2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#1381 Postby LarryWx » Sun Oct 06, 2019 7:11 pm



MJO phase at genesis for 19 TCs since 1975 that were in Caribbean/GOM & later hit CONUS Oct-Nov: (C = inside circle)
Does anyone see any tendency?

1985: Juan 8
1985: Kate 5
1987: Floyd 4 (C)
1988: Keith 2 (C)
1989: Jerry 4
1990: Marco 1
1994: Gordon 2
1995: Opal 5 (C)
1996: Josephine 1 (C)
1998: Mitch 8 (C)
1999: Irene 2 (C)
2002: Lili 1 (C)
2004: Matthew 5
2005: Wilma 4
2009: Ida 2
2012: Sandy 2
2016: Matthew 5
2017: Nate 1 (C)
2018: Michael 1

Out of these 19, # of geneses within each MJO phase
Phase 1: 5 (2 outside circle)
Phase 2: 5 (3 outside circle)
Phase 3: 0
Phase 4: 3 (2 outside circle)
Phase 5: 4 (3 outside circle)
Phase 6: 0
Phase 7: 0
Phase 8: 2 (1 outside circle)
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#1382 Postby NDG » Mon Oct 07, 2019 7:09 am

LarryWx wrote:


MJO phase at genesis for 19 TCs since 1975 that were in Caribbean/GOM & later hit CONUS Oct-Nov: (C = inside circle)
Does anyone see any tendency?

1985: Juan 8
1985: Kate 5
1987: Floyd 4 (C)
1988: Keith 2 (C)
1989: Jerry 4
1990: Marco 1
1994: Gordon 2
1995: Opal 5 (C)
1996: Josephine 1 (C)
1998: Mitch 8 (C)
1999: Irene 2 (C)
2002: Lili 1 (C)
2004: Matthew 5
2005: Wilma 4
2009: Ida 2
2012: Sandy 2
2016: Matthew 5
2017: Nate 1 (C)
2018: Michael 1

Out of these 19, # of geneses within each MJO phase
Phase 1: 5 (2 outside circle)
Phase 2: 5 (3 outside circle)
Phase 3: 0
Phase 4: 3 (2 outside circle)
Phase 5: 4 (3 outside circle)
Phase 6: 0
Phase 7: 0
Phase 8: 2 (1 outside circle)


Nice work. One thing for sure is that the MJO will not be in phases 6 & 7 any time soon so the chances of tropical development while the MJO remains near Phase 1 & eventually phase 2 as some models show are fairly high.
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#1383 Postby LarryWx » Mon Oct 07, 2019 1:19 pm

LarryWx wrote:


MJO phase at genesis for 19 TCs since 1975 that were in Caribbean/GOM & later hit CONUS Oct-Nov: (C = inside circle)
Does anyone see any tendency?

1985: Juan 8
1985: Kate 5
1987: Floyd 4 (C)
1988: Keith 2 (C)
1989: Jerry 4
1990: Marco 1
1994: Gordon 2
1995: Opal 5 (C)
1996: Josephine 1 (C)
1998: Mitch 8 (C)
1999: Irene 2 (C)
2002: Lili 1 (C)
2004: Matthew 5
2005: Wilma 4
2009: Ida 2
2012: Sandy 2
2016: Matthew 5
2017: Nate 1 (C)
2018: Michael 1

Out of these 19, # of geneses within each MJO phase
Phase 1: 5 (2 outside circle)
Phase 2: 5 (3 outside circle)
Phase 3: 0
Phase 4: 3 (2 outside circle)
Phase 5: 4 (3 outside circle)
Phase 6: 0
Phase 7: 0
Phase 8: 2 (1 outside circle)


Further to the above, there were 17 US Gulf TS+ landfalls in 44 years in Oct/Nov implying a 39% chance of a US Gulf TS+ LF each Oct/Nov. Out of the 17 LFs, 10 were as Hs and 7 were as Ts.

