Tropical Wave over the SE Bahamas (Is INVEST 91L)

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Aug 22 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave is forecast to emerge off the west coast of Africa
by late Thursday, and then move westward at around 15 mph for the
next several days thereafter. Environmental conditions are expected
to gradually become more conducive for some development to occur by
early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

[AnnularCane]

Showtime?

[Brent]

A circle in the MDR???

[Hammy]

They need something to update regularly or they'll get too bored just like the rest of us

99% chance this goes poof as soon as it hits water.

[AutoPenalti]

Man, I wonder what the huge blowup we saw last week would have done under suitable conditions.

[CyclonicFury]

They need something to update regularly or they'll get too bored just like the rest of us

99% chance this goes poof as soon as it hits water.

I don't think NHC just added this to the TWO because they were bored. Models may not do much of anything to this wave right now, but it will be interesting to see if they latch on over the coming days. It's late August now - the MDR is going to have to wake up soon. There will likely be a couple waves behind this one to watch as well that may have a better shot.

[gatorcane]

No development on today's Euro but it certainly has a vigorous wave tracking through the Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico at 144-168 hours:

[gatorcane]

Euro has this organizing in the Bahamas and heading WNW under a large 500MB ridge over the Eastern US and Western Atlantic at 240 hours:

[SoupBone]

They need something to update regularly or they'll get too bored just like the rest of us

99% chance this goes poof as soon as it hits water.

Is this one coming off far north?

[cycloneye]

No development on today's Euro but it certainly has a vigorous wave tracking through the Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico at 144-168 hours:

https://s8.postimg.cc/4cmldhwat/ecmwf_u ... watl_8.png

Yes,already the San Juan NWS is mentioning it.

Model guidance
have push back the arrival of a better organized tropical wave,
now expected for Wednesday with the bulk of moisture moving across
the local forecast area between Wednesday night and Thursday
morning.

[Hammy]

No development on today's Euro but it certainly has a vigorous wave tracking through the Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico at 144-168 hours:

https://s8.postimg.cc/4cmldhwat/ecmwf_u ... watl_8.png

Yes,already the San Juan NWS is mentioning it.

Model guidance
have push back the arrival of a better organized tropical wave,
now expected for Wednesday with the bulk of moisture moving across
the local forecast area between Wednesday night and Thursday
morning.

Is this the same wave the GFS was showing developing in the central Gulf on yesterday evening's run?

[cycloneye]

No development on today's Euro but it certainly has a vigorous wave tracking through the Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico at 144-168 hours:

https://s8.postimg.cc/4cmldhwat/ecmwf_u ... watl_8.png

Yes,already the San Juan NWS is mentioning it.

Model guidance
have push back the arrival of a better organized tropical wave,
now expected for Wednesday with the bulk of moisture moving across
the local forecast area between Wednesday night and Thursday
morning.

Is this the same wave the GFS was showing developing in the central Gulf on yesterday evening's run?

No as that one was comming out from EPAC and crossed into BOC.

[canes92]

Doubt this will be another Irma, at least hope not.

[Hammy]

Yes,already the San Juan NWS is mentioning it.

Model guidance
have push back the arrival of a better organized tropical wave,
now expected for Wednesday with the bulk of moisture moving across
the local forecast area between Wednesday night and Thursday
morning.

Is this the same wave the GFS was showing developing in the central Gulf on yesterday evening's run?

No as that one was comming out from EPAC and crossed into BOC.

No I mean there was one going through the Keys on an earlier run yesterday.

[Dean4Storms]

That's a bad look with a system in the Bahamas organizing on Sept.1 and a big ridge over the Eastern CONUS.

[stormlover2013]

yep!! Andrew or rita type track

[drezee]

That's a bad look with a system in the Bahamas organizing on Sept.1 and a big ridge over the Eastern CONUS.

Agreed, fuel and good upper levels ahead. Not good at all. 10 days out though....check back in 3 days

[wxGuy]

No development on today's Euro but it certainly has a vigorous wave tracking through the Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico at 144-168 hours:

https://s8.postimg.cc/4cmldhwat/ecmwf_u ... watl_8.png

Yes,already the San Juan NWS is mentioning it.

Model guidance
have push back the arrival of a better organized tropical wave,
now expected for Wednesday with the bulk of moisture moving across
the local forecast area between Wednesday night and Thursday
morning.

Is this the same wave the GFS was showing developing in the central Gulf on yesterday evening's run?

thats what im thinking

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Aug 22 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave is forecast to emerge off the west coast of Africa
late Thursday and then move westward at 15 to 20 mph for the
next several days. Environmental conditions could become more
conducive for some development of the wave early next week over the
central tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

[gatorcane]

No development on today's Euro but it certainly has a vigorous wave tracking through the Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico at 144-168 hours:

https://s8.postimg.cc/4cmldhwat/ecmwf_u ... watl_8.png

Yes,already the San Juan NWS is mentioning it.

Model guidance
have push back the arrival of a better organized tropical wave,
now expected for Wednesday with the bulk of moisture moving across
the local forecast area between Wednesday night and Thursday
morning.

Is this the same wave the GFS was showing developing in the central Gulf on yesterday evening's run?

Yes, the GFS looks to maybe organize this once in the GOM in the long-range after crossing Cuba and Hispaniola: