Which name list will retire all it's original names first?

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Re: Which name list will retire all it's original names first?

#61 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sun Sep 19, 2021 7:45 pm

AJC3 wrote:This is the status of the original lists as of the end of the 2020 season. For lists where you see more than one retired name starting with the same letter, the original retirees are before the "/", with replacement names that have also been retired to the right.

For the bottom section, I also sorted the number of original retirees by letter, in the order of the lists that they were on.

A few observations from the lists...

(1) With the retirement of Florence in 2018, there are no original "F" storms left.
(2) A "V" storm has yet to be retired.
(3) Given its position in the list, it's surprising to me that only one original "E" storm has been retired, meaning the second (and only other) "E" storm to be retired was its replacement.

Complete list of original names left from 1979 onward:

List 1 (14): Ana, Claudette, Henri, Kate, Larry, Mindy, Nicholas, Odette, Peter, Rose, Sam, Teresa, Victor, Wanda
Retired (7): Bob, David, Elena/Erika, Frederic/Fabian, Gloria, Isabel, Juan/Joaquin

List 2 (12): Bonnie, Danielle, Earl, Hermine, Karl, Lisa, Nicole, Paula, Richard, Shary, Virginie, Walter
Retired (9): Allen/Andrew, Charley, Frances, Georges, Ivan/Igor, Jeanne, Mitch/Matthew, Otto, Tomas

List 3 (10): Arlene, Bret, Cindy, Emily, Gert, Jose, Ophelia, Philippe, Tammy, Vince
Retired (11): Dennis, Floyd, Harvey, Irene/Irma, Katrina, Lenny, Maria, Nate, Rita, Stan, Wilma

List 4 (15): Alberto, Beryl, Chris, Debby, Ernesto, Helene, Isaac, Leslie, Nadine, Oscar, Patty, Rafael, Tony, Valerie, William
Retired (6): Florence, Gilbert, Joan, Keith, Michael, Sandy

List 5 (11): Barry, Chantal, Erin, Gabrielle, Jerry, Karen, Pablo, Sebastien, Tanya, Van, Wendy
Retired (10): Alicia/Allison, Dean/Dorian, Felix, Hugo, Iris/Ingrid, Luis, Marilyn/Michelle, Noel, Opal, Roxanne

List 6 (11): Arthur, Bertha, Edouard, Josephine, Marco, Nana, Omar, Rene, Teddy, Vicky, Wilfred
Retired (10): Cesar, Diana, Fran, Gustav, Hortense, Isidore/Ike, Klaus, Lili/Laura, Paloma, Sally

Retired Left
A (2) Allen, Alicia (4) Ana, Arlene,Alberto, Arthur
B (1) Bob (5) Bonnie, Bret, Veryl, Barry, Bertha
C (2) Charley, Cesar (4) Claudette, Cindy, Chris, Chantal
D (4) David, Dennis, Dean, Diana (2) Danielle, Debby
E (1) Elena (5) Earl, Emily, Ernesto, Erin, Edouard
F (6) Frederic, Frances, Floyd, Florence, Felix, Fran (0)
G (4) Gloria, Georges, Gilbert, Gustav (2) Gert, Gabrielle
H (3) Harvey, Hugo, Hortense (3) Henri, Hermine, Helene
I (5) Isabel, Ivan, Irene, Ingrid, Isidore (1) Isaac
J (3) Juan, Jeanne, Joan (3) Jose, Jerry, Josephine
K (3) Katrina, Keith, Klaus (3) Kate, Karl, Karen
L (3) Lenny, Luis, Lili (3) Larry, Lisa, Leslie
M (4) Mitch, Maria, Michael, Marilyn (2) Mindy, Marco
N (2) Nate, Noel (2) Nicholas, Nicole, Nadine, Nana
O (2) Otto, Opal (4) Odette, Ophelia, Oscar, Omar
P (1) Paloma (5) Peter, Paula, Philippe, Patty, Pablo
R (2) Rita, Roxanne (4) Rose, Richard, Rafael, Rene
S (3) Stan, Sandy, Sally (3) Sam, Shary, Sebastien
T (1) Tomas (5) Teresa, Tammy, Tony, Tanya, Teddy
V (0) (6) Victor, Virginie, Vince, Valerie, Van, Vicky
W (1) Wilma (5) Wanda, Walter, William, Wendy, Wilfred


Wow, Isaac is one extremely lucky dude. With this uncanny I curse though, I honestly would not be shocked to see Isaac say goodbye after 2024.
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Re: Which name list will retire all it's original names first?