Locations of the 17 US Gulf LFs:

TX-C LA: 3
E LA-AL: 3
FL Panhandle: 3
W FL: 3
SW/S FL: 5
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#1384 Postby Hammy » Tue Oct 08, 2019 1:56 am

Now that we're into October I have to wonder why this year seems like it's been so heavily MJO-dependent on activity, almost like an active version of 2014 (the last year I recall such a thing happening to this extent). The activity has been largely sporadic and not at all typical of an above-average season, fading just as quickly as it began once the sinking motion moved in (which in other years has simply meant struggling systems, not a complete lack during that time).

Another peculiar aspect to this season is that at no point were two consecutive storms able to find favorable conditions to reach hurricane intensity, but instead consisting of a general pattern of every other storm--something that I don't believe has happened in any season with at least four hurricanes (and with only five to date, a fairly low number for the number of named storms we've had--despite the ones that did reach hurricane intensity being over-achievers.
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#1385 Postby tolakram » Tue Oct 08, 2019 7:13 am

I think we're simply witnessing what would have otherwise been a normal to slightly below normal season outperform. Why did it outperform? I don't have the answer but had conditions basin wide been favorable I have no doubt this would have been a hyperactive season. The only question now is, once the front clears out, will we have the typical bump in activity before the season slows in November? We will only now if something will form 5 days or less from formation in my opinion, so we wait.
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#1386 Postby SFLcane » Thu Oct 10, 2019 12:58 pm

Conditions look pretty favorable till mid month then it looks like its all down hill from there. All in all i think we have about 2-3 weeks to see if something festers in the carib.

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1179827142604906496


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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#1387 Postby psyclone » Thu Oct 10, 2019 1:21 pm

Despite a lack of a strong front so far, the water temps (at least locally) are slowly losing steam thanks to just decreased solar insolation. We're in the low 80's now in the eastern gulf on this anniversary of Michael. The window isn't closed yet but the annual seasonal contraction (of both posting activity and geographic favorability) is and has been well underway.
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#1388 Postby gatorcane » Thu Oct 10, 2019 7:25 pm

One thing I noticed is that models don’t bring any “season ending” cold front that sweeps through Florida and into the NW Caribbean anytime soon, so as long as we don’t see that, the season continues for us here in South Florida.
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#1389 Postby Kazmit » Thu Oct 10, 2019 7:27 pm

When's the last time the Atlantic had a storm-less October? It seems very unlikely in terms of climo...
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#1390 Postby Monsoonjr99 » Thu Oct 10, 2019 8:08 pm

Maybe the CAG might develop something, but the Atlantic seems to have been in shutdown mode since Lorenzo peaked. The Atlantic had quite the impressive burst of 10 named storms in a little over a month, including two cat5s. It now seems to need to rest since nothing has formed since Lorenzo despite a supposedly favorable MJO. This year is not playing like last year as these subtropics disturbances don't want to develop. Maybe after this peak-season burst the 2019 Atlantic season is back to its off-peak ways and October might not be much more active than the first two-thirds of August. 2019 seems to be acting like 2002, but I don't expect Lorenzo to truly be the end of the season yet. If nothing materializes from this CAG, maybe Melissa forms late this month or in November from something else.
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#1391 Postby gatorcane » Thu Oct 10, 2019 8:51 pm

2019 season to date. Just hard to believe the season ends with no storms that form in the Caribbean, especially with no El Niño and above normal SSTs.

Image
Image
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#1392 Postby SconnieCane » Fri Oct 11, 2019 1:18 pm



So what happened to this supposedly very favorable pattern? Not saying a Wilma/Mitch/Michael redux was likely, but certainly on the table. GFS was trumpeting some type of development out of the W. Caribbean but seems to be finally capitulating to the consensus of the other models on less potential for development there.

