Thoughts on 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[South Texas Storms]

11/2/0 looks like it for 2013.

Did anyone in your contest predict the total right? If not, did anyone come close?

[wxman57]

11/2/0 looks like it for 2013.

Did anyone in your contest predict the total right? If not, did anyone come close?

The lowest number predicted was 9/5/2. Highest was 26/11/5. Those two entries tried to steal a win by going far lower or far higher than anyone else. As it stands now, the guy with 9/5/2 is in the lead. He won a few years ago by going lower than everyone else just to be at the low extreme of entries.

[blp]

11/2/0 looks like it for 2013.

So I guess you don't think this MJO pulse will produce anything?

[tolakram]

What MJO pulse? My amateur opinion is that it's inside the circle and not much of anything. If it was a big pulse, similar to the last time around, I would be interested, but with hostile conditions and most models keeping it weak I'm just not sure it's going to amount to much.

[blp]

What MJO pulse? My amateur opinion is that it's inside the circle and not much of anything. If it was a big pulse, similar to the last time around, I would be interested, but with hostile conditions and most models keeping it weak I'm just not sure it's going to amount to much.

Thanks for the clarification, it does look like it will be weak. I found some research that suggests the most active phases for development are 1 & 2 and the ones that develop the most major as well. Phase 2 was suprising for to me. The worst was phase 7.

http://www.cmmap.org/research/docs/jul09/poster-heatherMorgan.pdf

[Ntxw]

The lowest number predicted was 9/5/2. Highest was 26/11/5. Those two entries tried to steal a win by going far lower or far higher than anyone else. As it stands now, the guy with 9/5/2 is in the lead. He won a few years ago by going lower than everyone else just to be at the low extreme of entries.

9/5/2 would've amounted to a decent season .

The season is likely over. A stray formation in the Carib is still possible but it won't last long. I think bones is clearing his throat out back.

[chaser1]

11/2/0 looks like it for 2013.

So I guess you don't think this MJO pulse will produce anything?

Awwww, C'mon guys?! No one here thinks we can squeak out one more 1005mb 45 knot storm? I'm gonna go WAY out there, and guess that some poor excuse of a storm will form in the North Central Carib. and briskly move north, than "out". Anyone up for a Halloween day chase out to the islands for a "dry heave" and a few gusts pushing 50mph??

[TheStormExpert]

Seasons over, enough said! See y'all in 2014. Hopefully that season can keep us occupied throughout it.

[Ntxw]

Atlantic ACE is currently 26.93/92. ACE average growth by climo is slowing and will be done pretty soon. Nobody would believe it if they were told this was going to be early in the season and would think one was nuts. This is the first exceptionally low year of it's kind since 1994 during the internet era that most of us are accustomed to tracking storms. We probably will not surpass 1994 in ACE and will likely stay in 3rd and maybe 4th place. A hyperactive season 145+ ACE was forecasted, and we got a bottom 5 season.

There were some posters who took a lot of heat earlier in the season that were probably considered negative nancies saying conditions just didn't look good, so kudos to credit where it is due. But even their predictions probably didn't foretell how slow it really got.

[ninel conde]

Atlantic ACE is currently 26.93/92. ACE average growth by climo is slowing and will be done pretty soon. Nobody would believe it if they were told this was going to be early in the season and would think one was nuts. This is the first exceptionally low year of it's kind since 1994 during the internet era that most of us are accustomed to tracking storms. We probably will not surpass 1994 in ACE and will likely stay in 3rd and maybe 4th place. A hyperactive season 145+ ACE was forecasted, and we got a bottom 5 season.

There were some posters who took a lot of heat earlier in the season that were probably considered negative nancies saying conditions just didn't look good, so kudos to credit where it is due. But even their predictions probably didn't foretell how slow it really got.

thanks. my original forecast was 17/5/1 updated to 9/2/0 in late july.

[wxman57]

Atlantic ACE is currently 26.93/92. ACE average growth by climo is slowing and will be done pretty soon. Nobody would believe it if they were told this was going to be early in the season and would think one was nuts. This is the first exceptionally low year of it's kind since 1994 during the internet era that most of us are accustomed to tracking storms. We probably will not surpass 1994 in ACE and will likely stay in 3rd and maybe 4th place. A hyperactive season 145+ ACE was forecasted, and we got a bottom 5 season.