#62 Postby Teban54 » Sun Sep 19, 2021 7:51 pm

Assuming Ida gets retired, every list except List 4 will have exactly 2 I names retired, no more, no less:

List 1: Isabel/Ida/(?)
List 2: Ivan/Igor/Ian
List 3: Irene/Irma/Idalia
List 4: Isaac
List 5: Iris/Ingrid/Imelda
List 6: Isidore/Ike/Isaias

That's actually a lot more bizarre than "oh we retire a lot of I names" lol.
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Re: Which name list will retire all it's original names first?

#63 Postby zhukm29 » Sun Sep 19, 2021 7:55 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:
AJC3 wrote:This is the status of the original lists as of the end of the 2020 season. For lists where you see more than one retired name starting with the same letter, the original retirees are before the "/", with replacement names that have also been retired to the right.

For the bottom section, I also sorted the number of original retirees by letter, in the order of the lists that they were on.

A few observations from the lists...

(1) With the retirement of Florence in 2018, there are no original "F" storms left.
(2) A "V" storm has yet to be retired.
(3) Given its position in the list, it's surprising to me that only one original "E" storm has been retired, meaning the second (and only other) "E" storm to be retired was its replacement.

Complete list of original names left from 1979 onward:

List 1 (14): Ana, Claudette, Henri, Kate, Larry, Mindy, Nicholas, Odette, Peter, Rose, Sam, Teresa, Victor, Wanda
Retired (7): Bob, David, Elena/Erika, Frederic/Fabian, Gloria, Isabel, Juan/Joaquin

List 2 (12): Bonnie, Danielle, Earl, Hermine, Karl, Lisa, Nicole, Paula, Richard, Shary, Virginie, Walter
Retired (9): Allen/Andrew, Charley, Frances, Georges, Ivan/Igor, Jeanne, Mitch/Matthew, Otto, Tomas

List 3 (10): Arlene, Bret, Cindy, Emily, Gert, Jose, Ophelia, Philippe, Tammy, Vince
Retired (11): Dennis, Floyd, Harvey, Irene/Irma, Katrina, Lenny, Maria, Nate, Rita, Stan, Wilma

List 4 (15): Alberto, Beryl, Chris, Debby, Ernesto, Helene, Isaac, Leslie, Nadine, Oscar, Patty, Rafael, Tony, Valerie, William
Retired (6): Florence, Gilbert, Joan, Keith, Michael, Sandy

List 5 (11): Barry, Chantal, Erin, Gabrielle, Jerry, Karen, Pablo, Sebastien, Tanya, Van, Wendy
Retired (10): Alicia/Allison, Dean/Dorian, Felix, Hugo, Iris/Ingrid, Luis, Marilyn/Michelle, Noel, Opal, Roxanne

List 6 (11): Arthur, Bertha, Edouard, Josephine, Marco, Nana, Omar, Rene, Teddy, Vicky, Wilfred
Retired (10): Cesar, Diana, Fran, Gustav, Hortense, Isidore/Ike, Klaus, Lili/Laura, Paloma, Sally

Retired Left
A (2) Allen, Alicia (4) Ana, Arlene,Alberto, Arthur
B (1) Bob (5) Bonnie, Bret, Veryl, Barry, Bertha
C (2) Charley, Cesar (4) Claudette, Cindy, Chris, Chantal
D (4) David, Dennis, Dean, Diana (2) Danielle, Debby
E (1) Elena (5) Earl, Emily, Ernesto, Erin, Edouard
F (6) Frederic, Frances, Floyd, Florence, Felix, Fran (0)
G (4) Gloria, Georges, Gilbert, Gustav (2) Gert, Gabrielle
H (3) Harvey, Hugo, Hortense (3) Henri, Hermine, Helene
I (5) Isabel, Ivan, Irene, Ingrid, Isidore (1) Isaac
J (3) Juan, Jeanne, Joan (3) Jose, Jerry, Josephine
K (3) Katrina, Keith, Klaus (3) Kate, Karl, Karen
L (3) Lenny, Luis, Lili (3) Larry, Lisa, Leslie
M (4) Mitch, Maria, Michael, Marilyn (2) Mindy, Marco
N (2) Nate, Noel (2) Nicholas, Nicole, Nadine, Nana
O (2) Otto, Opal (4) Odette, Ophelia, Oscar, Omar
P (1) Paloma (5) Peter, Paula, Philippe, Patty, Pablo
R (2) Rita, Roxanne (4) Rose, Richard, Rafael, Rene
S (3) Stan, Sandy, Sally (3) Sam, Shary, Sebastien
T (1) Tomas (5) Teresa, Tammy, Tony, Tanya, Teddy
V (0) (6) Victor, Virginie, Vince, Valerie, Van, Vicky
W (1) Wilma (5) Wanda, Walter, William, Wendy, Wilfred


Wow, Isaac is one extremely lucky dude. With this uncanny I curse though, I honestly would not be shocked to see Isaac say goodbye after 2024.


