Tropical Wave in Eastern Caribbean

[cycloneye]

Both GFS and ECMWF have this wave as a low latitude rider thru MDR with the models not on consensus on intensity and on the movement.Let's see what happens in the next few days.

Loop:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=24

[RL3AO]

12z Models - July 6th.

[cycloneye]

EC at 192 hours.

[Hurricaneman]

Thanks for starting this, I think this needs to be watched as the 2 major models have at least a tropical storm entering the Caribbean and from there who knows where it goes, could be anywhere between Mexico and The Northeast US

[Kingarabian]

More shear over the lesser Antilles and just north of Puerto Rico this run compared to the 00z Euro. Think it dies in the eastern Caribbean.

[TheStormExpert]

That looks more like an open wave @ 192hrs. rather than a Tropical Storm on the 12z Euro.

[Kingarabian]

Kills it @ hr 216.

[TheStormExpert]

More shear over the lesser Antilles and just north of Puerto Rico this run compared to the 00z Euro. Think it dies in the eastern Caribbean.

You are correct! Now we have the Euro painting an unfavorable environment while the GFS goes nuts(as usual).

[Kingarabian]

Also to note that the 12z Euro moves it slower compared to the 00z run. Shear goes up from 25ks to 40kts.

[Hurricaneman]

The Euro was right about td4 as it always had weak development and killed it while last week the GFS went nuts with it so one would think the Euro might have the best idea with this wave so who knows

[Kingarabian]

Even if it makes it through the high shear in the eastern Caribbean, there's higher shear in the western Caribbean. But that's still 10 days out, and a lot can change IMO.

[TheStormExpert]

What's up with all this shear throughout the Caribbean and into the Central Atlantic? Seems very El Niño-like if you ask me.

[Kingarabian]

What's up with all this shear throughout the Caribbean and into the Central Atlantic? Seems very El Niño-like if you ask me.

It's July. Historically, July is not that active in the Atlantic. And Nino 1+2 although not very warm has consistently been at +0.5C so that may be playing a role.

[cycloneye]

GFS Ensembles.

[wxmann_91]

What's up with all this shear throughout the Caribbean and into the Central Atlantic? Seems very El Niño-like if you ask me.

The shear in the Caribbean is usually high this time of year due to the Caribbean LLJ. This doesn't normally subside until September.

[emeraldislenc]

What is LLJ?

[Hurricane Andrew]

What is LLJ?

Lower-Level Jetstream; a belt of high winds located in the lower portion of the atmosphere. Can basically "decapitate" TCs, knocking the mid-level circulation and accompanying convection clear off the lower-level circulation center, or LLC.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

What's up with all this shear throughout the Caribbean and into the Central Atlantic? Seems very El Niño-like if you ask me.

No.

[RL3AO]

The active convection the epac isn't helping shear in the Caribbean either.

Edit:But as shown above, Caribbean shear actually running below average. There's a reason why we don't get many storms like Dennis and Emily.

[Kingarabian]

Even with the jet, its been ULL after ULL near the Caribbean as Alyono pointed out last week.