Thoughts on 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[tolakram]

You took a lot of heat and imo unwarranted, uncalled for bashing from some people. Like i said before being negative is no different than having posts after posts everyday about how this invest is going to be this hurricane and this cloud swirl is going to be this major blah blah. But anyway you certainly turned me negative this year ninel Seriously I just call them as I see them and I guess once july early august rolled around some could see and admit that nothing was going to happen no matter how many posters said the lid was about to come off and my favorite: just wait two more weeks. Anyway I'm done with the tropics and will be anxiously waiting on the winter thread to kick into high gear for whatever little cold we get down here

Why? Why did the lid not come off?

It's all fine and good to make some wild prediction of how things are going to happen, but it's not ok to claim some kind of skill when it can't be anything except a wild guess. I've watched too many seasons to think that bad looking conditions in August won't give way to something completely different in September.

It fooled every pro-met that I pay attention too, so how exactly did you "call it like you see it" in August? Sorry man, but we've had people call the season in August before and get burned. Any other year this would have been the case. I call shenanigans on the very idea the down casters in August were doing anything but making wild guesses and then trying to say it was anything but.

[ninel conde]

Atlantic ACE is currently 26.93/92. ACE average growth by climo is slowing and will be done pretty soon. Nobody would believe it if they were told this was going to be early in the season and would think one was nuts. This is the first exceptionally low year of it's kind since 1994 during the internet era that most of us are accustomed to tracking storms. We probably will not surpass 1994 in ACE and will likely stay in 3rd and maybe 4th place. A hyperactive season 145+ ACE was forecasted, and we got a bottom 5 season.

There were some posters who took a lot of heat earlier in the season that were probably considered negative nancies saying conditions just didn't look good, so kudos to credit where it is due. But even their predictions probably didn't foretell how slow it really got.

thanks. my original forecast was 17/5/1 updated to 9/2/0 in late july.

You took a lot of heat and imo unwarranted, uncalled for bashing from some people. Like i said before being negative is no different than having posts after posts everyday about how this invest is going to be this hurricane and this cloud swirl is going to be this major blah blah. But anyway you certainly turned me negative this year ninel Seriously I just call them as I see them and I guess once july early august rolled around some could see and admit that nothing was going to happen no matter how many posters said the lid was about to come off and my favorite: just wait two more weeks. Anyway I'm done with the tropics and will be anxiously waiting on the winter thread to kick into high gear for whatever little cold we get down here

thanks, and i think my reasoning was rather sound on 2 fronts. while just about everyone else, including NOAA and others, said having 2 CV storms form in july meant an active season, i said having 2 CV storms fall aprt over deep tropical water was a sign of a dead season. I also was adamant that the developing deep east coast trof in aug meant it was highly unlikely for any cane landfalls this year, or tropical storms since canes were few and far between.

other than a possible el nino next year i would look at texas in late may as the best predictor of the season. will we for yet another season have a texas ridge locked in for cane season with a resultant wnw flow and trof in the west atlantic? time will tell.

[tolakram]

thanks, and i think my reasoning was rather sound on 2 fronts. while just about everyone else, including NOAA and others, said having 2 CV storms form in july meant an active season, i said having 2 CV storms fall aprt over deep tropical water was a sign of a dead season. I also was adamant that the developing deep east coast trof in aug meant it was highly unlikely for any cane landfalls this year, or tropical storms since canes were few and far between.

I appreciate you providing reasoning, but why do CV storms falling apart in the deep tropics months before the typical start of CV season indicate anything? What other seasons have ended up with low ACE that had early forming CV storms that never strengthened (or fell apart). Conditions are usually so hostile that CV storms never form until months later. I'm just not getting the connection, but it's a good conversation to have if we can hindcast a reliable predictor of the season. I suspect, though, that most years with an early start to CV season usually end up with much more activity UNLESS it's an El Nino year.

Your second point is not activity but the chance for landfall. No real argument there, I think predicting land falling systems months in advance is meaningless with the knowledge we have right now.

[ninel conde]

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 6h

Still concerned, like Pacific burst, the atlantic ( caribbean) may have one more storm left in it that could raise eyebrows before its over

[WeatherGuesser]

Dishes have been bussed, tables wiped off. Salt and Pepper shakers and catsup bottles stored away. Haven't seen any chairs stacked on the tables yet though.

[hurricanes1234]

Dishes have been bussed, tables wiped off. Salt and Pepper shakers and catsup bottles stored away. Haven't seen any chairs stacked on the tables yet though.

???

[Hammy]

Dishes have been bussed, tables wiped off. Salt and Pepper shakers and catsup bottles stored away. Haven't seen any chairs stacked on the tables yet though.

Perhaps the season will offer one last call for late customers

[psyclone]

One thing this season has confirmed for me is the absolute uselessness of seasonal forecasts. Not worth the powder to blow 'em up. Seasonal forecasters, like economists, will continue to issue these forecasts, not because they have slightest inkling of what will happen, but because they are asked. I've been burned too many times by them. it's obvious the science is in its infancy. that doesn't mean the effort shouldn't continue but the idea that it will bear useful fruit in my lifetime has an increasingly fairy tale feel to it. Now I'm waiting for a season with a really downbeat forecast to hand us a 160 ACE on a silver platter.

[Cyclenall]

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 6h

Still concerned, like Pacific burst, the atlantic ( caribbean) may have one more storm left in it that could raise eyebrows before its over

He is still on that and its October 28, the idea that something huge is coming and we just have to wait a little longer is quite frankly tired. Just retire this idea, and accept this season is the juice you find at the bottom of a dumpster.

Dishes have been bussed, tables wiped off. Salt and Pepper shakers and catsup bottles stored away. Haven't seen any chairs stacked on the tables yet though.

Ok.

Now I'm waiting for a season with a really downbeat forecast to hand us a 160 ACE on a silver platter.

That will be the next El Nino for sure. It would have to be the strongest on record for that not to be the case.

[hurricanes1234]

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 6h

Still concerned, like Pacific burst, the atlantic ( caribbean) may have one more storm left in it that could raise eyebrows before its over.

I doubt it. The EPAC, in my opinion, is totally different to the Atlantic. Whereas the EPAC can still give a late season surprise like Raymond or Kenneth, you almost never see anything significant in November in the Atlantic, especially in a lackluster season like 2013. I am highly dubious to anything stronger than a weak TD or TS to come before the season's over, if anything at all, and I can almost put my head on a block that we will remain at 2 hurricanes. I am not saying a Tomas 2010 is impossible, but I'll put the chances at <3%. To me, this season has already closed 90% of its doors.


NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST OR INFORMATION.

[Hurricanehink]

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 6h

Still concerned, like Pacific burst, the atlantic ( caribbean) may have one more storm left in it that could raise eyebrows before its over.

I doubt it. The EPAC, in my opinion, is totally different to the Atlantic. Whereas the EPAC can still give a late season surprise like Raymond or Kenneth, you almost never see anything significant in November in the Atlantic, especially in a lackluster season like 2013. I am highly dubious to anything stronger than a weak TD or TS to come before the season's over, if anything at all, and I can almost put my head on a block that we will remain at 2 hurricanes. I am not saying a Tomas 2010 is impossible, but I'll put the chances at <3%. To me, this season has already closed 90% of its doors.


NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST OR INFORMATION.

Disagreed a bit. EPAC is much more likely to have nothing in November. Atlantic is more likely to have surprises. 1994 Atlantic hurricane season is a great example. After a very lackluster season (5 named storms through the end of October, including just one hurricane), there was a strong Category 2 hurricane (Florence) and one of the deadliest hurricanes in the past 20 years (Hurricane Gordon, which struck Haiti, Cuba, and Florida). 1984 was also pretty "meh", with a bunch of short-lived/weak storms (Diana being the exception), followed by a hurricane in mid-November hitting the Caribbean (Klaus) and then a hurricane in December (Lili)! The strongest hurricane in 1934 was a major hurricane near Bermuda. Also, after a pretty quiet season, 1912 had a major hurricane in November, killing over 200 people in the Caribbean. Some other November hurricanes include a Category 5 hurricane in 1932 that killed over 3,000 people, and a Category 2 hurricane in 1909 that dropped over 100 inches of rainfall on Jamaica. Is the season over? Probably, but I keep following storms through November 30th.

