Thoughts on 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season

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Ntxw
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Re: Thoughts on 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season

#1081 Postby Ntxw » Sun Oct 13, 2013 12:30 am

Steve wrote:Agree with MGC. Too bad a lot of people didn't get the excitement they wanted but guys like us and Frank P can tell you that once you lose everything you own, you develop a whole new perspective. I also don't agree with the term dud for 13 as it has produced the recent long term average of named storms and will no doubt get above 11. I do agree that it is a dud in terms of ace and intensity, which suits me perfectly fine. Now back to Zilker Park and ACL Fest. Muse was outstanding last night.

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It is a dud season. All of the pros and experts have admitted not only vast over forecasting, but even by normal standards its puny. Count means little when they are all short lived and struggling, combined all 11 systems barely compares to 1 good tracking cape verde major we usually see at least once a season. It is the third least active season ever since 1950...doesnt get much less active than that.

Mjo will be weak when it reaches the west. I think we may get a named system or two from it but probably not much more. Hurricane season lasts till Nov 30th but nothing says it will get active (with meaning), and likely nothing outside the Carib will survive very long from this point forward.
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#1082 Postby WeatherGuesser » Sun Oct 13, 2013 11:11 am

I say it's been an excellent season. A real winner and one we should hope for every year.



With the unfortunate exception of parts of Mexico, which I'm sure don't consider it a either a 'dud' or a winner by any means.
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#1083 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Sun Oct 13, 2013 5:24 pm

I made this:

Image
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Re:

#1084 Postby RL3AO » Sun Oct 13, 2013 6:42 pm

TropicalAnalystwx13 wrote:I made this:

[img ]http://img96.imageshack.us/img96/5055/c524.png[/img]


This is much more telling then # of storms.

Image

Source: http://policlimate.com/tropical/
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Re: Thoughts on 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season

#1085 Postby Sanibel » Wed Oct 16, 2013 8:21 am

Is that it?
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Re: Thoughts on 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season

#1086 Postby Nederlander » Wed Oct 16, 2013 5:39 pm

Steve wrote:Agree with MGC. Too bad a lot of people didn't get the excitement they wanted but guys like us and Frank P can tell you that once you lose everything you own, you develop a whole new perspective. I also don't agree with the term dud for 13 as it has produced the recent long term average of named storms and will no doubt get above 11. I do agree that it is a dud in terms of ace and intensity, which suits me perfectly fine. Now back to Zilker Park and ACL Fest. Muse was outstanding last night.

This post is NOT official.


I have been through Rita, Humberto, and Ike and none of it was fun. However, I agree that this season was a dud. Why do we get on here? Because (for the most part) we like to track storms. We are in awe of the beauty and power that these storms have. I say we because I feel like there's a pretty strong majority that share these sentiments. I have lost quite a bit because of hurricanes, but they still fascinate me and I still want to track them and when you have a season like this one, its very disappointing..
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Re: Thoughts on 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season

#1087 Postby dexterlabio » Wed Oct 16, 2013 10:58 pm

RL3AO wrote:
This is much more telling then # of storms.

http://i44.photobucket.com/albums/f38/R ... o_date.png

Source: http://policlimate.com/tropical/


Even 2006 and 2009 (Nino years) surpassed this anomalous season. If we had an anomaly in 2005, we also have one this year but totally opposite......
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#1088 Postby ConvergenceZone » Wed Oct 16, 2013 11:50 pm

I have a grim feeling that Mother Nature is going to compensate next year for this year's lack of activity , and it's going to be Brutally Busy.................
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Re: Thoughts on 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season

#1089 Postby Steve » Thu Oct 17, 2013 12:27 am

I understand Ned. I've been through my fair share of systems as well, probably+/-15 or so legitimate events over the years. Katrina was the one that mattered. I mean I went through Andrew but I was in Nola, not Homestead, so there was a big difference.

But ultimately, as someone who can say they lost everything, I'm not one who is going to be so much disappointed because I didn't get a tropical rush in a given year. I think a lot of weather enthusiasts kind of live for catastrophe, scares and the adrenaline. I also understand those aspects. Lived Lee in pensacol and isaac in nola the last two seasons. But there is a boatload more to life than just tropical season, and we read posts year after year where people openly pout and have tantrums about it. I always found that to be kind of weak and juvenile.

As to your and nwtx posts saying its been a dud season, I still only partially agree. I qualified why I thought it was and why it obviously isn't. And that is the fact that we have had, so far, 11 named Atlantic systems, most of which were in the western basin, makes it a normal season - which by luck or the grace of God or whatever, featured an above average threat level that mostly didnt materialize (Veracruz obvious exception). We will probably get to at least 12 or 13 named storms by the end of the season. That puts named systems above average = not a dud. At the same time, the almost incredibly low ace and #H stands out. That is dud or shoo-shoo but neither facet tells the whole story. That was what I was trying to convey. I think saying it is a dud or isn't a dud (unqualified) does not tell the whole story.
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#1090 Postby RainbowAppleJackDash » Thu Oct 17, 2013 5:29 pm

I think we could go for at lease 15ish systems. I don't think this season is ready to go just yet....
Conditions in the Caribbean, IMO, should improve as we progress into the end of October, what dyall guys think?