There were some posters who took a lot of heat earlier in the season that were probably considered negative nancies saying conditions just didn't look good, so kudos to credit where it is due. But even their predictions probably didn't foretell how slow it really got.

thanks. my original forecast was 17/5/1 updated to 9/2/0 in late july.

I'd point out that all the seasonal predictors that are used to estimate hurricane activity (SSTs in MDR, pressure anomaly, lack of El Nino (cool neutral)) verified perfectly. I'd like to know what those who said back in May that it would be an inactive season were using to make that prediction.

[Ntxw]

Certainly wxman, yes those parameters did verify. Some posters did mention vertical instability lacking in June and July as well as the trend of weaksauce-short lived systems of the past few years to continue. The second part was probably not scientific but it did happen.

[RainbowAppleJackDash]

We should JUST get to see Lorenzo at the end of this month.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Ntxw]

Usagi did it earlier in the season. Francisco does it too.

Francisco: 27.41 ACE
North Atlantic season: 26.93 ACE

[chaser1]

Atlantic ACE is currently 26.93/92. ACE average growth by climo is slowing and will be done pretty soon. Nobody would believe it if they were told this was going to be early in the season and would think one was nuts. This is the first exceptionally low year of it's kind since 1994 during the internet era that most of us are accustomed to tracking storms. We probably will not surpass 1994 in ACE and will likely stay in 3rd and maybe 4th place. A hyperactive season 145+ ACE was forecasted, and we got a bottom 5 season.

There were some posters who took a lot of heat earlier in the season that were probably considered negative nancies saying conditions just didn't look good, so kudos to credit where it is due. But even their predictions probably didn't foretell how slow it really got.

thanks. my original forecast was 17/5/1 updated to 9/2/0 in late july.

I'd point out that all the seasonal predictors that are used to estimate hurricane activity (SSTs in MDR, pressure anomaly, lack of El Nino (cool neutral)) verified perfectly. I'd like to know what those who said back in May that it would be an inactive season were using to make that prediction.

Wxman, point well taken. I won't be so arrogant to claim that I foresaw how this season turned out. To your point however, I had made a number of pre-season posts regarding observation of not only perceived stronger than normal upper level winds but how I found them occuring in a band that I thought was unusually far south as well. The following was my post on Wed. May 8 (which then led to my decreasing my "quantitative" number of forecasted storms):

Does anyone else out there see what I am seeing?? Or have I just been watching too many pods of Mullet swimming in counter-clockwise circles lately, LOL??

I am just not sure why, but something about the particularly strong 200mb wind flow just seem "off". I think more than anything, I just don't seem to recollect any recent past Spring seasons as having these winds so consistently spanning what seems like the entire Gulf region, across the Greater Antilles and Caribbean, and practically continuing almost all the way to Africa. Even during prior El Nino years we would see quite strong Westerlies, but strong as this upper shear seemed to be, those winds would moderate in intensity as that flow started exiting the Caribbean. I believe in those years with "El Nino" originating Westerlies, those winds would eventually interact with either an East Coast trough/TUTT condition, or maybe an oscillating mid-Atlantic trough that seemed persistently anchored in the W. Central Atlantic. Either way, even under those hostile upper air circumstances there would seem to be some downstream difluent conditions where those Westerlies eventually were shunted more pole-ward and an outflow channel would be created (if an active tropical wave were in the area to take advantage).

I very well realize that this is early May, but it just seems odd to me that the present upper level winds seem almost trapped within the sub-tropics latitudes and at present have nowhere else to go but as "East as far as the eye can see". More than likely this deviant flow will just give way to the eventual Easterly surge of ridging that would typically build Westward over the summer. Anyway you look at it though, I just cant see anything near term other than hostile wind shear conditions. These persistent upper air conditions do not look to change anytime in the foreseeable future. So if that were the case, it just wouldn't seem to matter what "alphabet soup" might be projected to surge in "our side of the bowl". These hostile conditions would seem to disrupt tropical genesis from occurring. While a late May or early June depression or even weak storm could well occur, I would bet against it at least until it was evident that some low latitude ridging was occurring somewhere.

To be clear though, I like everyone else took into account how favorable all other conditions appeared to be and was confident that an active season would still evolve with particularly strong hurricanes as well.

[CrazyC83]

Could the Atlantic surprise us all in November? Perhaps when the MJO comes back, the Caribbean may pull a trick out of the hat. No one really called Raymond in the EPAC...