[Ntxw]

Disagreed a bit. EPAC is much more likely to have nothing in November. Atlantic is more likely to have surprises. 1994 Atlantic hurricane season is a great example. After a very lackluster season (5 named storms through the end of October, including just one hurricane), there was a strong Category 2 hurricane (Florence) and one of the deadliest hurricanes in the past 20 years (Hurricane Gordon, which struck Haiti, Cuba, and Florida). 1984 was also pretty "meh", with a bunch of short-lived/weak storms (Diana being the exception), followed by a hurricane in mid-November hitting the Caribbean (Klaus) and then a hurricane in December (Lili)! The strongest hurricane in 1934 was a major hurricane near Bermuda. Also, after a pretty quiet season, 1912 had a major hurricane in November, killing over 200 people in the Caribbean. Some other November hurricanes include a Category 5 hurricane in 1932 that killed over 3,000 people, and a Category 2 hurricane in 1909 that dropped over 100 inches of rainfall on Jamaica. Is the season over? Probably, but I keep following storms through November 30th.

Those are some impressive storms. But events like that is rare. November hurricanes are rare. It's rare for a reason, doesn't happen often. He's stating the chances and betting against it, which is not the worse of things to do. We've seen a lot of stats like Florida gets hit often in Oct, two cape verde systems early means active open Atlantic etc. None have come to fruition, you just got to take the better odds which is against it this year. Doesn't mean we can't stay vigilant. But in 2013 if you say it won't happen, you will probably be right more times than not as we've seen.

As for the MJO, it was stronger for the west hem in Sept and we got below average ACE out of it. What makes this MJO pulse (significantly weaker and deteriorating atmospheric conditions) any better? I'll believe it when I see it this late this season.

[ninel conde]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=180hr

picture perfect tropical pattern. if that had been the aug/sept pattern, BOOM.

[terstorm1012]

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 6h

Still concerned, like Pacific burst, the atlantic ( caribbean) may have one more storm left in it that could raise eyebrows before its over.

I doubt it. The EPAC, in my opinion, is totally different to the Atlantic. Whereas the EPAC can still give a late season surprise like Raymond or Kenneth, you almost never see anything significant in November in the Atlantic, especially in a lackluster season like 2013. I am highly dubious to anything stronger than a weak TD or TS to come before the season's over, if anything at all, and I can almost put my head on a block that we will remain at 2 hurricanes. I am not saying a Tomas 2010 is impossible, but I'll put the chances at <3%. To me, this season has already closed 90% of its doors.


NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST OR INFORMATION.

Disagreed a bit. EPAC is much more likely to have nothing in November. Atlantic is more likely to have surprises. 1994 Atlantic hurricane season is a great example. After a very lackluster season (5 named storms through the end of October, including just one hurricane), there was a strong Category 2 hurricane (Florence) and one of the deadliest hurricanes in the past 20 years (Hurricane Gordon, which struck Haiti, Cuba, and Florida). 1984 was also pretty "meh", with a bunch of short-lived/weak storms (Diana being the exception), followed by a hurricane in mid-November hitting the Caribbean (Klaus) and then a hurricane in December (Lili)! The strongest hurricane in 1934 was a major hurricane near Bermuda. Also, after a pretty quiet season, 1912 had a major hurricane in November, killing over 200 people in the Caribbean. Some other November hurricanes include a Category 5 hurricane in 1932 that killed over 3,000 people, and a Category 2 hurricane in 1909 that dropped over 100 inches of rainfall on Jamaica. Is the season over? Probably, but I keep following storms through November 30th.

don't forget Kate in 1985.

[Ptarmigan]

Disagreed a bit. EPAC is much more likely to have nothing in November. Atlantic is more likely to have surprises. 1994 Atlantic hurricane season is a great example. After a very lackluster season (5 named storms through the end of October, including just one hurricane), there was a strong Category 2 hurricane (Florence) and one of the deadliest hurricanes in the past 20 years (Hurricane Gordon, which struck Haiti, Cuba, and Florida). 1984 was also pretty "meh", with a bunch of short-lived/weak storms (Diana being the exception), followed by a hurricane in mid-November hitting the Caribbean (Klaus) and then a hurricane in December (Lili)! The strongest hurricane in 1934 was a major hurricane near Bermuda. Also, after a pretty quiet season, 1912 had a major hurricane in November, killing over 200 people in the Caribbean. Some other November hurricanes include a Category 5 hurricane in 1932 that killed over 3,000 people, and a Category 2 hurricane in 1909 that dropped over 100 inches of rainfall on Jamaica. Is the season over? Probably, but I keep following storms through November 30th.

