When will the multi-decade active era that began in 1995 end?

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Re: When will the multi-decade active era that began in 1995 end?

#461 Postby Shell Mound » Thu Apr 22, 2021 1:37 am

HurricaneEnzo wrote:
Shell Mound wrote:
Weather Dude wrote:You can't compare those sets of years though because that's an active era compared to an inactive one...

The point is that cooler global temperatures have tended to coincide with more intense Atlantic hurricane seasons and longer-lived +AMO cycles.


To me it just means a lot of Hurricanes were overestimated in the 'cool era' pictured. Recon was in its infancy, no satellite, no SFMR led to a lot of overestimated storms. They were estimating wind speed by looking at what the ocean looked like below them from the plane. It was the best they could do at the time but HIGHLY unreliable.

That is just my personal opinion though.

If anything, numerous studies and experimental reanalyses, including satellite-based, suggest we are greatly underestimating intensities even today, especially in basins outside the Atlantic. I recall that Dr. Maue made excellent tweets in regard to this issue, pointing out numerous Pacific and IO cyclones whose satellite estimates indicated far higher winds than officially present in the official databases. Satellite imagery also indicates that numerous Category-5 cyclones over the EPAC during the 1980s were misclassified as far weaker in HURDAT. Additionally, this study highlights the following findings:
The present study focuses on the 10 most recent Category 5 hurricanes recorded in the Atlantic, from Hurricane Andrew (1992) through Hurricane Felix (2007). These 10 hurricanes are placed into the context of the technology available in the period of 1944–53, the first decade of aircraft reconnaissance. A methodology is created to determine how many of these 10 recent Category 5 hurricanes likely would have been recorded as Category 5 if they had occurred during this period using only the observations that likely would have been available with existing technology and observational networks. Late-1940s and early1950s best-track intensities are determined for the entire lifetime of these 10 recent Category 5 hurricanes. It is found that likely only 2 of these 10—both Category 5 landfalling hurricanes—would have been recorded as Category 5 hurricanes if they had occurred during the late-1940s period.
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Re: When will the multi-decade active era that began in 1995 end?

#462 Postby Shell Mound » Sun Apr 25, 2021 1:42 pm

Shell Mound wrote:
HurricaneEnzo wrote:
Shell Mound wrote:The point is that cooler global temperatures have tended to coincide with more intense Atlantic hurricane seasons and longer-lived +AMO cycles.


To me it just means a lot of Hurricanes were overestimated in the 'cool era' pictured. Recon was in its infancy, no satellite, no SFMR led to a lot of overestimated storms. They were estimating wind speed by looking at what the ocean looked like below them from the plane. It was the best they could do at the time but HIGHLY unreliable.

That is just my personal opinion though.

If anything, numerous studies and experimental reanalyses, including satellite-based, suggest we are greatly underestimating intensities even today, especially in basins outside the Atlantic. I recall that Dr. Maue made excellent tweets in regard to this issue, pointing out numerous Pacific and IO cyclones whose satellite estimates indicated far higher winds than officially present in the official databases. Satellite imagery also indicates that numerous Category-5 cyclones over the EPAC during the 1980s were misclassified as far weaker in HURDAT. Additionally, this study highlights the following findings:
The present study focuses on the 10 most recent Category 5 hurricanes recorded in the Atlantic, from Hurricane Andrew (1992) through Hurricane Felix (2007). These 10 hurricanes are placed into the context of the technology available in the period of 1944–53, the first decade of aircraft reconnaissance. A methodology is created to determine how many of these 10 recent Category 5 hurricanes likely would have been recorded as Category 5 if they had occurred during this period using only the observations that likely would have been available with existing technology and observational networks. Late-1940s and early1950s best-track intensities are determined for the entire lifetime of these 10 recent Category 5 hurricanes. It is found that likely only 2 of these 10—both Category 5 landfalling hurricanes—would have been recorded as Category 5 hurricanes if they had occurred during the late-1940s period.