You see, there's the "I" curse, but there's also the list 4 curse in that list 4 can never get anything retired for some reason. That being said, Isaac very well could have been retired in 2012 but was overshadowed by Sandy.

Also, it seems Sally was mistakenly added to the retired list for "S"... definitely should have been retired in 2020 though - unlike Isaac, it's not like we were running out of good "S" names (but I guess similar to Isaac it was overshadowed by other storms).
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Re: Which name list will retire all it's original names first?

#64 Postby zhukm29 » Sun Sep 19, 2021 8:00 pm

Also, I get why it isn't included, but honestly I wouldn't mind if Iota is considered as part of the "I" curse count... I mean, it is literally the letter "I" in the Greek alphabet :wink:

Who knew Iota would get retired before Isaac would?
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Re: Which name list will retire all it's original names first?

#65 Postby AnnularCane » Sun Sep 19, 2021 8:02 pm

Iota may be proof of the I curse. :lol:
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Re: Which name list will retire all it's original names first?

#66 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sun Sep 19, 2021 8:04 pm

After I, it looks like D, G, and M will be the second easiest to sweep. Personally, unless we get another year like 2019 when the D storm does not happen until August, I think sweeping clear the original G and M names could be more feasible sooner rather than later compared to the D names. Interesting enough, the current og G names both happened to be the names of very powerful fish Cat 4s at one point, although they were nowhere near close to hitting land.
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Re: Which name list will retire all it's original names first?

#67 Postby Teban54 » Sun Sep 19, 2021 8:15 pm

Since the thread is active again, I'm trying to update CrazyC83's colored lists (last updated September 18, 2020) which I always found effective visually. One change is that I replaced numbers with letters which are more intuitive.

Ida is assumed to be retired, while Elsa, Fred, Grace, Henri, Larry and Nicholas are assumed to stay on the list.

(Updated October 31, 2021)

(Original - Retired - Retired twice - Never been used)

List 1 (2021/2027) - A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K, L, M, N, O, P, R, S, T, V, W

List 2 (next 2022) - A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K, L, M, N, O, P, R, S, T, V, W

List 3 (next 2023) - A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K, L, M, N, O, P, R, S, T, V, W

List 4 (next 2024) - A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K, L, M, N, O, P, R, S, T, V, W

List 5 (next 2025) - A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K, L, M, N, O, P, R, S, T, V, W

List 6 (next 2026) - A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K, L, M, N, O, P, R, S, T, V, W

Auxiliary List - A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K, L, M, N, O, P, R, S, T, V, W

Greek Alphabet (legacy) - α, β, γ, δ, ε, ζ, η, θ, ι



Despite high hopes for the hyperactive 2020 to retire an original name from List 6, that didn't happen since Laura was a replacement name. Sally was close.

Just like 2020, 2021 is running through most of List 1's original names (even more than List 6) without retiring any of them, though the last 4 letters still have a chance (especially T, V, W). If the V or W names end up retired, it will give List 3 some serious competition in being the first list to retire all names, since the W advantage will be gone. List 1 will still have a lot of catchup to do from K onwards, though.
Last edited by Teban54 on Sun Oct 31, 2021 2:34 am, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: Which name list will retire all it's original names first?

#68 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sun Sep 19, 2021 9:15 pm

Fred, Elsa, whatever replaces Ida, Alex, Ian, Martin, Idalia, Andrea, Dexter, Imelda, and Isaias will have the chance to compete for the first name in Atlantic basin history since 1979 to be the third in its lineage to get retired!
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Re: Which name list will retire all it's original names first?

#69 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Sep 19, 2021 10:00 pm

Since it is unlikely Odette (even if it comes back), Peter or Rose will get into a retirement position, there's only four names left to get an original off. The only sure-fire (and likely) retirement so far, Ida, was itself a replacement.
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Re: Which name list will retire all it's original names first?

#70 Postby Category5Kaiju » Mon Sep 20, 2021 5:30 am

Forgot to mention Leah has the chance to also get retired as the third in its naming sequence earlier…

Also, speaking of 98L (which barring any surprise storms should earn the name Sam), if in the purely hypothetical case at this point it were to do what some models have been hinting at and actually affect the Lesser Antilles as a major hurricane….we may end up retiring an original S name, leaving S as the letter with most retirees after M.
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Re: Which name list will retire all it's original names first?

#71 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Mon Sep 20, 2021 9:16 am

2005. I am sorry but, how are you going to retire a W name otherwise lol.
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Re: Which name list will retire all it's original names first?