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#1091 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Thu Oct 17, 2013 6:10 pm

Still indications of a robust MJO pulse on the way towards the end of this month and beginning of November. The GFS sees the potential. Whether it materials or not is unknown at this point.
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Re:

#1092 Postby WeatherGuesser » Thu Oct 17, 2013 6:30 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:I have a grim feeling that Mother Nature is going to compensate next year for this year's lack of activity , and it's going to be Brutally Busy.................



I've been saying that for the last 4 or 5 years. There may have been higher numbers, but other than Sandy and Irene, there really hasn't been much affecting the US mainland. I just have a feeling that one of these years before too long, the US is going to really get slammed.
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Re: Re:

#1093 Postby ConvergenceZone » Thu Oct 17, 2013 7:06 pm

WeatherGuesser wrote:
ConvergenceZone wrote:I have a grim feeling that Mother Nature is going to compensate next year for this year's lack of activity , and it's going to be Brutally Busy.................



I've been saying that for the last 4 or 5 years. There may have been higher numbers, but other than Sandy and Irene, there really hasn't been much affecting the US mainland. I just have a feeling that one of these years before too long, the US is going to really get slammed.



That's the thing, we have been extremely lucky lately, and just the law of averages alone show that it's probably not much longer before the tide turns......
Whatever I do, I'm done listening to hurricane predictions by the NHC other than for entertainment value...But to take it seriously?...Never again.
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#1094 Postby Ntxw » Thu Oct 17, 2013 9:23 pm

It's true the MJO is heading into the western hemisphere. However I have to disagree about it being robust. It is incoherent and very weak. No model really strengthens it much. But I do agree something will likely get interest in the Caribbean, but it has to stay in the Carib. If it leaves that region it will die.

And a comment about law of averages. The atmosphere doesn't have a memory. It doesn't do something because it hasn't done so or vice versa, the earth is constantly looking for a balance that is never really achieved. It's action and reaction, each year is different. One quiet year doesn't mean active the next or cumulative quiet years will burst one open, otherwise we would not go 8 years without a major hitting the US. Next year could easily follow the trend of quiet global ACE or it may not, whatever parameters is laid down, it will react to such.
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#1095 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Oct 17, 2013 9:34 pm

The year the US gets slammed could be a relatively modest number storm season too...something like a 1985...
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#1096 Postby CalmBeforeStorm » Fri Oct 18, 2013 10:41 am

Thoughts on 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season? I think it's probably over and was a non-event for the U.S.
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Re: Thoughts on 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season

#1097 Postby blp » Fri Oct 18, 2013 10:49 am

If the MJO push fails then I would agree we are done. It has been quite a learning experience and I always thought shear was the worst inhibitor of development, but not even a shear prone El Nino year compares to what has happened this year. The stable mid level air has been a hammer and what is most impressive is that it blanketed the entire basin and affected other basins as well. Quite the phenomenon we have seen this year. I wonder if we can pinopoint this happening in years past. It would be an interesting study.
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Re: Thoughts on 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season

#1098 Postby Ptarmigan » Fri Oct 18, 2013 12:31 pm

blp wrote:If the MJO push fails then I would agree we are done. It has been quite a learning experience and I always thought shear was the worst inhibitor of development, but not even a shear prone El Nino year compares to what has happened this year. The stable mid level air has been a hammer and what is most impressive is that it blanketed the entire basin and affected other basins as well. Quite the phenomenon we have seen this year. I wonder if we can pinopoint this happening in years past. It would be an interesting study.


I would not be surprised this has happened before. It would be interesting to pinpoint it. Sometimes wind shear can strengthen hurricanes like Wilma before it hit Florida in 2005.

If we have no major hurricane this season, it would be a first since 1994.
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Re: Thoughts on 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season

#1099 Postby tolakram » Fri Oct 18, 2013 12:43 pm

I think we might be done.

If 2005 can happen then 2013 can happen. I still maintain that 2005 was more of a fluke than anything else. Disturbances in the right place at the right time and unusually low shear that year. 2013 represents just about the exact opposite. All the disturbances were in the wrong place at the wrong time. I do think we are going through an as of yet unidentified multi-year cycle that is suppression storm formation world wide. I would be willing to bet that 10 years from now this will have a name and be yet another parameter that helps in predicting seasonal activity.

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Re: Thoughts on 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season

#1100 Postby wxman57 » Fri Oct 18, 2013 12:59 pm

11/2/0 looks like it for 2013.
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