2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
StruThiO
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 821
Age: 24
Joined: Fri Sep 15, 2017 5:51 am
Location: Currently Portland, OR. Raised in Jax, FL.

Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#1361 Postby StruThiO » Fri Sep 27, 2019 4:16 pm

1 likes   

User avatar
Steve
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8604
Joined: Sat Apr 05, 2003 11:41 pm
Location: Not a state-caster

Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#1362 Postby Steve » Fri Sep 27, 2019 5:59 pm

Gator,

While I agree the US has escaped the worst of the storms, obviously there have been impacts probably into the hundreds of millions or so. I just wonder if the end game, if we are within 3 to 3 1/2 weeks or so,will have something coming up and hitting y’all or maybe something coming up in the Gulf from the BoC or Caribbean. The setup the next 10 days would have screwed us all if there would have been anything under the ridge. And there’s another one GFS has coming off the east coast after that, so idk if we are out the woods yet or not

Good to read some of those tweets that said an above average season is a formality by now. I wasn’t buying it, but with the 40+ we got from Dorian, chances went up. Now they have to be about 90% of > 110.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138878
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#1363 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 28, 2019 6:46 pm

1 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
StruThiO
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 821
Age: 24
Joined: Fri Sep 15, 2017 5:51 am
Location: Currently Portland, OR. Raised in Jax, FL.

Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#1364 Postby StruThiO » Sat Sep 28, 2019 9:17 pm

2019 joins the elite club of 1932, 1933, 1961, 2005, 2007, and 2017 with more than one category five.
4 likes   

User avatar
Steve
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8604
Joined: Sat Apr 05, 2003 11:41 pm
Location: Not a state-caster

Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#1365 Postby Steve » Mon Sep 30, 2019 12:48 pm

it also joins the seasons that were above average as 2019 is officially now as well.
1 likes   

psyclone
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4487
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 9:04 pm
Location: palm harbor fl

Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#1366 Postby psyclone » Mon Sep 30, 2019 1:36 pm

FWIW sea temps in the eastern Gulf are now a good bit cooler than they were a year ago heading into October when they were as warm as I've ever observed. While temps have overall been above normal, we've had quite a bit of strong east winds stirring and turning over the cauldron...with the net effect being water temps in the low to mid 80's...several degrees lower than 1 year ago. Still plenty warm to support tropical mischief...but nothing like a year ago and a good bit cooler than the western Gulf..
3 likes   

MarioProtVI
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 662
Age: 22
Joined: Sun Sep 29, 2019 7:33 pm
Location: New Jersey

Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#1367 Postby MarioProtVI » Tue Oct 01, 2019 1:31 pm

Possible we get at least 2 storms during October since some models (like the EURO) are indicating at least something to watch could be in the MDR later on this week. Would not be surprised to see another storm there and it would be nice to have an October MDR storm (in fact last year had one - Nadine).

Also of course watching the W Carib as some models have shown that something could possibly try to brew there. GFS especially consistent on a long-range (around October 12 or so) storm somewhere in the W Carib. Normally I would dismiss it at long range but given its been persistent with some type of system there at that timeframe for the last several runs (since at least late Sunday) makes me wonder. Then again it could be a ghost considering GFS has been pretty bad this year with forecasting (Dorian).
1 likes   

jconsor
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 533
Joined: Mon Jun 30, 2008 9:31 pm
Location: Jerusalem, Israel
Contact:

Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#1368 Postby jconsor » Tue Oct 01, 2019 11:27 pm

5 likes   

User avatar
Emmett_Brown
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1343
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 9:10 pm
Location: Sarasota FL

Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#1369 Postby Emmett_Brown » Wed Oct 02, 2019 6:52 am

The overall pattern is looking more like late August than early October, with a huge heat wave high in the east. The air looks pretty stable over the Caribbean, even though pressures are somewhat low.
4 likes   

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9593
Age: 46
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#1370 Postby SFLcane » Thu Oct 03, 2019 11:25 am

1 likes   

User avatar
TheStormExpert
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8487
Age: 30
Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL

Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#1371 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Oct 03, 2019 1:40 pm

4 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.