The hurricane analysis conducted by Burn and Palmer (2015) determined that hurricane activity was subdued during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) (~900-1350 CE) and became more produced during the Little Ice Age (LIA) (~1450-1850 CE), followed by a period of variability occurred between ~1850 and ~1900 before entering another subdued state during the industrial period (~1950-2000 CE).

Source, pp. 30–1

The EHA index (Fig. 4c) spans three distinct climatological intervals of the last millennium; the relatively warm mean climatic state of the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA; ~900–1350 CE), the relatively cool mean state of the Little Ice Age (LIA; ~1450–1850 CE) and the period of centennial warming, which distinguishes the Industrial Era since 1870. In general, average Caribbean-wide storm activity during the MCA was lower (EHA ~ 65.1 × 102 kt2) than that of the LIA (~73.3 × 102 kt2) and the 20th Century average (EHA ~ 74.7 × 102 kt2; ACE ~ 67.3 × 102 kt2). However, hurricane activity during the LIA is characterised by a greater amplitude of variation where increased frequency of short intervals of enhanced and suppressed activity correspond to periods of low natural radiative forcing. The highest average levels of activity (EHA ~ 86 × 102 kt2; 1580–1650 CE) occurred during the late 16th and early 17th Centuries, a trend corroborated by a coupled ocean-atmosphere climate model simulation of annual basin-wide tropical cyclone counts 35, which indicates heightened activity during the LIA (Fig. 4d). Further support for enhanced activity during the LIA comes from a record of hurricane deposits in a coastal karst basin in the Bahamas, which suggests heightened activity occurred between 1350 and 1650 25. This important result suggests that average hurricane activity during the industrial period has not exceeded its longer-term natural variability during the last millennium. While the general increase in activity revealed by the EHA index is not consistent with the longer-term decreasing trend of hurricane counts simulated by the statistical model reconstruction driven by estimates of landfalling hurricane strikes from overwash sediment records (Fig 4d), the strong interdecadal variability exhibited by the EHA index is well represented in both36. This similarity is particularly striking during the modern historical period (1800 – present), where the records are characterised by decadal change superimposed on the longer term centennial increase in activity. ...

Taken together, our analyses suggest that interdecadal hurricane activity was subdued during the warm mean climatic state of the MCA. It subsequently became more pronounced during the LIA and, after a brief transitional state characterised by enhanced variability between 1850 and 1900, then returned to a more subdued state during the late industrial period (1950–2010), an episode of distinct climatic warming probably triggered by a combination of anthropogenic activity and a positive phase of the AMO37. Remarkably, the interdecadal behaviour of hurricane activity does not appear to persist as strongly during the warmer mean climatic states of the last millennium and therefore exhibits non-stationarity with respect to its response to changing mean climate states. While the changing magnitude of interannual variability is not significant at the 95% level it is nevertheless also clearly subdued during the early and latter parts of the record and more active during the LIA (Fig. 4f). The similarity in the response of interannual and interdecadal changes suggests that both ENSO and AMO may share a common response to deviations in external radiative forcing and raises the possibility that the variability of storms may become more subdued during the anthropogenically-forced warmer mean climate of the 21st Century.

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Re: When will the multi-decade active era that began in 1995 end?

#463 Postby tolakram » Mon Apr 26, 2021 6:02 am

You'll never get good agreement on past classifications vs current. We see it now with recon IN a storm and discussions about what the wind speed really is. Mesovortices distorting actual wind speeds is just one example. That said, I see no need to question the validity of past storms wind speed estimates. In my opinion they are close enough.

Also, in my opinion, Twitter is a means to ADVERTISE ones self, and while interesting should never be mistaken for actual facts. That sounds a little rough, I know, but Dr Maue does like his extreme tweets.
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Re: When will the multi-decade active era that began in 1995 end?

#464 Postby Dean_175 » Fri Apr 30, 2021 12:04 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Shell Mound wrote:Wxman57, do you think that climate change may have had something to do with this latest +AMO ending earlier than previous ones?


