2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
StruThiO
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 821
Age: 24
Joined: Fri Sep 15, 2017 5:51 am
Location: Currently Portland, OR. Raised in Jax, FL.

Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#1341 Postby StruThiO » Mon Sep 23, 2019 1:23 pm

Above Average is starting to look nearly guaranteed IMO..
4 likes   

User avatar
toad strangler
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4161
Joined: Sun Jul 28, 2013 3:09 pm
Location: Earth
Contact:

Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#1342 Postby toad strangler » Mon Sep 23, 2019 1:24 pm

StruThiO wrote:Above Average is starting to look nearly guaranteed IMO..


Signs of an epic W Caribbean October to boot
1 likes   

User avatar
CyclonicFury
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1970
Age: 25
Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 12:32 pm
Location: NC
Contact:

Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#1343 Postby CyclonicFury » Mon Sep 23, 2019 5:22 pm

StruThiO wrote:Above Average is starting to look nearly guaranteed IMO..

The NOAA definition of an above average season requires at least 111 ACE, with at least two of the parameters exceeded (12 NS, 6 H, and 2 MH). It's likely Lorenzo will become a major hurricane and we'll probably see at least 1 more named storm, so barring a very quiet October/November, we should reach this. There has not once been four consecutive above average seasons in the Atlantic basin by the NOAA definition, though 1998-2001 came extremely close. It's likely that the Atlantic has 15+ NS this season for the fourth straight year, something that also has never happened in the historical record. I think we have enough evidence now the Atlantic active era has not ended.
9 likes   
NCSU B.S. in Meteorology Class of 2021. Tropical weather blogger at http://www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.

User avatar
Steve
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8604
Joined: Sat Apr 05, 2003 11:41 pm
Location: Not a state-caster

Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#1344 Postby Steve » Mon Sep 23, 2019 5:39 pm

StruThiO wrote:Above Average is starting to look nearly guaranteed IMO..


It’s been an ongoing question in this thread the last month plus. While Dorian was coming into the picture we started wondering. That was going to be a big and important storm. Maybe we were setting up for at least an average season with a shot at more. As we have been looking at the season get to 60, 70 and now 80 ACE, the chances were going up that we might just get to above average. Looks like a no brainer call now. So you wonder how high can ACE get? 110? 120? 130? More? And were at 12 named storms. You know there will be at least 3-4 more. I don’t know where we will end up, but 2019 is already memorable and compares favorably to averages.
3 likes   

User avatar
AnnularCane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2621
Joined: Thu Jun 08, 2006 9:18 am
Location: Wytheville, VA

Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#1345 Postby AnnularCane » Mon Sep 23, 2019 5:53 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:
StruThiO wrote:Above Average is starting to look nearly guaranteed IMO..

The NOAA definition of an above average season requires at least 111 ACE, with at least two of the parameters exceeded (12 NS, 6 H, and 2 MH). It's likely Lorenzo will become a major hurricane and we'll probably see at least 1 more named storm, so barring a very quiet October/November, we should reach this. There has not once been four consecutive above average seasons in the Atlantic basin by the NOAA definition, though 1998-2001 came extremely close. It's likely that the Atlantic has 15+ NS this season for the fourth straight year, something that also has never happened in the historical record. I think we have enough evidence now the Atlantic active era has not ended.


Until next year, when the season cancel posts start up again. :wink: (Sorry, I couldn't resist.)
4 likes   

User avatar
StruThiO
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 821
Age: 24
Joined: Fri Sep 15, 2017 5:51 am
Location: Currently Portland, OR. Raised in Jax, FL.

Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#1346 Postby StruThiO » Tue Sep 24, 2019 2:54 pm

1 likes   

User avatar
galaxy401
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2297
Age: 28
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:04 pm
Location: Casa Grande, Arizona

Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#1347 Postby galaxy401 » Tue Sep 24, 2019 10:41 pm

Feels like recent hurricane seasons have been more loaded in September. It's seems obvious given that it is the most active month but the average hurricane season is more spread out in August and September. The last three Septembers had very high levels of activity.

2017: 4 named storms formed but that month saw two Category 5 and two other major hurricanes. ACE was record levels that September.

2018: 7 named storms formed this month. This came after a very quiet August.

2019: 7 named storms so far. This also came after a quiet August. Dorian became a Category 5 in September.
2 likes   
Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.

User avatar
CyclonicFury
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1970
Age: 25
Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 12:32 pm
Location: NC
Contact:

Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#1348 Postby CyclonicFury » Tue Sep 24, 2019 10:50 pm

galaxy401 wrote:Feels like recent hurricane seasons have been more loaded in September. It's seems obvious given that it is the most active month but the average hurricane season is more spread out in August and September. The last three Septembers had very high levels of activity.

2017: 4 named storms formed but that month saw two Category 5 and two other major hurricanes. ACE was record levels that September.

2018: 7 named storms formed this month. This came after a very quiet August.

2019: 7 named storms so far. This also came after a quiet August. Dorian became a Category 5 in September.

That's a contrast from 2012-2016, which saw very low ACE in September. Octobers have been mostly active this decade but not in the way of typical NW Caribbean hurricanes. I'm interested to see how active October is considering the MJO is likely to turn less favorable in the middle of the month.
2 likes   
NCSU B.S. in Meteorology Class of 2021. Tropical weather blogger at http://www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.

