CyclonicFury wrote:It's still very early but based on current model signals, I think the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season could be another active one (though probably less active than this year). Unlike this time last year, models do not seem enthusiastic on El Nino development this summer. Although the models are only showing near-normal SSTs for the Atlantic MDR, I'm taking this with a grain of salt since most models actually showed below-normal SSTs for the MDR this season in the long range and the opposite verified (if I remember correctly, Atlantic MDR SSTs were the third warmest on record behind only 2010 and 2005).
With La Nina conditions expected to persist for the next few months (and neutral conditions likely continuing through at least early-mid summer afterwards), chances of a significant El Nino forming in 2018 appear to be low, though predicting ENSO from this range is a challenge (look at how the El Nino forecasts busted this season)! It seems rare to see La Nina quickly transition to El Nino, usually there is a neutral year or two in between. Also, it appears as if we are still in the active era which began in 1995, and the North Atlantic cold blob appears to have nearly dissipated. Although it is only late November, conditions definitely appear to favor an active season next year unless El Nino forms rapidly or we see another AMOC/THC crash like 2013, which isn't the likeliest scenario.
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I'm in complete agreement as well. I don't see anything at this time to suggest things to quiet, unless a midsummer ENSO change or another THC crash. The only year I can think of recently with a sharp change to El Nino was 2006. That said, a season of similar activity requires the deep tropics east of the islands to be favorable as well, which was the first time since 2010 that they were to any significant degree.
I'd say the likelihood for each type:
* "Dead" season (i.e. 2013) -
5%* Below average (i.e. 2014, 2015) -
10%* Near average (i.e. 2007) -
20%* Above average (i.e. 2011, 2016) -
25%* Well above average (i.e. 2010, 2017) -
25%* Near record season (i.e. 2005) -
15%Admittedly our record the last 12 years have been pathetic this far out:
2017 - Consensus: near average; result: well above average
2016 - Consensus: above average; result: above average (correct!)
2015 - Consensus: dead; result: below average
2014 - Consensus: below average; result: below average (correct!)
2013 - Consensus: above average; result: dead (BUST!!!)
2012 - Consensus: near average; result: above average
2011 - Consensus: well above average; result: above average
2010 - Consensus: above average; result: well above average
2009 - Consensus: below average; result: below average
2008 - Consensus: above average; result: above average (correct!)
2007 - Consensus: above average; result: near average
2006 - Consensus: near record season; result: near average (BUST!!!)