2017 EPAC Season
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- Yellow Evan
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2017 EPAC Season
So it's time to make this thread, with 2016 basically done.
I thought 2016 was a tricky forecast ahead of time. However, so far, I don't feel that way about 2017. With similar +PDO and similar ENSO state, I think a season similar to 2016 is likely in all basins to be honest, in what was a remarkable year for tropical cyclones globally. Wind shear should be low, I can't see SST's getting much if any cooler, and I'd say something like 1985 is a good early analogue for 2017. Not ready to pull out initial preliminary numbers though.
Poll numbers from Storm2k users: (will close at 12:00 AM June 1 PDT, you can change your numbers at any point before then. Counting CPHC AOR storms.)
1. Ntwx- 21/13/7 ACE:184
2. cycloneye- 20/11/5 ACE: 160
3. Kingarabian- 20/12/5
4. Hurricanes1234- 19/12/5
5. Weathaguyry- 17/9/4
6.
I thought 2016 was a tricky forecast ahead of time. However, so far, I don't feel that way about 2017. With similar +PDO and similar ENSO state, I think a season similar to 2016 is likely in all basins to be honest, in what was a remarkable year for tropical cyclones globally. Wind shear should be low, I can't see SST's getting much if any cooler, and I'd say something like 1985 is a good early analogue for 2017. Not ready to pull out initial preliminary numbers though.
Poll numbers from Storm2k users: (will close at 12:00 AM June 1 PDT, you can change your numbers at any point before then. Counting CPHC AOR storms.)
1. Ntwx- 21/13/7 ACE:184
2. cycloneye- 20/11/5 ACE: 160
3. Kingarabian- 20/12/5
4. Hurricanes1234- 19/12/5
5. Weathaguyry- 17/9/4
6.
Last edited by Yellow Evan on Fri Apr 28, 2017 11:36 pm, edited 4 times in total.
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season
Not as confident that next year will be the hyperactive season that this one was
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season
Me neither. I think we may just get an average season next year. Personally I believe the active streak of seasons could be drawing to a close, unless somehow ENSO manages to flip back to El Niño.
IMO the chance of a hyperactive season still lingers, but a normal one seems more likely at this point.
However, it's still very early and it's anybody's game.
IMO the chance of a hyperactive season still lingers, but a normal one seems more likely at this point.
However, it's still very early and it's anybody's game.
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- Yellow Evan
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season
Why would it shift back to normal assuming the conditions aren't very different? 1983-85 was one of the busiest stretches (after 1982-84 and 2014-16) in EPAC history, yet 1984 and 1985 were definitely La Ninaish. Expect basin SST's to drop after being high for 3 years?
Also be careful what you wish for. An El Nino could mean a lesser active season like 1991 and 1986, especially if it's west based/Modoki.
Also be careful what you wish for. An El Nino could mean a lesser active season like 1991 and 1986, especially if it's west based/Modoki.
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season
December EPAC SST (24.365 C) 3rd highest on record after the last 2 years.
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- Kingarabian
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season
For me it all comes down to the PDO. It's very likely we wont be having a La Nina for the summer of 2017, instead we should see ENSO at warm neutral/Nino.
If the PDO remains as strong as it was for 2016, there should be no problem in seeing activity happening in bunches.
If the PDO remains as strong as it was for 2016, there should be no problem in seeing activity happening in bunches.
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season
Kingarabian wrote:For me it all comes down to the PDO. It's very likely we wont be having a La Nina for the summer of 2017, instead we should see ENSO at warm neutral/Nino.
If the PDO remains as strong as it was for 2016, there should be no problem in seeing activity happening in bunches.
All signs pointing to +PDO returning for 2017. 2016 many tried to kill off the PDO second half of the year but it remained positive the entire time.
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season
Yea I can't see PDO turning negative, given how consistent it's been the past 3+ years.
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season
Key words from Levi are "Very uncertain this early"
https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/820329738992578561
https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/820330149967265794
https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/820329738992578561
https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/820330149967265794
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season
cycloneye wrote:Key words from Levi are "Very uncertain this early"
https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/820329738992578561
https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/820330149967265794
2009 and 2015 were active EPAC seasons in my book.
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season
https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/d ... Timeseries
EPAC SST's for Jan lowest since 2014, but 4th highest overall behind 1994, 2015, and 2016.
EPAC SST's for Jan lowest since 2014, but 4th highest overall behind 1994, 2015, and 2016.
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- Yellow Evan
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season
https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/d ... Timeseries
Feb 2017 only 6th warmest SST's on record (behind 2015, 2016, 1994, 1995 and 1996). March 2017 tied with 1994 for 3rd warmest behind 2015 and 2016.
Feb 2017 only 6th warmest SST's on record (behind 2015, 2016, 1994, 1995 and 1996). March 2017 tied with 1994 for 3rd warmest behind 2015 and 2016.
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season
Interesting information by Levi about the tracks density anomalies in EPAC.
https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/851430254128357379
https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/851430254128357379
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season
SST's plot of similar east-based El Ninos. I don't know what this means for the PHS. I don't trust the dataset prior to like 1980, and 1993's El Nino went nowhere.
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- Yellow Evan
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season
Get ready to watch the EPAC in the not too distant future. The NASA model- the best at long term genesis model there is when the other models are less bullish- shows a system forming in the South Pacific near Tonga in early May, a sign of increased upward motion that would likely carry over to the EPAC around May 10. The GFS and ECMWF show MJO entering Phase 8 as early as a week from now, and either weakening, likely in response to the atmosphere feeling the effects of more of an El Nino based state which contrasts from the traditional MJO phases observed in 2016, or entering Phase 1 around May 3. The CFS ensembles in the long-range seem to agree, showing an uptick in activity around the start of the second week of May. The CFS itself seems to call for a similar uptick form May 13 to May 27.
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season
Right on Yellow Evan. GFS responds with a long range close to CentralAmerica system.
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season
Biggest takeaway from the above is the NPac high looks like its in its normal hurricane season spot. The GFS will drop this system in a row or two if that isn't obvious.
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- Hurricaneman
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season
My thoughts are an early season flurry of activity then a less than normal peak potentially aiding the Atlantic so we'll see how the walker cell sets up
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season
18z GFS dropped that but it came back at 0z. Expect this to be dropped fairly soon again though it may appear in a few more runs until then.
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