Possible Development in the BOC (Is Invest 93L)

[gatorcane]

Model support is pretty good for development and we have an area of disturbed weather that has developed on the tail end of a front. Plus models are showing some more disturbed weather heading into the BOC over the next several days from the Gulf of Tehuantepec and possibly from the remnants of 92E.

Models showing development: UKMET,GFS, FIM, and GEM.
The NAVGEM had development up until the 06Z run where it mysteriously dropped it.
The ECMWF is the least bullish as of now but does show a broad low forming.

[gatorcane]

If you loop this floater, you can clearly see invest 92E pulling west and there is another area to the east gradually lifting north towards the BOC. It looks like another one of those WSW to ENE monsoon gyres which can spin up tropical systems in which generally the models close off a low in the BOC within the next 5-6 days or so from the NE part of the gyre. It's going to be a slow and gradual process in the BOC.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[Hurricaneman]

The eastern area of this gyre is almost in the BOC and should emerge in 12hrs or less if guess of a MLC is right

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[gatorcane]

18Z GFS shows a sloppy mess headed toward Florida on this run. Looks subtropical and frontal. In the BOC though it may be tropical for some period of time.

[jlauderdal]

we have seen this type of setup many times that actually verifies even though its the gfs..several days of rain as moisture surges out of the carribean on the conveyor belt..nothing unusual here..that "cold" front was rather anemic that went through last night..dew points went down to manageable level but the sun was full force today, hot

[NDG]

The question is if anything is going to be left down in the BOC by the time the east coast trough pattern we will be in over the next 1-2 weeks lifts up and then it can track towards FL, but the longer the NW flow stays over FL the lower the chances anything will come this way, IMO.

[blp]

18z Navgem now moving this toward NW Carribean. So every model we have is showing some type of low moving from the BOC to NW Carribean within 7-10 days. Quite a change from yesterday when most had it hanging out in the BOC or driving it inland with no development chance. The big danger is if it gets left behind in the NW carribean to sit for a few days which could allow it to ramp up. We will see what the next 24 hrs brings.

[TheStormExpert]

Having a real hard time anything will come of this and track across the GoM which has been hostile all season and continues to be at this moment.

[gatorcane]

Having a real hard time anything will come of this and track across the GoM which has been hostile all season and continues to be at this moment.

At the moment most of the Gulf is quite dry indeed except the southern BOC. But it's going to be a gradual process here if development in the BOC is going to happen. Late this weekend / early next week, there should be a lot more moisture around the BOC and southern Gulf to work with.

Every global model is showing low pressure forming in the BOC by early to mid next week. Question is not whether there will be a low but whether it develops.

Latest SAT image loop showing gradual moisture and convection increase across the Western Yucatan area and SE Mexico and it should gradually infiltrate the BOC. Also look for moisture to move in from the west in the BOC early next seek from 92E remnants.

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS similar to the 06Z with some kind of low, a little weaker and maybe subtropical heading ENE along the front in the Gulf next week. Trended towards Florida (South Florida) on this run.

So while the ECMWF shows nothing for Florida from this, the GFS is showing a stormy/wet couple of days.

[TheStormExpert]

I'd lean more towards the Euro for obvious reasons. The GFS is just plain useless this year.

[tropicwatch]

This might be the energy that the models are picking up for development in the BOC next week.

[wxman57]

Still looks like a weak frontal low, not a tropical cyclone. There will be plenty of cool, dry air racing down toward the BoC next week behind a moderately-strong cold front.

[boca]

Despite the flaws of the GFS I think it might be right on this one. I think Trudy will aid in the moisture and the Miami NWS seems to be latching on to the idea of a low pressure area forming by the W Gulf or by the Yucatan and moving NE across South Florida. I also observed that it's starting to get juicy down in the BOC as well.

[jlauderdal]

Despite the flaws of the GFS I think it might be right on this one. I think Trudy will aid in the moisture and the Miami NWS seems to be latching on to the idea of a low pressure area forming by the W Gulf or by the Yucatan and moving NE across South Florida. I also observed that it's starting to get juicy down in the BOC as well.

lots of moisture, waves riding the front, limited if any tropical develop, enjoy the wet weather florida...very nice this weekend though

[ronjon]

Interesting that latest GFS runs leave a piece of energy behind in the western Caribbean that eventually makes its way into the GOM. Complex system shaping up.

[gatorcane]

Dry air mixing out of the BOC, within the next few days we should see more convection there associated with 92E as most of the models are forecasting.

[HURRICANELONNY]

So is it Trudy in the EPAC that suppose to send some energy north?

[SFLcane]

Still cant see anything even remotely tropical with this dry sinking airmass in the GOM...

[jlauderdal]

Still cant see anything even remotely tropical with this dry sinking airmass in the GOM...

the airmass isnt going to look like that in 3 days but the net result is similar...tropical development of any significance unlikely

weather today in sofla is absolutely perfect..i guess we could complain about all the sun and the need for suntan lotion but we wont...