User avatar
CyclonicFury
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1970
Age: 25
Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 12:32 pm
Location: NC
Contact:

Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#1349 Postby CyclonicFury » Thu Sep 26, 2019 6:44 am

Lorenzo has become the third major hurricane of the season over the MDR. It is only the fourth MDR storm to reach major hurricane intensity since 2011, with the others being Danny, Irma and Maria.

It's a strong possibility the season could end with 4 or perhaps even 5 major hurricanes, though I would say 5 is unlikely. Above average ACE is nearly a lock IMO.
3 likes   
NCSU B.S. in Meteorology Class of 2021. Tropical weather blogger at http://www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 14933
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#1350 Postby NDG » Thu Sep 26, 2019 7:04 am

With Lorenzo forecasted to remain a MH through at least the next 4 days, it will be a nice ACE producer for the Atlantic, to bring it well over the 100th mark, not bad for the forecasted average to below average season by many experts at the beginning of the season. This decade has been mostly about many busted forecasts, including 2013.
8 likes   

User avatar
StruThiO
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 821
Age: 24
Joined: Fri Sep 15, 2017 5:51 am
Location: Currently Portland, OR. Raised in Jax, FL.

Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#1351 Postby StruThiO » Thu Sep 26, 2019 9:23 am

We are going to pass 90 ACE today. Lorenzo is forecast to remain a major hurricane for 4 more days. We should be well ahead the average in terms of major hurricane days. Looks like the AMO is still positive, to me
0 likes   

User avatar
StruThiO
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 821
Age: 24
Joined: Fri Sep 15, 2017 5:51 am
Location: Currently Portland, OR. Raised in Jax, FL.

Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#1352 Postby StruThiO » Thu Sep 26, 2019 9:52 am

0 likes   

User avatar
StruThiO
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 821
Age: 24
Joined: Fri Sep 15, 2017 5:51 am
Location: Currently Portland, OR. Raised in Jax, FL.

Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#1353 Postby StruThiO » Thu Sep 26, 2019 11:09 am

0 likes   

User avatar
StruThiO
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 821
Age: 24
Joined: Fri Sep 15, 2017 5:51 am
Location: Currently Portland, OR. Raised in Jax, FL.

Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#1354 Postby StruThiO » Thu Sep 26, 2019 7:25 pm

3 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23499
Age: 46
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#1355 Postby gatorcane » Thu Sep 26, 2019 8:50 pm

Dorian and Lorenzo are broke records this year but so far the CONUS has escaped. The big risk / question mark has always been October. Will we get that whopper storm that could threaten the CONUS? October is the month South Florida gets hit by TCs than any other month.
Last edited by gatorcane on Thu Sep 26, 2019 8:55 pm, edited 3 times in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
MetroMike
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 825
Joined: Sun Aug 29, 2004 8:13 pm
Location: Tampa Bay
Contact:

Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#1356 Postby MetroMike » Thu Sep 26, 2019 8:51 pm

Whatever forms near Africa should get the boot up poleward it would seem, so no worries about a long MDR trecker.
0 likes   

User avatar
StruThiO
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 821
Age: 24
Joined: Fri Sep 15, 2017 5:51 am
Location: Currently Portland, OR. Raised in Jax, FL.

Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#1357 Postby StruThiO » Fri Sep 27, 2019 1:14 am

Caribbean has been very very warm. I know it gets said every year, but I can't help but :eek: at the prospects of October development this yr

Image

Image

Image

:double: at the OHC

Image
1 likes   

User avatar
galaxy401
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2297
Age: 28
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:04 pm
Location: Casa Grande, Arizona

Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#1358 Postby galaxy401 » Fri Sep 27, 2019 1:27 am

Considering how often it's bought up that the West Caribbean is very hot, it's made more surprising how infrequent we seem to get hurricanes in that region especially in recent years. Most activity we see there are storms that form in that region and move into the Gulf of Mexico (such as Michael). The last time we got a strong hurricane in that area was Rina in 2011.

I'm guessing the El Nino cycle we have been in since 2014 has shutdown that region for development.
6 likes   
Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.

User avatar
StruThiO
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 821
Age: 24
Joined: Fri Sep 15, 2017 5:51 am
Location: Currently Portland, OR. Raised in Jax, FL.

Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#1359 Postby StruThiO » Fri Sep 27, 2019 1:31 am

galaxy401 wrote:I'm guessing the El Nino cycle we have been in since 2014 has shutdown that region for development.


The Pacific has definitely been broadly +PDO and +PMM since 2014. Perhaps that's contributing?
3 likes   

User avatar
toad strangler
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4161
Joined: Sun Jul 28, 2013 3:09 pm
Location: Earth
Contact:

Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#1360 Postby toad strangler » Fri Sep 27, 2019 6:47 am

StruThiO wrote:Caribbean has been very very warm. I know it gets said every year, but I can't help but :eek: at the prospects of October development this yr

https://i.imgur.com/2cE0Edf.png

https://i.imgur.com/LJrGu5d.png

https://i.imgur.com/VfoutpY.png

:double: at the OHC

https://i.imgur.com/weVmfFo.png



Suddath tweet is 10 days old but fits

 https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1174100655369281538


0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Chris90, Google Adsense [Bot], Hurricane2022, pepecool20 and 24 guests