I would say that we have too little data to even determine what is early or what is late. The climate has been changing for millions of years. We've been slowly coming out of the last ice age over the past 500 years.


What do you mean? We have been in the Holocene interglacial for about 12,000 years now?
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Re: When will the multi-decade active era that began in 1995 end?

#465 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Apr 30, 2021 12:20 pm

Dean_175 wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
Shell Mound wrote:Wxman57, do you think that climate change may have had something to do with this latest +AMO ending earlier than previous ones?


I would say that we have too little data to even determine what is early or what is late. The climate has been changing for millions of years. We've been slowly coming out of the last ice age over the past 500 years.


What do you mean? We have been in the Holocene interglacial for about 12,000 years now?


There has been a Mini extreme chill in the 1600s-1700s when the Sun had ZERO sunspots at all!
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Re: When will the multi-decade active era that began in 1995 end?

#466 Postby AlphaToOmega » Tue Jul 06, 2021 2:32 pm

I would still say we are solidly in a +AMO phase.
Image
Those are apparent +SST anomalies throughout the North Atlantic (with the exception of the cold blob).
For reference, this was what the Atlantic looked like during the last +AMO phase:
Image
During the last -AMO phase:
Image
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Re: When will the multi-decade active era that began in 1995 end?

#467 Postby Blinhart » Wed Jul 07, 2021 7:11 am

With satellite, climate change and everything else, I think we will have to change what is considered active. I think seeing 15+ storms a year will be the new normal, and the seasonal average will probably go up to 19 or 20 in the near future, so we will have to say overactive to be 24+
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Re: When will the multi-decade active era that began in 1995 end?

#468 Postby Stormybajan » Wed Jul 07, 2021 9:09 am

Blinhart wrote:With satellite, climate change and everything else, I think we will have to change what is considered active. I think seeing 15+ storms a year will be the new normal, and the seasonal average will probably go up to 19 or 20 in the near future, so we will have to say overactive to be 24+


Ehhh...im not about that tho...it just seems we are in a long + AMO phase...when the AMO switches to -- AMO im sure we will all be here BEGGING for a storm or 2...we simply wont know until it switches
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Re: When will the multi-decade active era that began in 1995 end?

#469 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Wed Jul 07, 2021 1:11 pm

Stormybajan wrote:
Blinhart wrote:With satellite, climate change and everything else, I think we will have to change what is considered active. I think seeing 15+ storms a year will be the new normal, and the seasonal average will probably go up to 19 or 20 in the near future, so we will have to say overactive to be 24+


Ehhh...im not about that tho...it just seems we are in a long + AMO phase...when the AMO switches to -- AMO im sure we will all be here BEGGING for a storm or 2...we simply wont know until it switches

Also if it switches it may switch back in a year or maybe a century. It’s inconsistent.
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Re: When will the multi-decade active era that began in 1995 end?

#470 Postby Shell Mound » Thu Jul 08, 2021 1:02 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Shell Mound wrote:Wxman57, do you think that climate change may have had something to do with this latest +AMO ending earlier than previous ones?


I would say that we have too little data to even determine what is early or what is late. The climate has been changing for millions of years. We've been slowly coming out of the last ice age over the past 500 years.

But wouldn’t climate change tend to alter the Atlantic THC in such a manner as to induce a -AMO over time via anomalous cooling of the far North Atlantic?
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Re: When will the multi-decade active era that began in 1995 end?

#471 Postby AlphaToOmega » Thu Jul 22, 2021 7:30 pm

Currently, the western US, an already arid region, is experiencing heavy droughts, and the east is not. How do droughts correlate with AMO?
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Re: When will the multi-decade active era that began in 1995 end?

#472 Postby AlphaToOmega » Tue Aug 03, 2021 8:15 am

In my opinion, there is no concrete evidence supporting the claim that we are in a -AMO phase. We have been in +AMO since the 1990s, and we have been in a consistent +AMO since February 2019. Where are people getting the notion that we are in -AMO?
2019 -0.027 0.068 0.109 0.111 0.075 0.161 0.340 0.326 0.233 0.146 0.098 0.152
2020 0.083 0.344 0.356 0.357 0.254 0.260 0.351 0.436 0.307 0.299 0.123 0.173
2021 0.137 0.149 0.123 0.065 0.082 0.149 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990

Source: https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/amon.us.data
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Re: When will the multi-decade active era that began in 1995 end?

