2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#1401 Postby SFLcane » Tue Oct 15, 2019 4:05 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
SFLcane wrote:
gatorcane wrote:The GFS is going with another EPAC storm from a CAG. If that happens, the Western Caribbean may stay too sheared rest of this month. Could we make it out of October with not one Caribbean storm despite all of the favorable indicators heading into this month?


The thing is the favorable indicators verified...Just on the Pacific side of things. That's always one of the possible outcomes with gyre set ups mjo Mjo Phase 1 can do either really. The persistent upper level ridge over the gulf and Southeast is also keeping things suppress to the South.

Presently, I don't see any favorable indicators in the EPAC.


Phase 8/1 can be either side of Central America. It doesn't favor the Western part of the EPac. Just that part shoved right against the continent If it weren't for the Gulf ridge it would come north. We've had ridging all summer and fall except for the 3 days Dorian was in the Bahamas.
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#1402 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Oct 18, 2019 9:18 am

This season really overall just turned out to be similarly active to that of last season. ACE too isn’t too far behind last seasons totals at the moment.
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#1403 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Fri Oct 18, 2019 11:41 am

TheStormExpert wrote:This season really overall just turned out to be similarly active to that of last season. ACE too isn’t too far behind last seasons totals at the moment.

Yep. Not hyperactive or record setting in terms of ace or named storms, but just an above average season. However, two category 5 storms is quite impressive. We have had 6 (Joaquin and Jose were close) of these in only 4 seasons after not a single one from 08-15.
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#1404 Postby gatorcane » Sun Oct 20, 2019 8:33 pm

Looks like some record breaking heat across parts of Florida with Orlando I believe setting daytime high records. Even here in South Florida it just feels hot and muggy still. Tampa has still not seen a sub-70F low yet which not sure has happened in October before. Looks like Orlando and Central Florida will cool some this week to highs in the low 80s but overall global models show above normal for Florida for the next 10 days at least and no season-ending front in the foreseeable future. So not sure if these are any indicators the Caribbean threat to Florida may persist a bit longer this year through at least end of month or maybe early November?
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#1405 Postby EquusStorm » Thu Oct 24, 2019 4:02 pm

Gale center near Azores I think partly fueled by Nestor's remnants looking neat this evening...
Image
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#1406 Postby StruThiO » Fri Oct 25, 2019 3:57 pm

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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#1407 Postby HurricaneRyan » Fri Oct 25, 2019 4:48 pm

Will we actually get Rebekah for the very first time this year?
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#1408 Postby chaser1 » Sat Oct 26, 2019 12:47 am

HurricaneRyan wrote:Will we actually get Rebekah for the very first time this year?


The things that NHC will name LOL. I swear, it really makes my head spin. Oh NO?! I never should've said "spin". Chances are they may very well go ahead and name my head Rebekah too.
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#1409 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Sat Oct 26, 2019 5:47 am

chaser1 wrote:
HurricaneRyan wrote:Will we actually get Rebekah for the very first time this year?


The things that NHC will name LOL. I swear, it really makes my head spin. Oh NO?! I never should've said "spin". Chances are they may very well go ahead and name my head Rebekah too.


Olga and Pablo met the criteria for a closed low level warm core circulation and were true tropical storms.
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#1410 Postby USTropics » Sat Oct 26, 2019 6:46 am

I don't see the problem with either upgrade, they were both supported by data.

Pablo had a defined surface circulation with at least 40kts near the center, as captured by ASCAT:
Image

Olga had a clear surface circulation with 45kts, as captured by recon:
Image
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#1411 Postby CyclonicFury » Sat Oct 26, 2019 4:34 pm

2019 is now the fourth consecutive season in the Atlantic basin with at least 15 named storms. That has never happened before on record.
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#1412 Postby HurricaneRyan » Sun Oct 27, 2019 1:36 pm

I feel like 2003 might be a good analog year for activity. A lot of storms but not as many hurricanes. October especially feels like 2003 with the amount of named storms but no majors.

Dorian = Isabel.
Fabian = Lorenzo
Kate = Humberto
Pablo = Danny
Olga = Bill
Andrea = Ana
Erika = Fernand
Nestor = Henri
Grace = Imelda
Gabrielle = Nicholas
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#1413 Postby DioBrando » Sun Oct 27, 2019 9:36 pm

HurricaneRyan wrote:I feel like 2003 might be a good analog year for activity. A lot of storms but not as many hurricanes. October especially feels like 2003 with the amount of named storms but no majors.

Dorian = Isabel.
Fabian = Lorenzo
Kate = Humberto
Pablo = Danny
Olga = Bill
Andrea = Ana
Erika = Fernand
Nestor = Henri
Grace = Imelda
Gabrielle = Nicholas


I totally see the 2003 gang you mentioned being the 2019 storms' counterparts!
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#1414 Postby CyclonicFury » Sun Oct 27, 2019 9:54 pm

Pablo could be the last named storm of the season, but there is definitely a significant chance the Atlantic produces one more based on climatology. It's going to be interesting to see if anything forms in November.
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#1415 Postby DioBrando » Sun Oct 27, 2019 10:56 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:Pablo could be the last named storm of the season, but there is definitely a significant chance the Atlantic produces one more based on climatology. It's going to be interesting to see if anything forms in November.

I predict one more system given the weirdness of this season honestly
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#1416 Postby AnnularCane » Sun Oct 27, 2019 11:38 pm

Maybe we could even get a December storm. Maybe? :)
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#1417 Postby Monsoonjr99 » Mon Oct 28, 2019 2:04 am

AnnularCane wrote:Maybe we could even get a December storm. Maybe? :)


With Melissa and Pablo showing this season's instability in the subtropics, along with above average SSTs, I would not be surprised if something significant spins up out there in December a la Epsilon.
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#1418 Postby galaxy401 » Mon Oct 28, 2019 2:27 am

Well we could get another storm in that same region of the Atlantic.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Oct 28 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:



A large non-tropical low pressure system located more than 400
miles west of the Azores is producing a broad area of gale-force
to hurricane-force winds. The low could gradually acquire
subtropical characteristics over the next few days while the
system moves slowly southward to southeastward over warmer water.
Environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for
development by Friday when the low is forecast to move back over
colder water. For more information, see High Seas Forecasts issued
by the NOAA National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#1419 Postby DioBrando » Thu Nov 14, 2019 1:00 pm

My hunch calls for a last-minute Sebastien even in December.
What are your thoughts?
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#1420 Postby EquusStorm » Sun Nov 17, 2019 12:08 pm

Since transition happened three times last month in a similar fashion, I am not taking my eyes off the gale sitting over the gulf stream...

Image

All we need is a little less shear where that eastern feature is going...

Image
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