#72 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Sep 20, 2021 9:22 am

zhukm29 wrote:Also, I get why it isn't included, but honestly I wouldn't mind if Iota is considered as part of the "I" curse count... I mean, it is literally the letter "I" in the Greek alphabet :wink:

Who knew Iota would get retired before Isaac would?


That's my name! :lol:

Sandy overshadowed Isaac (me) in 2012 . . .
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Re: Which name list will retire all it's original names first?

#73 Postby DioBrando » Sat Sep 25, 2021 3:25 pm

Teban54 wrote:Since the thread is active again, I'm trying to update CrazyC83's colored lists (last updated September 18, 2020) which I always found effective visually. One change is that I replaced numbers with letters which are more intuitive.

Ida is assumed to be retired, while Elsa, Fred, Grace, Henri, Larry and Nicholas are assumed to stay on the list.

(Original - Retired - Retired twice - Never been used)

List 1 (2021/2027) - A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K, L, M, N, O, P, R, S, T, V, W

List 2 (next 2022) - A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K, L, M, N, O, P, R, S, T, V, W

List 3 (next 2023) - A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K, L, M, N, O, P, R, S, T, V, W

List 4 (next 2024) - A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K, L, M, N, O, P, R, S, T, V, W

List 5 (next 2025) - A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K, L, M, N, O, P, R, S, T, V, W

List 6 (next 2026) - A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K, L, M, N, O, P, R, S, T, V, W

Auxiliary List - A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K, L, M, N, O, P, R, S, T, V, W

Greek Alphabet (legacy) - α, β, γ, δ, ε, ζ, η, θ, ι



Despite high hopes for the hyperactive 2020 to retire an original name from List 6, that didn't happen since Laura was a replacement name. Sally was close.

Just like 2020, 2021 is running through most of List 1's original names (even more than List 6) without retiring any of them, though the last 4 letters still have a chance (especially T, V, W). If the V or W names end up retired, it will give List 3 some serious competition in being the first list to retire all names, since the W advantage will be gone. List 1 will still have a lot of catchup to do from K onwards, though.


ion know but i can definitely see the first retired auxiliary name this year. maybe like one of the first four names?
personally i'd say the frontrunner is list 3 or 5 based on the information you have here

edit: fixed colors as of september 25th 2021
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Re: Which name list will retire all it's original names first?

#74 Postby DioBrando » Sat Sep 25, 2021 6:32 pm

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Re: Which name list will retire all it's original names first?

#75 Postby AnnularCane » Sat Sep 25, 2021 6:43 pm

Whichever list it is, I kind of have my doubts that any of us will be around to see it happen. But you never know, I guess. :)
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Re: Which name list will retire all it's original names first?

#76 Postby DioBrando » Sat Sep 25, 2021 6:43 pm

AnnularCane wrote:Whichever list it is, I kind of have my doubts that any of us will be around to see it happen. But you never know, I guess. :)

which list are you putting your money on brah?
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Re: Which name list will retire all it's original names first?

#77 Postby AnnularCane » Sat Sep 25, 2021 6:45 pm

DioBrando wrote:
AnnularCane wrote:Whichever list it is, I kind of have my doubts that any of us will be around to see it happen. But you never know, I guess. :)

which list are you putting your money on brah?



I have no idea, so probably the list with the fewest original names, and probably not much money. :lol:
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Re: Which name list will retire all it's original names first?

#78 Postby DioBrando » Sat Sep 25, 2021 6:46 pm

AnnularCane wrote:
DioBrando wrote:
AnnularCane wrote:Whichever list it is, I kind of have my doubts that any of us will be around to see it happen. But you never know, I guess. :)

which list are you putting your money on brah?



I have no idea, so probably the list with the fewest original names, and probably not much money. :lol:

so 1981 then
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Re: Which name list will retire all it's original names first?

#79 Postby AJC3 » Sat Sep 25, 2021 7:35 pm

AnnularCane wrote:Whichever list it is, I kind of have my doubts that any of us will be around to see it happen. But you never know, I guess. :)


Taken from my post on page 1 of this thread (from a few years ago...)

AJC3 wrote:None of us will be alive to see how this turns out. In fact, the great-great-great-grandmother of the clairvoyant who will need to contact me after I'm dead to let me know which list winds up retiring all its names first hasn't been born yet.
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Re: Which name list will retire all it's original names first?

#80 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sun Sep 26, 2021 11:31 am

We’ll see what ultimately happens, but *if* the two current AOIs in the MDR become Victor and Wanda and do not amount to any significant land threat, it’s interesting to believe that going forward in October to the rest of the season that there’s a very real chance that we may get a powerhouse hurricane in the West Atlantic with an auxiliary list name and end up getting its name retired, with List 1’s only true lock in retirement from this year being a non-original name (Ida).
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