2012 EPAC season

[Yellow Evan]

I know it is a bit early and not many people care about the EPAC , but what are your thoughts and predictions for the season on the other side of North America.

[cycloneye]

As Storm2k doesn't do polls for the EPAC, my take about the 2012 season is to be more active than the past two years with 17/11/6.

[cycloneye]

2012 EPAC names:

Aletta
Bud
Carlotta
Daniel
Emilia
Fabio
Gilma
Hector
Ileana
John
Kristy
Lane
Miriam
Norman
Olivia
Paul
Rosa
Sergio
Tara
Vicente
Willa
Xavier
Yolanda
Zeke

Of those names the big ones IMO will be Carlotta,Emilia,Ileana,Lane and Norman. When I say big ones I mean in terms of landfalls as cat 2 or higher.

[Yellow Evan]

Five Cat 2+ landfalls? Really? IMO, I see a 15-8-5 season.

[cycloneye]

Less than a month left for the season to start. At this time,the models dont show anything forming in the Eastern Pacific anytime soon.

[cycloneye]

GFS is hinting on something forming off Central America on long range,but we know the drill about waiting for other models to show the same,to then jump to the development bandwagon. The season is less than 15 days to start so we will see if the first named storm (Aletta) is born or not in an early season timeframe.

[Yellow Evan]

GFS is hinting on something forming off Central America on long range,but we know the drill about waiting for other models to show the same,to then jump to the development bandwagon. The season is less than 15 days to start so we will see if the first named storm (Aletta) is born or not in an early season timeframe.

Likely one of those model storms, but who knows?

[Yellow Evan]

FYI, east of 140, no storm has formed earlier than May 12 since 1949. Before that, there were a few storms off the Central American coast before May, including one in 1922.

[Ptarmigan]

East Pacific Hurricanes can affect America especially during El Nino. I do watch them as a result.

[Hurricane Jed]

Hurricane Madeline in 1998 for one. I remember the flooding quite well. Even though that wasn't an El Nino year.

[Yellow Evan]

Hurricane Madeline in 1998 for one. I remember the flooding quite well. Even though that wasn't an El Nino year.

Madeline was only a minor roll in that flood. Nora 97 and Kathleen 76 are better examples IMO.

[Ptarmigan]

Hurricane Madeline in 1998 for one. I remember the flooding quite well. Even though that wasn't an El Nino year.

Madeline was only a minor roll in that flood. Nora 97 and Kathleen 76 are better examples IMO.

Rosa was what led to October 1994 Flood.

[Aslkahuna]

Lester in 1992 most certainly affected the US with 78 mph wind gusts in SE AZ. Lester, in fact, was the first named storm of 1992 to affect the US arriving in AZ 4 hours before Andrew hit FL. Other EPAC storms to affect the US were Raymond in 1989, Joanne in 1972, Katrina (yes Katrina used to be an EPAC name) in 1967, unnamed storm in 1939 and an unnamed hurricane in 1858. Olivia's remnants brought flooding rains to SE AZ in 2000 and another Olivia brought flooding rains to CA/NV/UT in 1982.

Steve

[Ptarmigan]

Lester in 1992 most certainly affected the US with 78 mph wind gusts in SE AZ. Lester, in fact, was the first named storm of 1992 to affect the US arriving in AZ 4 hours before Andrew hit FL. Other EPAC storms to affect the US were Raymond in 1989, Joanne in 1972, Katrina (yes Katrina used to be an EPAC name) in 1967, unnamed storm in 1939 and an unnamed hurricane in 1858. Olivia's remnants brought flooding rains to SE AZ in 2000 and another Olivia brought flooding rains to CA/NV/UT in 1982.

Steve

Interesting you mentioned Lester making landfall around the time Andrew made landfall on Florida. Not often an East Pacific Hurricane makes landfall on the US as a tropical storm as they often weaken due to cooler water. Another interesting tidbit, the remnant of Lester and Andrew merged over Pennsylvania.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Lester_(1992)

[CrazyC83]

My guess is 18/9/5 in this basin.

[cycloneye]

If the GFS is right,we may have Aletta,Bud and Carlotta in a timeframe of two weeks.

[Kingarabian]

If the GFS is right,we may have Aletta,Bud and Carlotta in a timeframe of two weeks.

Wow! But the NHC seems bullish.

[CrazyC83]

If the GFS is right,we may have Aletta,Bud and Carlotta in a timeframe of two weeks.

Wow! But the NHC seems bullish.

If the EPAC goes nuts, that is a sign of a likely "quiet" Atlantic season. (Note "quiet", since it only takes one...)

[CrazyC83]

Lester in 1992 most certainly affected the US with 78 mph wind gusts in SE AZ. Lester, in fact, was the first named storm of 1992 to affect the US arriving in AZ 4 hours before Andrew hit FL. Other EPAC storms to affect the US were Raymond in 1989, Joanne in 1972, Katrina (yes Katrina used to be an EPAC name) in 1967, unnamed storm in 1939 and an unnamed hurricane in 1858. Olivia's remnants brought flooding rains to SE AZ in 2000 and another Olivia brought flooding rains to CA/NV/UT in 1982.

Steve

Interesting you mentioned Lester making landfall around the time Andrew made landfall on Florida. Not often an East Pacific Hurricane makes landfall on the US as a tropical storm as they often weaken due to cooler water. Another interesting tidbit, the remnant of Lester and Andrew merged over Pennsylvania.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Lester_(1992)

Didn't the remnants of Lowell in 2008 eventually get absorbed by Ike? Mind you, a third system played a role there too...

[Hurricane Jed]

If the GFS is right,we may have Aletta,Bud and Carlotta in a timeframe of two weeks.

Wow! But the NHC seems bullish.

If the EPAC goes nuts, that is a sign of a likely "quiet" Atlantic season. (Note "quiet", since it only takes one...)

Not necessarily. 2010 started off fast including a Category 5 and Category 3 in June and then there was pretty much nothing.