That is why I never say hurricane season is over until it is over. The later part of the season can be dangerous and deadly. Some of the deadliest hurricanes occurred after September like Great Hurricane of 1780 and Mitch.

[Hurricaneman]

The 2013 hurricane season was a good thing IMO but if you track them like we all do it was a craptacular season while the numbers may look good on paper I measure a season by the ACE per storm for a season and here is a complete list since 1950

ACE per storm

1961:18.63
1955:16.58
1967:15.25
1950:15.19
2004:15.10
1999:14.75
1964:14.17
1965:14.00
1951:13.70
1980:13.55
1966:13.18
1963:13.11
1998:13.00
1996:12.77
1960:12.57
1952:12.43
1989:12.27
1958:12.10
1995:12.00
2003:10.93
1992:10.86
1957:10.50
1979:10.33
1954:10.27
2008: 9.12
2005: 8.86
1969: 8.78
2010: 8.74
1988: 8.58
1975: 8.44
1976: 8.40
1981: 8.33
1985: 8.00
2000: 7.93
2006: 7.90
1971: 7.46
1953: 7.43
2001: 7.33
1962: 7.20
2012: 7.00
1959: 7.00
1990: 6.93
1956: 6.75
2011: 6.58
1984: 6.46
1986: 6.00
2009: 5.89
2002: 5.58
1974: 5.55
1973: 5.38
1982: 5.33
1997: 5.25
1978: 5.25
2007: 4.93
1993: 4.88
1987: 4.86
1994: 4.57
1991: 4.50
1968: 4.38
1983: 4.25
1977: 4.17
1972: 4.00
1970: 3.40
2013: 2.50

as can be seen it is far and away using this method the weakest hurricane season on the list by almost a full unit of ACE. I would suspect that the 2014 has to be more active than this, I would almost say it will happen

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[sponger]

The fact that it occured in a non el nino year and during the active cycle is amazing.. I dont know which of those years in the 70's were El Nino years but something highly unusual is going on.

[Ntxw]

The fact that it occured in a non el nino year and during the active cycle is amazing.. I dont know which of those years in the 70's were El Nino years but something highly unusual is going on.

Virtually all of the lowest ACE years were either Ninos or -AMO (or both). So 2013 is an anomalous rarity and as hurricaneman posted lowest per storm by a big gap. It's very anomalous as these type of sub 30 ACE years don't come by often. I doubt we will see another this low for awhile if not a decade or more. It may seem boring going through it but in the future it will be referenced as a benchmark of ridiculously low ACE like how 94 and such years are mentioned. I know some have been harping at numbers but to truly understand the record to near record low activity you have to look at the big picture other than just a list of names to grasp the statistical low. That in itself is worth studying to figure out why.

[sponger]

It is safe to say that this seasons Hurricane Hunters on the weather channel will be quite lame!

[hurricanes1234]

The fact that it occured in a non el nino year and during the active cycle is amazing.. I dont know which of those years in the 70's were El Nino years but something highly unusual is going on.

Virtually all of the lowest ACE years were either Ninos or -AMO (or both). So 2013 is an anomalous rarity and as hurricaneman posted lowest per storm by a big gap. It's very anomalous as these type of sub 30 ACE years don't come by often. I doubt we will see another this low for awhile if not a decade or more. It may seem boring going through it but in the future it will be referenced as a benchmark of ridiculously low ACE like how 94 and such years are mentioned. I know some have been harping at numbers but to truly understand the record to near record low activity you have to look at the big picture other than just a list of names to grasp the statistical low. That in itself is worth studying to figure out why.

Numbers are impressive, but as you've stated, quality must be present also. For example, you can have a season with 20 named storms, but if none exceeded 40 mph, you can expect the ACE to be lower than if you have a season with only 5 named storms, but all of them became major hurricanes and lasted very long. That is why the 2011 Pacific Hurricane Season had an ACE of 118, even though it only saw 11 named storms. There were six major hurricanes, five of which were long-lived Category 4s. On the other hand, the 2013 Pacific Hurricane Season has thus far had close to 20 named storms, yet the ACE is below 80. So quality and quantity must go hand in hand.