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Strong Tropical Wave emerging from West Africa (Is INVEST 90L)
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cycloneye
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Strong Tropical Wave emerging from West Africa (Is INVEST 90L)
I think is time to have a thread for the wave that will emerge Africa in a few days as the models are bullish on it.
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Hurricaneman
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Re: Tropical Wave inside Africa (Models develop)
Yep right there in Senegal. I also see a possibility that the yellow comes out for this at 2. The thing to watch is how this does around 7 to 8 days going through the tutt.
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cycloneye
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Re: Tropical Wave inside Africa (Models develop)
CMC on days 4-5.
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cycloneye
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Re: Tropical Wave inside Africa (Models develop)
Not at 2 PM.
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Aug 27 2018
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
$$
Forecaster Beven
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Aug 27 2018
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
$$
Forecaster Beven
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floridasun78
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Re: Tropical Wave inside Africa (Models develop)
one offf Africa could on outlook by tue if look better by than
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MississippiWx
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Re: Tropical Wave inside Africa (Models develop)
This wave at 25w looks impressive today. Nice spin and a lot of convection.
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Re: Tropical Wave inside Africa (Models develop)
What kind of paths are they showing? Hopefully not FL because some areas of the Keys are just now cleaning up the canals, almost a year after Irma.
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cycloneye
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Re: Tropical Wave inside Africa (Models develop)
12z Euro develops this wave.
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gatorcane
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Re: Tropical Wave inside Africa (Models develop)
Coming into Western Caribbean view heading WNW in the long-range. Also looks to be organizing and not weakening like the GFS shows:
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chris_fit
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Re: Tropical Wave inside Africa (Models develop)
Can someone post the GFS and ECMF ensembles for this wave?
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Re: Tropical Wave inside Africa (Models develop)
gatorcane wrote:Coming into Western Caribbean view heading WNW in the long-range. Also looks to be organizing and not weakening like the GFS shows:
Currently showing a recurve? Also, look at that crap heading into Texas.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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AutoPenalti
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Re: Tropical Wave inside Africa (Models develop)
Which such a stout ridge, I’m baffled at seeing a recurve scenario...
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
Re: Tropical Wave inside Africa (Models develop)
AutoPenalti wrote:Which such a stout ridge, I’m baffled at seeing a recurve scenario...
Well, it is a long ways out. Lots can change in that time frame. I remember a few days ago when the models started showing these as recurves asking that question because people were talking about the ridge in place then. It looked like the models showed the ridge retreating to the Northeast, allowing for the systems to recurve. Seems fishy (pun intended).
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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gatorcane
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Re: Tropical Wave inside Africa (Models develop)
Lots of convection blowing up over Africa and eastern MDR:
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cycloneye
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Re: Tropical Wave inside Africa (Models develop)
Another GFS run (18z) develops the wave.
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galaxy401
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Re: Tropical Wave inside Africa (Models develop)
NHC remains unimpressed. No mention in the latest outlook.
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Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.
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Hurricaneman
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Re: Tropical Wave inside Africa (Models develop)
galaxy401 wrote:NHC remains unimpressed. No mention in the latest outlook.
They will wait til splashdown probably as the GFS is holding out, it then that we’ll see which is right in the models
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CyclonicFury
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Re: Tropical Wave inside Africa (Models develop)
I think NHC is waiting for all models to agree that development is in the 5 day window. I'm expecting a mention tomorrow if models continue to show development.
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NCSU B.S. in Meteorology Class of 2021. Tropical weather blogger at http://www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.
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CyclonicFury
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Re: Tropical Wave inside Africa (Models develop)
00z GFS again going with development. Expecting a NHC mention soon.
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NCSU B.S. in Meteorology Class of 2021. Tropical weather blogger at http://www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.