[RainbowAppleJackDash]

Could the Atlantic surprise us all in November? Perhaps when the MJO comes back, the Caribbean may pull a trick out of the hat. No one really called Raymond in the EPAC...

Melissa.

[Cyclenall]

The lowest number predicted was 9/5/2. Highest was 26/11/5. Those two entries tried to steal a win by going far lower or far higher than anyone else. As it stands now, the guy with 9/5/2 is in the lead. He won a few years ago by going lower than everyone else just to be at the low extreme of entries.

9/5/2 would've amounted to a decent season .

The season is likely over. A stray formation in the Carib is still possible but it won't last long. I think bones is clearing his throat out back.

9/5/2 would be amazing compared to this season. Or another 2006. I don't think anything meaningful will occur, there is no reason to think so. I just want it to stay dead like I predicted in mid-August. I think the Euro will be crowned again with a shiny headpiece with this because of that pressure forecast that some claim because the Euro forecast an El Nino. However, face value it was completely correct by itself. I remarked, "Both basins would be shut down" and it happened.

So I guess you don't think this MJO pulse will produce anything?

Everyone should give up on the MJO, it did little. With conditions only getting worse, what shining glory will occur? November major hurricanes are extremely rare in a normal season.

Seasons over, enough said! See y'all in 2014. Hopefully that season can keep us occupied throughout it.

I won't be here, I'm done after this. On a storm basis from now on, just too much time wasted for this weak sauce. If I'm not learning something or its not interesting, why bother.

thanks. my original forecast was 17/5/1 updated to 9/2/0 in late july.

Do you happen to have a crystal ball or weather machine in your possession by any chance? I noticed you just came out of nowhere around July; posted these crazy low and pessimistic numbers that everyone was attacking you for including me. Your reasons weren't that great though but it ended up pretty much dead on. Suspect indeed .

I'd point out that all the seasonal predictors that are used to estimate hurricane activity (SSTs in MDR, pressure anomaly, lack of El Nino (cool neutral)) verified perfectly. I'd like to know what those who said back in May that it would be an inactive season were using to make that prediction.

I can't wait for the seasonal reports to come out, going to be great.

Could the Atlantic surprise us all in November? Perhaps when the MJO comes back, the Caribbean may pull a trick out of the hat. No one really called Raymond in the EPAC...

When I read this I immediately knew and feared that a major hurricane has occurred and checked Unisys... Pulled another Humberto and screwed the WHem stat of no majors for the year, just absurdly dumb...fails at failing! I completely missed it too, hate those buggers! Now the 2013 Epac season is another 1981.

[tolakram]

The law of averages always wins, in the end. Of course it's not science, but unless the average activity was going to radically change then we should expect some very low ACE seasons to get us back to average. I think the only surprise is that forecasters thought they could predict when this would happen.



Even for a high activity era we have been above normal compared to the last go around. Add to this the fact we really don't have much data to work with and, frankly, anything can happen.

Here's a graph with a 10 year running average.



How much ACE has been missed in the past? What assumptions are being made about the trends for ACE?

As far as early season guessing ... give me a pattern or reasoning that is a reliable predictor of the season and I'll be a believer, otherwise it's just a guess. /golf clap

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Atlantic ACE is currently 26.93/92. ACE average growth by climo is slowing and will be done pretty soon. Nobody would believe it if they were told this was going to be early in the season and would think one was nuts. This is the first exceptionally low year of it's kind since 1994 during the internet era that most of us are accustomed to tracking storms. We probably will not surpass 1994 in ACE and will likely stay in 3rd and maybe 4th place. A hyperactive season 145+ ACE was forecasted, and we got a bottom 5 season.

There were some posters who took a lot of heat earlier in the season that were probably considered negative nancies saying conditions just didn't look good, so kudos to credit where it is due. But even their predictions probably didn't foretell how slow it really got.

thanks. my original forecast was 17/5/1 updated to 9/2/0 in late july.

You took a lot of heat and imo unwarranted, uncalled for bashing from some people. Like i said before being negative is no different than having posts after posts everyday about how this invest is going to be this hurricane and this cloud swirl is going to be this major blah blah. But anyway you certainly turned me negative this year ninel Seriously I just call them as I see them and I guess once july early august rolled around some could see and admit that nothing was going to happen no matter how many posters said the lid was about to come off and my favorite: just wait two more weeks. Anyway I'm done with the tropics and will be anxiously waiting on the winter thread to kick into high gear for whatever little cold we get down here