Thoughts on 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[TheStormExpert]

Here is a tweet from someone inside that building in South Florida.

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 1min
Models starting to build an upper-level ridge across the Atlc w/less shear. My guess is the 3rd week of Aug won't be as quiet as the 1st!

Eric Blake Hurricane Specialist, National Hurricane Center.

Excellent post by Mr. Blake. I totally agree with him. Who cares that the models aren't showing any specific TCs at this point? Let me just re-iterate what was said on Friday in the new outlook: this is going to be a very dangerous hurricane season (especially Caribbean and GOM) because has anyone noticed where all the heat is built up in the entire basin? Western Caribbean and GOM.



And with that ridge building in the eastern Atlantic, you are not going to have recurving TCs. If you look at the overall pattern, it SCREAMS for landfalls in the Caribbean and GOM as we head into the latter part of August. Folks in those areas need to prepare and they need to prepare now. DON'T wait until it is too late because the store shelves will be empty in one hour!

What are your thoughts on possible threats towards S. FL this season?

[Sanibel]

ITCZ is better looking in just 24 hours.

[jinftl]

Great thread - just trying to better understand, what conditions were clear when Alex formed in 2004 that conditions were a go for the season? By 'a go' is that the storms that did form would have a tendency to head across the ocean towards florida or that the season would be active due to instability measure, sst, etc? I guess I am wondering why it took 2 months to get the A storm if that was the case or was late July/early August a turning point where conditions that across the basin didn't spawn even a td changed that made Alex groundbreaking?

From NHC report on Alex, he had a rough start with shear to fight and SAL

As the depression approached a break in the subtropical
ridge early on 1 August its forward motion
slowed, and the cyclone remained nearly stationary for
the next day or so about 115 n mi east-southeast of
Savannah, Georgia. The depression remained poorly
organized initially, due to northeasterly shear and an
environment characterized by subsidence and dry air.
However, an upper-level trough was approaching from
the west, and in advance of this trough the northeasterly
flow over the cyclone began to relax. The depression
strengthened during this transition in the upper
flow pattern, and it became a tropical storm at 1800
UTC 1 August.

Even with the instability, the 2004 season started late - first named storm on July 31 and the 6-week period from when Charlie formed on Aug. 9 until Jeanne was declared no more on Sept. 28 was when all the real action took place. 6 month season from June 1 to November 30 but even 2004 was really 'on' for only 6 weeks. A few storms came after Jeanne but nothing significant.




bad pattern but one thing is very very different. this is the atlantic instability in 2004:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/project ... ns2004.gif

you could see even in june and july it was likely to be an active season based solely on this. as of today the atlantic tropical instability is exceptionally below normal. that hasnt budged in 3 years. now, some good news. joe bastardi expects a "short but furious" hurricane season as the cap comes off in mid/late aug but with less activity in oct. he also says 2004 was dry in the tropics until the cap broke. this tells me at any time now we will see a real hurricane modeled for after aug 15. will the instability rise to 2004 levels?

good points, but can we have an active period like 2004 if the instability stays where it is? and remember that in 2004 when alex did form it was clear conditions were a go for the season. it was a strong well developed hurricane with a CDO.[/quote]

[Hurricane_Luis]

That area around 35W 5N looks quite good, any models show anything?

[HurricaneDREW92]

That area around 35W 5N looks quite good, any models show anything?

Yup theres a thread about this wave.

[hurricaneCW]

The season will probably ignite after August 15.

[ninel conde]

Great thread - just trying to better understand, what conditions were clear when Alex formed in 2004 that conditions were a go for the season? By 'a go' is that the storms that did form would have a tendency to head across the ocean towards florida or that the season would be active due to instability measure, sst, etc? I guess I am wondering why it took 2 months to get the A storm if that was the case or was late July/early August a turning point where conditions that across the basin didn't spawn even a td changed that made Alex groundbreaking?

From NHC report on Alex, he had a rough start with shear to fight and SAL

As the depression approached a break in the subtropical
ridge early on 1 August its forward motion
slowed, and the cyclone remained nearly stationary for
the next day or so about 115 n mi east-southeast of
Savannah, Georgia. The depression remained poorly
organized initially, due to northeasterly shear and an
environment characterized by subsidence and dry air.
However, an upper-level trough was approaching from
the west, and in advance of this trough the northeasterly
flow over the cyclone began to relax. The depression
strengthened during this transition in the upper
flow pattern, and it became a tropical storm at 1800
UTC 1 August.