Someone posted earlier this year that tropical watching isn't fun anymore because the models have become too good. I disagree, there's still much we don't know about medium to long-range weather forecasting.
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#1393 Postby Hammy » Fri Oct 11, 2019 10:09 pm

Monsoonjr99 wrote:Maybe the CAG might develop something, but the Atlantic seems to have been in shutdown mode since Lorenzo peaked. The Atlantic had quite the impressive burst of 10 named storms in a little over a month, including two cat5s. It now seems to need to rest since nothing has formed since Lorenzo despite a supposedly favorable MJO. This year is not playing like last year as these subtropics disturbances don't want to develop. Maybe after this peak-season burst the 2019 Atlantic season is back to its off-peak ways and October might not be much more active than the first two-thirds of August. 2019 seems to be acting like 2002, but I don't expect Lorenzo to truly be the end of the season yet. If nothing materializes from this CAG, maybe Melissa forms late this month or in November from something else.


2007 is another season that comes to mind for this year. 13 storms but only five hurricanes up to this point in both years, largely sporadic activity with the overwhelming majority of the activity forming in about over about five weeks, and with the exception of three systems, mostly comprised of weaker, shorter-lived storms in the Gulf and subtropics, and seeing a lot of storms (and potential storms) struggle that in more typical active seasons would develop or strengthen. But then you had the 2-3 big storms that made the season but at the same time felt out of place compared to the rest of the season's activity, almost as if the remainder of the activity belonged in 2013 (and ironically this year shares the same name list as both of those years.)
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#1394 Postby MarioProtVI » Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:01 pm

Hammy wrote:
Monsoonjr99 wrote:Maybe the CAG might develop something, but the Atlantic seems to have been in shutdown mode since Lorenzo peaked. The Atlantic had quite the impressive burst of 10 named storms in a little over a month, including two cat5s. It now seems to need to rest since nothing has formed since Lorenzo despite a supposedly favorable MJO. This year is not playing like last year as these subtropics disturbances don't want to develop. Maybe after this peak-season burst the 2019 Atlantic season is back to its off-peak ways and October might not be much more active than the first two-thirds of August. 2019 seems to be acting like 2002, but I don't expect Lorenzo to truly be the end of the season yet. If nothing materializes from this CAG, maybe Melissa forms late this month or in November from something else.


2007 is another season that comes to mind for this year. 13 storms but only five hurricanes up to this point in both years, largely sporadic activity with the overwhelming majority of the activity forming in about over about five weeks, and with the exception of three systems, mostly comprised of weaker, shorter-lived storms in the Gulf and subtropics, and seeing a lot of storms (and potential storms) struggle that in more typical active seasons would develop or strengthen. But then you had the 2-3 big storms that made the season but at the same time felt out of place compared to the rest of the season's activity, almost as if the remainder of the activity belonged in 2013 (and ironically this year shares the same name list as both of those years.)

At least 2019 was able to achieve variety, compared to other List 5 seasons, which couldn’t even have a C2-4 in thrown into the mix with the other TD/TS/C1/C5s. Comparing this to 2013 or 2007 just because October seemed dead and “2-3 big ones” (Dorian/Lorenzo) are similar to Dean/Felix is a bit overdramatic. Frankly, IMO, this is the best List 5 season since 2001. Each season is unique in its own way.
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#1395 Postby Hammy » Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:23 pm

MarioProtVI wrote:
Hammy wrote:
Monsoonjr99 wrote:Maybe the CAG might develop something, but the Atlantic seems to have been in shutdown mode since Lorenzo peaked. The Atlantic had quite the impressive burst of 10 named storms in a little over a month, including two cat5s. It now seems to need to rest since nothing has formed since Lorenzo despite a supposedly favorable MJO. This year is not playing like last year as these subtropics disturbances don't want to develop. Maybe after this peak-season burst the 2019 Atlantic season is back to its off-peak ways and October might not be much more active than the first two-thirds of August. 2019 seems to be acting like 2002, but I don't expect Lorenzo to truly be the end of the season yet. If nothing materializes from this CAG, maybe Melissa forms late this month or in November from something else.