#473 Postby HurricaneEnzo » Tue Aug 03, 2021 9:03 am

AlphaToOmega wrote:In my opinion, there is no concrete evidence supporting the claim that we are in a -AMO phase. We have been in +AMO since the 1990s, and we have been in a consistent +AMO since February 2019. Where are people getting the notion that we are in -AMO?
2019 -0.027 0.068 0.109 0.111 0.075 0.161 0.340 0.326 0.233 0.146 0.098 0.152
2020 0.083 0.344 0.356 0.357 0.254 0.260 0.351 0.436 0.307 0.299 0.123 0.173
2021 0.137 0.149 0.123 0.065 0.082 0.149 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990

Source: https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/amon.us.data


Anytime the 'cool horseshoe' anomaly shows up some people start assuming we are about to usher in a persistent -AMO era no matter how transient that feature usually is. It was showing up earlier this season but has since disappeared.
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Re: When will the multi-decade active era that began in 1995 end?

#474 Postby Shell Mound » Tue Aug 03, 2021 9:07 am

HurricaneEnzo wrote:
AlphaToOmega wrote:In my opinion, there is no concrete evidence supporting the claim that we are in a -AMO phase. We have been in +AMO since the 1990s, and we have been in a consistent +AMO since February 2019. Where are people getting the notion that we are in -AMO?
2019 -0.027 0.068 0.109 0.111 0.075 0.161 0.340 0.326 0.233 0.146 0.098 0.152
2020 0.083 0.344 0.356 0.357 0.254 0.260 0.351 0.436 0.307 0.299 0.123 0.173
2021 0.137 0.149 0.123 0.065 0.082 0.149 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990

Source: https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/amon.us.data

Anytime the 'cool horseshoe' anomaly shoes up some people start assuming we are about to usher in a persistent -AMO era no matter how transient that feature usually is. It was showing up earlier this season but has since disappeared.

The -AMO “horseshoe” is still present in a relative sense. SST in the “horseshoe,” even if warming, are still relatively cooler than in surrounding areas.
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Re: When will the multi-decade active era that began in 1995 end?

#475 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Tue Aug 03, 2021 9:18 am

HurricaneEnzo wrote:
AlphaToOmega wrote:In my opinion, there is no concrete evidence supporting the claim that we are in a -AMO phase. We have been in +AMO since the 1990s, and we have been in a consistent +AMO since February 2019. Where are people getting the notion that we are in -AMO?
2019 -0.027 0.068 0.109 0.111 0.075 0.161 0.340 0.326 0.233 0.146 0.098 0.152
2020 0.083 0.344 0.356 0.357 0.254 0.260 0.351 0.436 0.307 0.299 0.123 0.173
2021 0.137 0.149 0.123 0.065 0.082 0.149 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990

Source: https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/amon.us.data


Anytime the 'cool horseshoe' anomaly shoes up some people start assuming we are about to usher in a persistent -AMO era no matter how transient that feature usually is. It was showing up earlier this season but has since disappeared.

It's interesting because over the past few winters we have had this -AMO-esque cool horseshoe appear for a bit, only to warm up by the spring/early summer. (this year is no exception) I've heard theories thrown out there that we may have made a switch somewhere, but it is being nullified by the WAM, hence why activity hasn't dropped off.
Image
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Re: When will the multi-decade active era that began in 1995 end?