Even with the instability, the 2004 season started late - first named storm on July 31 and the 6-week period from when Charlie formed on Aug. 9 until Jeanne was declared no more on Sept. 28 was when all the real action took place. 6 month season from June 1 to November 30 but even 2004 was really 'on' for only 6 weeks. A few storms came after Jeanne but nothing significant.




bad pattern but one thing is very very different. this is the atlantic instability in 2004:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/project ... ns2004.gif

you could see even in june and july it was likely to be an active season based solely on this. as of today the atlantic tropical instability is exceptionally below normal. that hasnt budged in 3 years. now, some good news. joe bastardi expects a "short but furious" hurricane season as the cap comes off in mid/late aug but with less activity in oct. he also says 2004 was dry in the tropics until the cap broke. this tells me at any time now we will see a real hurricane modeled for after aug 15. will the instability rise to 2004 levels?

good points, but can we have an active period like 2004 if the instability stays where it is? and remember that in 2004 when alex did form it was clear conditions were a go for the season. it was a strong well developed hurricane with a CDO.

[/quote]


impossible to say why it took 2 months. i can answer why i feel alex showed the season was a "go". it was the first storm of the season and it developed into a powerful hurricane. it had a CDO. more importantly, tropical instabilty was good before alex formed. lets look at this season. 4 stroms, no hurricanes and of course none of them had a CDO. the last 2 fell apart shortly after getting named over open tropical waters. lets say the 1st 3 storms had never even formed and dorian was the first. if dorian had become a well developed hurricane with a CDO and had died over the cold north atlantic or over land and instability was above normal i would be saying this season was going to be active. having said all that, the season may yet be active. just my thoughts.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Look how low sea level pressures become across nearly the entire Atlantic by mid-August according to the GFS ensembles. The tropics on button will be pressed shortly.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

good points, but can we have an active period like 2004 if the instability stays where it is? and remember that in 2004 when alex did form it was clear conditions were a go for the season. it was a strong well developed hurricane with a CDO.

Vertical instability doesn't exactly limit the number of tropical cyclones, it just limits their maximum potential intensity. 2011 and 2012 saw many tropical cyclones in the central and eastern Atlantic despite the lack of instability.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

impossible to say why it took 2 months. i can answer why i feel alex showed the season was a "go". it was the first storm of the season and it developed into a powerful hurricane. it had a CDO. more importantly, tropical instabilty was good before alex formed. lets look at this season. 4 stroms, no hurricanes and of course none of them had a CDO. the last 2 fell apart shortly after getting named over open tropical waters. lets say the 1st 3 storms had never even formed and dorian was the first. if dorian had become a well developed hurricane with a CDO and had died over the cold north atlantic or over land and instability was above normal i would be saying this season was going to be active. having said all that, the season may yet be active. just my thoughts.

The first system of the busiest season ever recorded was a broad tropical storm that had its circulation exposed for nearly all of its life. The fact that Chantal and Dorian even existed during July is uncommon, no matter how much they struggled.

Andrew very nearly died before finding a favorable environment and blowing up into a Category 5.

The tropical depression that helped spawn the costliest hurricane in U.S. history died over the central Atlantic.

How X begins has no bearing on how Y turns out.

[Ntxw]

How X begins has no bearing on how Y turns out.

This quote should be framed and set as a motto every hurricane season . Earlier in the season some people kept emphasizing we were mirroring 2005 on count because we had a certain quantity of storms that were named similar to that year. It turned out differently. And now 2004 is being thrown around often because it was a late start. I think we need to sit back and avoid using comparisons based on when storms formed or how many of them to another year. The same can be said of comparing earlier in the season to late in the season. We need to take this on what we see now, the atmosphere plays a huge role in what happens and it changes constantly. The next week to 2 weeks do not look favorable and the models generally agree. We'll have to wait for atmospheric conditions to improve, once that does the oceans will support them once they get going, it's bath water...it always is.

