also been retired to the right.

For the bottom section, I also sorted the number of original retirees by letter, in the order of the lists that they were on.

A few observations from the lists...

(1) With the retirement of Florence in 2018, there are no original "F" storms left.
(2) A "V" storm has yet to be retired.
(3) Given its position in the list, it's surprising to me that only one original "E" storm has been retired, meaning the second (and only other) "E" storm to be retired was its replacement.

Complete list of original names left from 1979 onward:

List 1 (14): Ana, Claudette, Henri, Kate, Larry, Mindy, Nicholas, Odette, Peter, Rose, Sam, Teresa, Victor, Wanda
Retired (7): Bob, David, Elena/Erika, Frederic/Fabian, Gloria, Isabel, Juan/Joaquin

List 2 (12): Bonnie, Danielle, Earl, Hermine, Karl, Lisa, Nicole, Paula, Richard, Shary, Virginie, Walter
Retired (9): Allen/Andrew, Charley, Frances, Georges, Ivan/Igor, Jeanne, Mitch/Matthew, Otto, Tomas

List 3 (10): Arlene, Bret, Cindy, Emily, Gert, Jose, Ophelia, Philippe, Tammy, Vince
Retired (11): Dennis, Floyd, Harvey, Irene/Irma, Katrina, Lenny, Maria, Nate, Rita, Stan, Wilma

List 4 (15): Alberto, Beryl, Chris, Debby, Ernesto, Helene, Isaac, Leslie, Nadine, Oscar, Patty, Rafael, Tony, Valerie, William
Retired (6): Florence, Gilbert, Joan, Keith, Michael, Sandy

List 5 (11): Barry, Chantal, Erin, Gabrielle, Jerry, Karen, Pablo, Sebastien, Tanya, Van, Wendy
Retired (10): Alicia/Allison, Dean/Dorian, Felix, Hugo, Iris/Ingrid, Luis, Marilyn/Michelle, Noel, Opal, Roxanne

List 6 (11): Arthur, Bertha, Edouard, Josephine, Marco, Nana, Omar, Rene, Teddy, Vicky, Wilfred
Retired (10): Cesar, Diana, Fran, Gustav, Hortense, Isidore/Ike, Klaus, Lili/Laura, Paloma, Sally

Retired Left
A (2) Allen, Alicia (4) Ana, Arlene,Alberto, Arthur
B (1) Bob (5) Bonnie, Bret, Veryl, Barry, Bertha
C (2) Charley, Cesar (4) Claudette, Cindy, Chris, Chantal
D (4) David, Dennis, Dean, Diana (2) Danielle, Debby
E (1) Elena (5) Earl, Emily, Ernesto, Erin, Edouard
F (6) Frederic, Frances, Floyd, Florence, Felix, Fran (0)
G (4) Gloria, Georges, Gilbert, Gustav (2) Gert, Gabrielle
H (3) Harvey, Hugo, Hortense (3) Henri, Hermine, Helene
I (5) Isabel, Ivan, Irene, Ingrid, Isidore (1) Isaac
J (3) Juan, Jeanne, Joan (3) Jose, Jerry, Josephine
K (3) Katrina, Keith, Klaus (3) Kate, Karl, Karen
L (3) Lenny, Luis, Lili (3) Larry, Lisa, Leslie
M (4) Mitch, Maria, Michael, Marilyn (2) Mindy, Marco
N (2) Nate, Noel (2) Nicholas, Nicole, Nadine, Nana
O (2) Otto, Opal (4) Odette, Ophelia, Oscar, Omar
P (1) Paloma (5) Peter, Paula, Philippe, Patty, Pablo
R (2) Rita, Roxanne (4) Rose, Richard, Rafael, Rene
S (3) Stan, Sandy, Sally (3) Sam, Shary, Sebastien
T (1) Tomas (5) Teresa, Tammy, Tony, Tanya, Teddy
V (0) (6) Victor, Virginie, Vince, Valerie, Van, Vicky
W (1) Wilma (5) Wanda, Walter, William, Wendy, Wilfred
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