User avatar
MetroMike
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 825
Joined: Sun Aug 29, 2004 8:13 pm
Location: Tampa Bay
Contact:

Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#1372 Postby MetroMike » Thu Oct 03, 2019 2:39 pm



I can see the bell signaling the end of the season. What was supposed to be an active month given the favorable parameters supposedly in place there seems to be underlying negative factors in place suppressing lows from doing anything but popping up and dying.
1 likes   

psyclone
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4487
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 9:04 pm
Location: palm harbor fl

Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#1373 Postby psyclone » Thu Oct 03, 2019 2:57 pm

That's a change from Noll's earlier tweets to watch the Gulf and western Caribbean during October. Hopefully this gives a massive torpedo to the October hurricane risk in the usual hot zones. Still too soon to know for sure but we are tilting the right direction.
5 likes   

User avatar
DioBrando
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 917
Age: 27
Joined: Sun Aug 12, 2018 12:45 pm

Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#1374 Postby DioBrando » Thu Oct 03, 2019 10:48 pm

I'll be reasonable here; thinking that the season will end with Lorenzo (hey!) because of a veeeery short lull is honestly rather daft just because you've seen one JMA model run for VPA (which usually leans conservative for Atlantic development.) How I'm seeing it is that, constantly, models have been pointing at genesis in the West Indies for what would likely become Mel, which I believe might likely happen. People have said, and I do agree that, for the time being, conditions are much more favourable for EPac genesis. My personal opinion? We might have to wait for genesis but not for too long; the remainder of the season will likely see up to about 3 more storms, regardless if they're weak Central Atlantic storms, they'll pop up anywhere.

For any indication to how we might progress from here on, I'd refer to Yaakov Cantor's tweet waay above mine.

(WINK WINK: Given the pattern this year I think we'll see two tropical storms and one hurricane named Nestor, no idea on strength yet. Don't take my word for it though.)
6 likes   
blonde stacey (xe/xem/xir)

User avatar
EquusStorm
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1649
Age: 33
Joined: Thu Nov 07, 2013 1:04 pm
Location: Jasper, AL
Contact:

Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#1375 Postby EquusStorm » Fri Oct 04, 2019 1:13 am

Yeah even though 2002 and 2006 technically had no named storms develop after September I see those as major exceptions rather than the rule... I remember last year the season cancel posts while Kirk was struggling, just TWO WEEKS before a category five US landfall. Never ever ever turn your back on October, in both the Atlantic and Epac. Even November, really. No matter the broader-scale indicators, it doesn't take much more than a brief window of opportunity for something to blow up in WCarib. Just need shear to drop for a few days and it's off to the races.
7 likes   
Colors of lost purpose on the canvas of irrelevance

Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 19138
Age: 60
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#1376 Postby tolakram » Fri Oct 04, 2019 6:07 am

It's the October pause as the patterns shift. I think people that have been watching a while are used to it. In my opinion the models won't be showing anything of significance until next week or a bit later. Nothing believable past 5 days anyway. Some seasons drop off rapidly at this point but most have another mini peak in mid to late October.

Image
8 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
TheStormExpert
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8487
Age: 30
Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL

Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#1377 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Oct 04, 2019 8:58 am

The models this season seem to have struggled with showing development 3-5 days prior to development with a few exceptions like Lorenzo, etc. So if development were to occur in the Western Caribbean later this month it might be a bit before we see all models latch on if at all.
3 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.

User avatar
Steve
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8604
Joined: Sat Apr 05, 2003 11:41 pm
Location: Not a state-caster

Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#1378 Postby Steve » Fri Oct 04, 2019 9:15 am

2013
2013
2013
0 likes   

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9593
Age: 46
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#1379 Postby SFLcane » Sun Oct 06, 2019 1:33 pm

1 likes   

LarryWx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5686
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: GA

Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#1380 Postby LarryWx » Sun Oct 06, 2019 1:36 pm



If I can make some time, I'm going to look for other Octobers with similar MJO back to 1974 to see what ended up happening those
Octobers.
1 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: WAcyclone, WoodberryWx and 72 guests