Reanalysis questions

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 33393
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: Reanalysis questions

#401 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Oct 20, 2022 11:56 am

Category5Kaiju wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:The 1944 Great Atlantic Hurricane was found to be a Category 5 from a HURDAT analysis, currently making this storm the only Category 5 in the 1940s.


They found that 919 mb from a ship that wasn't known in the initial reanalysis was legitimate (with 15 kt winds concurrently meaning 918 mb). It's possible it was stronger still as one ship recorded 914 mb or lower, but they still haven't figured out the legitimacy of that. One researcher suggests 909 mb, which would support about 150 kt. (That would be the strongest storm ever in the Atlantic north of 27N.)

I suspect it will be at least another year before we get to 1971-1975. One thing I believe from 1972 is that Agnes I think will be reclassified as a subtropical cyclone for much of its life (I think it was an 80 kt hurricane when it hit Florida, then likely expanded and restructured itself, but I don't think it was ever frontal).


The two storms I am very curious to see how they handle are Edith and Carmen. I wonder if Edith's central pressure was lower than 943 mbar (assuming it retains its Cat 5 status), and I am also wondering if Carmen could be reanalyzed to be stronger either in terms of windspeed, pressure, or perhaps both


I'm going to guess Edith is held at 943 mb, and that the intensity is lowered. I'd say 130 kt as it was a pretty small storm at the time.
1 likes   

ncforecaster89
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 219
Age: 53
Joined: Sat Oct 20, 2018 12:32 pm
Contact:

Re: Reanalysis questions

#402 Postby ncforecaster89 » Thu Oct 20, 2022 9:30 pm

Speaking of the 1971-1975 period, I’m most interested as to whether or not they upgrade Eloise 1975 to a Cat 4 landfall. Given the relatively small RMW, rapid intensification through landfall, as well as the extreme wind gusts measured, I’d argue for such an increase in BT intensity and classification.
3 likes   

ljmac75
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 60
Joined: Fri Apr 28, 2023 12:30 am

Re: Reanalysis questions

#403 Postby ljmac75 » Wed May 17, 2023 4:48 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
Falling Soil wrote:Request from you lovely re-analyzing mets out there: Hurricane Anita 1977. I've wondered for years if a Cat 5 ever made landfall west of the Mississippi River, and this is the only candidate.. ADVthanksANCE!


Anita made landfall in Mexico though, well south of the US border with minimal impact in Texas (not even TS conditions). I know there isn't a lot of data from 1977 on the Internet (the larger scale Storm Wallets began in 1978). The 926 mb pressure reading from Recon just before landfall would suggest an intensity of 145 kt though given its relatively small size and presence of a strong ridge nearby.


It has been a while since this post but I have been looking for information on Anita in my spare time. Something I have found is that although recon measured a 926 mb pressure about 5 hours before landfall, apparently an air force recon plane went in and measured a 931 mb pressure about 2 hours before landfall, indicating weakening. I have not found any details about this last recon flight but it is listed in this document on page 30. Very little about Anita is available in the storm wallet archive as of now which makes finding these kinds of things very tricky.
1 likes   

USTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2389
Joined: Sun Aug 12, 2007 3:45 am
Location: Florida State University

Re: Reanalysis questions

#404 Postby USTropics » Wed May 17, 2023 7:14 pm

ljmac75 wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:
Falling Soil wrote:Request from you lovely re-analyzing mets out there: Hurricane Anita 1977. I've wondered for years if a Cat 5 ever made landfall west of the Mississippi River, and this is the only candidate.. ADVthanksANCE!


Anita made landfall in Mexico though, well south of the US border with minimal impact in Texas (not even TS conditions). I know there isn't a lot of data from 1977 on the Internet (the larger scale Storm Wallets began in 1978). The 926 mb pressure reading from Recon just before landfall would suggest an intensity of 145 kt though given its relatively small size and presence of a strong ridge nearby.


It has been a while since this post but I have been looking for information on Anita in my spare time. Something I have found is that although recon measured a 926 mb pressure about 5 hours before landfall, apparently an air force recon plane went in and measured a 931 mb pressure about 2 hours before landfall, indicating weakening. I have not found any details about this last recon flight but it is listed in this document on page 30. Very little about Anita is available in the storm wallet archive as of now which makes finding these kinds of things very tricky.