#476 Postby AlphaToOmega » Tue Aug 03, 2021 10:23 am

DorkyMcDorkface wrote:
HurricaneEnzo wrote:
AlphaToOmega wrote:In my opinion, there is no concrete evidence supporting the claim that we are in a -AMO phase. We have been in +AMO since the 1990s, and we have been in a consistent +AMO since February 2019. Where are people getting the notion that we are in -AMO?
2019 -0.027 0.068 0.109 0.111 0.075 0.161 0.340 0.326 0.233 0.146 0.098 0.152
2020 0.083 0.344 0.356 0.357 0.254 0.260 0.351 0.436 0.307 0.299 0.123 0.173
2021 0.137 0.149 0.123 0.065 0.082 0.149 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990

Source: https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/amon.us.data


Anytime the 'cool horseshoe' anomaly shoes up some people start assuming we are about to usher in a persistent -AMO era no matter how transient that feature usually is. It was showing up earlier this season but has since disappeared.

It's interesting because over the past few winters we have had this -AMO-esque cool horseshoe appear for a bit, only to warm up by the spring/early summer. (this year is no exception) I've heard theories thrown out there that we may have made a switch somewhere, but it is being nullified by the WAM, hence why activity hasn't dropped off.
https://psl.noaa.gov/tmp/composites/kAXHyDAUrk.png


The AMO is above average. I want to know where people are getting the notion that the AMO is negative except during the hurricane season. I made a chart graphing monthly AMO values.
Image
As can be seen from the chart, the AMO continues to remain positive, with only occasional dips into the negatives. Hopefully, this put the notion that we are in a -AMO phase to rest. :spam:
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Re: When will the multi-decade active era that began in 1995 end?

#477 Postby NotSparta » Tue Aug 03, 2021 1:07 pm

AlphaToOmega wrote:In my opinion, there is no concrete evidence supporting the claim that we are in a -AMO phase. We have been in +AMO since the 1990s, and we have been in a consistent +AMO since February 2019. Where are people getting the notion that we are in -AMO?
2019 -0.027 0.068 0.109 0.111 0.075 0.161 0.340 0.326 0.233 0.146 0.098 0.152
2020 0.083 0.344 0.356 0.357 0.254 0.260 0.351 0.436 0.307 0.299 0.123 0.173
2021 0.137 0.149 0.123 0.065 0.082 0.149 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990

Source: https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/amon.us.data



This thread is from 2014 when it looked like there was perhaps a -AMO phase beginning. With the exception of early 2018 since 2017 it's just been people saying it hasn't ended
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Re: When will the multi-decade active era that began in 1995 end?

#478 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Tue Aug 03, 2021 1:12 pm

AlphaToOmega wrote:
DorkyMcDorkface wrote:
HurricaneEnzo wrote:
Anytime the 'cool horseshoe' anomaly shoes up some people start assuming we are about to usher in a persistent -AMO era no matter how transient that feature usually is. It was showing up earlier this season but has since disappeared.

It's interesting because over the past few winters we have had this -AMO-esque cool horseshoe appear for a bit, only to warm up by the spring/early summer. (this year is no exception) I've heard theories thrown out there that we may have made a switch somewhere, but it is being nullified by the WAM, hence why activity hasn't dropped off.
https://psl.noaa.gov/tmp/composites/kAXHyDAUrk.png


The AMO is above average. I want to know where people are getting the notion that the AMO is negative except during the hurricane season. I made a chart graphing monthly AMO values.
https://i.postimg.cc/QMkS2TP5/image.png
As can be seen from the chart, the AMO continues to remain positive, with only occasional dips into the negatives. Hopefully, this put the notion that we are in a -AMO phase to rest. :spam:

Keep in mind I personally don't think the +AMO era has ended yet. Was just thinking about some speculation from others that I have heard elsewhere and was just trying to take that into consideration.
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Re: When will the multi-decade active era that began in 1995 end?

#479 Postby Category5Kaiju » Mon Aug 16, 2021 2:27 pm

Not exactly sure where exactly I heard it from or whom, but hasn't there been some talk of major volcanic eruptions influencing AMO, or at least activity in the Atlantic? Not sure how much I would believe that, but I did stuff related to it from time to time
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Re: When will the multi-decade active era that began in 1995 end?

#480 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 24, 2021 1:10 pm

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