Disturbed weather north of Hispanola (Is INVEST 99L)

[cycloneye]

A surface trough interacting with an upper-level low is producing
a persistent area of disturbed weather over most of the Bahamas and
adjacent waters of the western Atlantic and the Florida Straits.
Environmental conditions are currently unfavorable for any
significant development to occur, but they could become somewhat
more conducive over the next several days while the system moves
little or drifts eastward. Regardless of development, locally heavy
rainfall will be possible over the Bahamas during the next couple
of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[northjaxpro]

The EURO had showed this area for possible development a couple of days ago.

Will watch it carefully, but I hope if this area develops, it will hopefully get pulled out to sea.

[GCANE]

Checked some obs around the Bahamas and lowest surface pressure is currently 1013mb

[jlauderdal]

Checked some obs around the Bahamas and lowest surface pressure is currently 1013mb

gfs keeps it hanging around the Bahamas all week then runs it up the coast next weekend on the front..euro farther east with it..looks like a dreary week on the east coast of florda this week

[LarryWx]

2 6Z GEFS members hit SE FL with this vs 1 0Z GEFS member and 5 18Z GEFS members. These hits have been shown for around the Wednesday night-Thursday timeframe. Keeping the bear watch for now though the 0Z Euro is safely offshore.

[LarryWx]

The 12Z GFS safely misses FL. Combining that with recent Euro runs and only 1-2 GEFS members hitting FL in the last 2 runs, I think that the bear watch for FL for this potential will likely be lifted soon. However, NC Outer Banks may need to watch for a little longer.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN OCT 16 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A surface trough interacting with an upper-level low continues to
produce a large area of cloudiness and disorganized showers and
thunderstorms over most of the Bahamas and adjacent waters of the
western Atlantic and the Florida Straits. Environmental conditions
are currently unfavorable for any significant development to occur,
but they could become more conducive by Tuesday or Wednesday while
the system drifts eastward. Regardless of development, locally
heavy rainfall will be possible over the Bahamas during the next
couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/787729791948435456

[BobHarlem]

I'm amazed at this little blob, it's the end of Nicole's very long tail (on satellite).

[bamajammer4eva]

I'm amazed at this little blob, it's the end of Nicole's very long tail (on satellite).

Yep cold front from Nicole according to NHC

[LarryWx]

The 12Z GFS safely misses FL. Combining that with recent Euro runs and only 1-2 GEFS members hitting FL in the last 2 runs, I think that the bear watch for FL for this potential will likely be lifted soon. However, NC Outer Banks may need to watch for a little longer.

Good news. The FL bear watch for the Bahamas system has been canceled from my standpoint! The 12Z Euro has it quite a bit to the east. No 12Z GEFS members even get within 100 miles of FL. So, I think they can rest easy. Also, NC is looking better.

[abajan]

Probability of Formation in 5 Days Up to 40%



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN OCT 16 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A large area of cloudiness and disorganized showers located over
the Bahamas and adjacent western Atlantic waters is associated with
a surface trough that is interacting with an upper-level low.
Environmental conditions are currently unfavorable for significant
development, but they could become more conducive for tropical or
subtropical cyclone formation Tuesday or Wednesday when the
system begins to drift northward or north-northwestward.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible
over much of the Bahamas during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

Forecaster Brown

[Kazmit]

I wonder where this will go after development.

[floridasun78]

I wonder where this will go arter development.

most models got moving out to sea

[GCANE]

Seeing PBL convergence on an axis just south of Andros Island to just north of Hispaniola.

Small 850mb vort at 23.6N 75.6W

Larger 700mb vort at 25.3N 72.5W

UL winds are screaming.

[cycloneye]

A large area of cloudiness and disorganized showers located over the
central and southeastern Bahamas and adjacent western Atlantic
waters is associated with a surface trough that is interacting with
an upper-level low. Upper-level winds are currently unfavorable for
significant development, but they could become more conducive for
tropical or subtropical cyclone formation by late Tuesday or
Wednesday when the system begins to drift northward or
north-northwestward. Regardless of development, locally heavy
rainfall is possible over portions of the Bahamas during the next
day or so.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

[NDG]

At the most happening here is some kind of a weak to moderate sheared system, maybe subtropical/hybrid in nature. CMC is very aggressive with strength while the GFS is much weaker. The Euro is between the two.

[LarryWx]

Despite the increased chance per the NHC of this becoming a TC, the chances of it coming back west enough and hitting the US are now extremely low per model consensus. I'd put those chances at something like 2% and dropping.

[GCANE]

Lowest MSLP I see today around the Turks and Cacios is 1005mb

[GCANE]

Increased 850mb vort over the T&C