[ninel conde]

impossible to say why it took 2 months. i can answer why i feel alex showed the season was a "go". it was the first storm of the season and it developed into a powerful hurricane. it had a CDO. more importantly, tropical instabilty was good before alex formed. lets look at this season. 4 stroms, no hurricanes and of course none of them had a CDO. the last 2 fell apart shortly after getting named over open tropical waters. lets say the 1st 3 storms had never even formed and dorian was the first. if dorian had become a well developed hurricane with a CDO and had died over the cold north atlantic or over land and instability was above normal i would be saying this season was going to be active. having said all that, the season may yet be active. just my thoughts.

The first system of the busiest season ever recorded was a broad tropical storm that had its circulation exposed for nearly all of its life. The fact that Chantal and Dorian even existed during July is uncommon, no matter how much they struggled.

Andrew very nearly died before finding a favorable environment and blowing up into a Category 5.

The tropical depression that helped spawn the costliest hurricane in U.S. history died over the central Atlantic.

How X begins has no bearing on how Y turns out.

you really cant compare 92 and 2004. it was assumed in 1992 it was going to be slow because of a raging el nino and shear swamping the atlantic. 1992 was also in the slow multi decadal period. andrew just managed to find a brief favorable window in a very unfavorable year. anyway, all we can do now is wait.

[cycloneye]

I think this thread is good to post the latest video by Levi Cowan about the peak of the season.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/201 ... l-to-come/

This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[gatorcane]

Good video, learned some things watching it. He is using 2004 as an analog and points out some areas to watch for in the medium term and long-term.

[SFLcane]

This season reminds so much of 04 in terms of upper winds and positioning of Bermuda High could get crazy in a few weeks.

[ninel conde]

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 1h

http://Weatherbell.com first talked about possible gulf development this week 7/31. Watch Se gulf Wed..move west after that.

not sure what he is seeing getting into the se gom.

['CaneFreak]

My thoughts are that south Florida is more under the gun this year than in recent years past. I firmly believe that S FL will get hit with a very devastating hurricane this year. Did you read the CSU forecast that was posted on Friday? The chances of S FL getting hit with a major hurricane are 28 percent or 7 percent above the climatological norm. That's pretty high. Not only that but if you look at the overall pattern that keeps repeating itself, it screams landfalling TCs - especially in the eastern GOM (which includes S FL). Folks in south FL need to prepare extra hard this year.

What are your thoughts on possible threats towards S. FL this season?

[WeatherEmperor]

My thoughts are that south Florida is more under the gun this year than in recent years past. I firmly believe that S FL will get hit with a very devastating hurricane this year. Did you read the CSU forecast that was posted on Friday? The chances of S FL getting hit with a major hurricane are 28 percent or 7 percent above the climatological norm. That's pretty high. Not only that but if you look at the overall pattern that keeps repeating itself, it screams landfalling TCs - especially in the eastern GOM (which includes S FL). Folks in south FL need to prepare extra hard this year.

What are your thoughts on possible threats towards S. FL this season?

I dont want to sound stupid but how come the chances of sfla getting hit are so high? I know the atlantic ridge is stronger this year but i see nothing but trof after trof coming off the east coast so far. Levi cowan on his tropical tidbits this afternoon showed a map of colder than normal temps forecasted during the month of august...which would imply cold fronts. To me it seems that storms should come closer to the US due to the stronger atlantic high but once they come close enough to the east coast they could turn in to the Carolinas due to all these fronts sweeping through the area. Would that be accurate or is there something I am missing?

Sent from my HTC EVO 4G LTE

[Hurricane Alexis]

I know that south florida will get hit by a devastating hurricane someday I just hope that day never comes.


Sent from my ZTE-X500 using Tapatalk 2

['CaneFreak]

I think the thing you are forgetting is how quick the pressures rebuild over the NW Atlantic once these quick hitting, short wave troughs move through. The key is that these aren't huge sweeping troughs that are the length of the entire coastline. They are quick movers with a very short wavelength. Key difference there. This kind of pattern screams a threat to SE FL from the EAST.

I dont want to sound stupid but how come the chances of sfla getting hit are so high? I know the atlantic ridge is stronger this year but i see nothing but trof after trof coming off the east coast so far. Levi cowan on his tropical tidbits this afternoon showed a map of colder than normal temps forecasted during the month of august...which would imply cold fronts. To me it seems that storms should come closer to the US due to the stronger atlantic high but once they come close enough to the east coast they could turn in to the Carolinas due to all these fronts sweeping through the area. Would that be accurate or is there something I am missing?

Sent from my HTC EVO 4G LTE