Will the WGOM have any more threats this season?

[South Texas Storms]

Now that the first cold front has moved through TX, do you think we will have any more WGOM threats this season?
With the troughs already starting to get stronger, it will be tough to get a system to move into Mexico or TX. What are your thoughts on this? I think our chances our decreasing pretty quickly now.

[gatorcane]

Now that the first cold front has moved through TX, do you think we will have any more WGOM threats this season?
With the troughs already starting to get stronger, it will be tough to get a system to move into Mexico or TX. What are your thoughts on this? I think our chances our decreasing pretty quickly now.

It's definitely possible still. What's ironic with Texas is that there was a heat ridge ("death" ridge) for most of the summer and now there are strong troughs on the way, so the ridge has been replaced by a trough which could also deflect systems.

We definitely seem to have a troughy pattern out there but I would not rule out the possibility something can still impact Texas, especially because all it takes is one that slips through the troughs which is easier than trying to penetrate the death ridge.

One example that comes to mind is Hurricane IKE which hit Texas in mid September of 2008:

9 Hurricane IKE 1-15 SEP 125 935 4

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

[underthwx]

yes..i think its possilble..brownsville afd makes mention of possible development next week..




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[somethingfunny]

The long-range GFS is somewhat indicative of a hurricane coming towards the Texas Coast in about two weeks....but that's two (or more) weeks away.

I think that the most likely scenario for Texas to get a tropical deluge this season is from an EPAC major getting picked up by an October trough and coming NNE across Mexico. The Atlantic season ain't over for us yet though.

[Portastorm]

WGOM threats? Certainly still possible. IMO, this weekend's front is a sign that the westerlies are starting to show more influence on the CONUS weather pattern. Texas isn't free and clear ... but I do think whatever chances we might have are perhaps a bit lower as a result of westerlies showing increasing influence.

We did see a similar September back in 2008 (early season frontal passage) and then Ike came into the picture. Never say never.

[tolakram]

Just some examples:

Ike, 9/13
Humberto, 9/13
Gilbert, 9/17
Beulah, 9/20
Rita, 9/24

If you review the list below you'll see a lot of big storms hitting Texas in late September.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/txhur.pdf

[northjaxpro]

The Gulf of Mexico and the Western Caribbean are almost always breeding areas for tropical cyclones to develop, especially as we head into last 1/3 of the season (October -November). However, most of these storms that form in these areas by this time will get influenced by westerlies in the mid latitudes and impact EGOM, the Florida peninsula and Bahamas before going out to sea.

But, I think it is quite possible we may see a couple of more tropical systems in the GOM this month. Portastorm is right in that there are early signs that the Fall pattern with the westerlies, as seen this weekend with a front moving through Texas, may be trying to set into place. If that is the case, then the chances of seeing any tropical system impacting Texas out of the Western Caribbean or GOM will be reduced significantly.

[Portastorm]

Just some examples:

Ike, 9/13
Humberto, 9/13
Gilbert, 9/17
Beulah, 9/20
Rita, 9/24

If you review the list below you'll see a lot of big storms hitting Texas in late September.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/txhur.pdf

Wonder in these examples how many occurred in seasons where Nina was weakening to neutral, the NAO was negative, and we had a negative PDO ... ala this season.

[ROCK]

Oh we are far from done as we have gotten hit often in mid to late Sept.....Numbers fall way off after Oct....this frontal passage wont crank up the westerlies that much....Usually takes some real good FPs to get them going....IMO...

[Ptarmigan]

Never say never.

[7&COUNTING]

Weather Channel saying that some models are predicting possible tropical system on the Gulf soon. Sorry new here, don't know how to post links just yet..