Here are 1 second passes from that last recon flight - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing
You can grab this data from AOML's ftp server - https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Storm_pag ... ssion.html
1 likes   

ljmac75
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 60
Joined: Fri Apr 28, 2023 12:30 am

Re: Reanalysis questions

#405 Postby ljmac75 » Wed May 17, 2023 9:48 pm

USTropics wrote:
ljmac75 wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:
Anita made landfall in Mexico though, well south of the US border with minimal impact in Texas (not even TS conditions). I know there isn't a lot of data from 1977 on the Internet (the larger scale Storm Wallets began in 1978). The 926 mb pressure reading from Recon just before landfall would suggest an intensity of 145 kt though given its relatively small size and presence of a strong ridge nearby.


It has been a while since this post but I have been looking for information on Anita in my spare time. Something I have found is that although recon measured a 926 mb pressure about 5 hours before landfall, apparently an air force recon plane went in and measured a 931 mb pressure about 2 hours before landfall, indicating weakening. I have not found any details about this last recon flight but it is listed in this document on page 30. Very little about Anita is available in the storm wallet archive as of now which makes finding these kinds of things very tricky.


Here are 1 second passes from that last recon flight - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing
You can grab this data from AOML's ftp server - https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Storm_pag ... ssion.html


This is not the data for the recon flight in question. The flight linked left the storm at 150z, while the last one was in the storm past 925z. Also, it was an air force recon plane and not a NOAA plane. I have checked the AOML site already.
1 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 33393
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: Reanalysis questions

#406 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Jun 05, 2023 11:03 pm

ljmac75 wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:
Falling Soil wrote:Request from you lovely re-analyzing mets out there: Hurricane Anita 1977. I've wondered for years if a Cat 5 ever made landfall west of the Mississippi River, and this is the only candidate.. ADVthanksANCE!


Anita made landfall in Mexico though, well south of the US border with minimal impact in Texas (not even TS conditions). I know there isn't a lot of data from 1977 on the Internet (the larger scale Storm Wallets began in 1978). The 926 mb pressure reading from Recon just before landfall would suggest an intensity of 145 kt though given its relatively small size and presence of a strong ridge nearby.


It has been a while since this post but I have been looking for information on Anita in my spare time. Something I have found is that although recon measured a 926 mb pressure about 5 hours before landfall, apparently an air force recon plane went in and measured a 931 mb pressure about 2 hours before landfall, indicating weakening. I have not found any details about this last recon flight but it is listed in this document on page 30. Very little about Anita is available in the storm wallet archive as of now which makes finding these kinds of things very tricky.


If it dropped to 931 a couple hours before landfall (and 3 hours after the peak of 926), then the landfall pressure was likely around 934 mb based on continued weakening in the absence of any additional data. That would suggest an intensity around 130 kt at landfall. If 931 was used as the landfall pressure, the likely landfall intensity was 135 kt.
0 likes   

ljmac75
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 60
Joined: Fri Apr 28, 2023 12:30 am

Re: Reanalysis questions

#407 Postby ljmac75 » Tue Jun 06, 2023 9:31 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
ljmac75 wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:
Anita made landfall in Mexico though, well south of the US border with minimal impact in Texas (not even TS conditions). I know there isn't a lot of data from 1977 on the Internet (the larger scale Storm Wallets began in 1978). The 926 mb pressure reading from Recon just before landfall would suggest an intensity of 145 kt though given its relatively small size and presence of a strong ridge nearby.


It has been a while since this post but I have been looking for information on Anita in my spare time. Something I have found is that although recon measured a 926 mb pressure about 5 hours before landfall, apparently an air force recon plane went in and measured a 931 mb pressure about 2 hours before landfall, indicating weakening. I have not found any details about this last recon flight but it is listed in this document on page 30. Very little about Anita is available in the storm wallet archive as of now which makes finding these kinds of things very tricky.


If it dropped to 931 a couple hours before landfall (and 3 hours after the peak of 926), then the landfall pressure was likely around 934 mb based on continued weakening in the absence of any additional data. That would suggest an intensity around 130 kt at landfall. If 931 was used as the landfall pressure, the likely landfall intensity was 135 kt.


I have found a document containing a best track graphic for Anita. The document contains the best track in figure 5, although it appears it may have been cut out from another paper that I do not know where to find. It's hard to tell exactly, but I think this graphic has a landfall intensity of 125 kt and ~935 mbar pressure. Of course, the wind estimates here are probably off through much of the track.
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Google Adsense [Bot], NessFrogVenom, tolakram and 65 guests