2007 is another season that comes to mind for this year. 13 storms but only five hurricanes up to this point in both years, largely sporadic activity with the overwhelming majority of the activity forming in about over about five weeks, and with the exception of three systems, mostly comprised of weaker, shorter-lived storms in the Gulf and subtropics, and seeing a lot of storms (and potential storms) struggle that in more typical active seasons would develop or strengthen. But then you had the 2-3 big storms that made the season but at the same time felt out of place compared to the rest of the season's activity, almost as if the remainder of the activity belonged in 2013 (and ironically this year shares the same name list as both of those years.)

At least 2019 was able to achieve variety, compared to other List 5 seasons, which couldn’t even have a C2-4 in thrown into the mix with the other TD/TS/C1/C5s. Comparing this to 2013 or 2007 just because October seemed dead and “2-3 big ones” (Dorian/Lorenzo) are similar to Dean/Felix is a bit overdramatic. Frankly, IMO, this is the best List 5 season since 2001. Each season is unique in its own way.


There was no comparison to 2013 aside from most of the storms seeming like they belonged in that sort of season instead of in what turned out to be an above-average season (it was to illustrate how strange this season has been overall.) 2007 is a valid comparison and, save for one more major hurricane, the numbers are the same and both featured either extreme intensity, or weak short-lived storms with lengthy quiet periods between relatively short bursts of activity. And Andrea, Erin, Gabrielle, and Karen (and the many struggling invests with otherwise favorable conditions) aren't the type of storms you'd see in the same season as Dorian, Humberto, and Lorenzo.
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#1396 Postby StruThiO » Sun Oct 13, 2019 1:07 pm

Image

Thanks Atlantic, very cool.
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#1397 Postby MarioProtVI » Sun Oct 13, 2019 1:22 pm

StruThiO wrote:https://i.imgur.com/ISs0pGg.png

Thanks Atlantic, very cool.

Looks like we will see at least Nestor for sure if 94L develops. Not so sure on the other two AOIs. Possible we see Olga if 94 and the west Carib AOI develop but I'm not holding my bets yet. After 180h I think the Gulf will be permanently closed until next year due to one of those "season-ending" cold fronts sweeping through and establishing very dry air behind it on the GFS. Nevertheless if the Atlantic goes quiet for good after this last burst of activity I think 2019 will be known as another destructive above-average season (the fourth consecutive in a row since 2016), even with a little deficit in the hurricane total 14-5-3 (maybe even 14-6-3 if Nestor/94L spins up fast enough) with about 120 ACE is still good, especially for List 5 which hasn't had a good season since 2001.
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#1398 Postby gatorcane » Tue Oct 15, 2019 12:51 pm

The GFS is going with another EPAC storm from a CAG. If that happens, the Western Caribbean may stay too sheared rest of this month. Could we make it out of October with not one Caribbean storm despite all of the favorable indicators heading into this month?
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#1399 Postby SFLcane » Tue Oct 15, 2019 2:02 pm

gatorcane wrote:The GFS is going with another EPAC storm from a CAG. If that happens, the Western Caribbean may stay too sheared rest of this month. Could we make it out of October with not one Caribbean storm despite all of the favorable indicators heading into this month?


The thing is the favorable indicators verified...Just on the Pacific side of things. That's always one of the possible outcomes with gyre set ups mjo Mjo Phase 1 can do either really. The persistent upper level ridge over the gulf and Southeast is also keeping things suppress to the South.
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#1400 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Oct 15, 2019 2:52 pm

SFLcane wrote:
gatorcane wrote:The GFS is going with another EPAC storm from a CAG. If that happens, the Western Caribbean may stay too sheared rest of this month. Could we make it out of October with not one Caribbean storm despite all of the favorable indicators heading into this month?


The thing is the favorable indicators verified...Just on the Pacific side of things. That's always one of the possible outcomes with gyre set ups mjo Mjo Phase 1 can do either really. The persistent upper level ridge over the gulf and Southeast is also keeping things suppress to the South.

Presently, I don't see any favorable indicators in the EPAC.
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