2019 TCRs

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 33393
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: 2019 TCRs

#61 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Jan 30, 2020 5:50 pm

Confirming the $5 billion damage figure for Imelda. That would be the 2nd costliest tropical storm on record. Retirement case is legitimate...

Given the area of heavy rain on radar, I do wonder if a spot or two may have had 50 inches of rain that wasn't recorded?
1 likes   

User avatar
galaxy401
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2297
Age: 28
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:04 pm
Location: Casa Grande, Arizona

Re: 2019 TCRs: Tropical Storm Imelda report is up

#62 Postby galaxy401 » Fri Jan 31, 2020 1:50 pm

Octave is out. The East Pacific is complete.
3 likes   
Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.

User avatar
DioBrando
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 917
Age: 27
Joined: Sun Aug 12, 2018 12:45 pm

Re: 2019 TCRs

#63 Postby DioBrando » Sat Feb 01, 2020 10:19 pm

Of those remaining, what do you think the release order would be? (Doing this because someone forgot that Humberto even existed.)

Dorian
Humberto
Nestor
Olga
Pablo
Sebastien

I'd put it in this order:
Nestor (early February)
Olga (early February)
Sebastien (early February)
Pablo (late February)
Humberto (March)
Dorian (June)

Does anyone want to differ?
0 likes   
blonde stacey (xe/xem/xir)

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8030
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: 2019 TCRs

#64 Postby aspen » Sun Feb 02, 2020 10:35 am

DioBrando wrote:Of those remaining, what do you think the release order would be? (Doing this because someone forgot that Humberto even existed.)

Dorian
Humberto
Nestor
Olga
Pablo
Sebastien

I'd put it in this order:
Nestor (early February)
Olga (early February)
Sebastien (early February)
Pablo (late February)
Humberto (March)
Dorian (June)

Does anyone want to differ?

If I remember correctly, Michael’s TCR came out in April. I estimate Dorian’s will come out around the same time this year, perhaps a little later because of its much longer life history.
1 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

User avatar
galaxy401
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2297
Age: 28
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:04 pm
Location: Casa Grande, Arizona

Re: 2019 TCRs

#65 Postby galaxy401 » Sun Feb 02, 2020 11:34 am

I don’t think any report ever got published in June (though I think some did come out in May). I’m going bold and think Dorian will come out later this month.
1 likes   
Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.

Chris90
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 637
Age: 34
Joined: Thu Jun 01, 2017 9:36 pm

Re: 2019 TCRs

#66 Postby Chris90 » Sun Feb 02, 2020 12:49 pm

I just went back and looked, Irma was released on March 9th, and she was a long track Cape Verde with multiple landfalls, taking place during 2017 with all those other majors like Harvey and Maria. If Irma was released then, then galaxy401's bold call for later this month for Dorian might actually happen. Personally, I think it'll be around the Ides of March for Dorian's report, but definitely not June. I expect all reports will be released by early April at the latest.
2 likes   
Solar Aquarian
Lunar Cancerian
:uarrow: Sagittarian

User avatar
DioBrando
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 917
Age: 27
Joined: Sun Aug 12, 2018 12:45 pm

Re: 2019 TCRs

#67 Postby DioBrando » Sun Feb 02, 2020 3:32 pm

Chris90 wrote:I just went back and looked, Irma was released on March 9th, and she was a long track Cape Verde with multiple landfalls, taking place during 2017 with all those other majors like Harvey and Maria. If Irma was released then, then galaxy401's bold call for later this month for Dorian might actually happen. Personally, I think it'll be around the Ides of March for Dorian's report, but definitely not June. I expect all reports will be released by early April at the latest.

I can totally see that.
I think Dorian and Humberto are the last two to come out. Here's why:

Dorian - obvious reasons
Humberto - possible upgrade, weird nature

Imagine if Humberto gets upgraded to a cat 4
He'll join the likes of Debby, that other storm in 1981 and Diana
Totally born in the wrong generation!
1 likes   
blonde stacey (xe/xem/xir)

BadLarry95
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 94
Joined: Thu Apr 28, 2016 9:40 pm

Re: 2019 TCRs

#68 Postby BadLarry95 » Wed Feb 05, 2020 6:29 pm

Sebastian is out
1 likes   

User avatar
galaxy401
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2297
Age: 28
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:04 pm
Location: Casa Grande, Arizona

Re: 2019 TCRs

#69 Postby galaxy401 » Wed Feb 05, 2020 9:35 pm

There's a detailed section on the difficulties of the NHC in forecasting Sebastian due to speed and if it would get absorbed by the front.
0 likes   
Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.

User avatar
galaxy401
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2297
Age: 28
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:04 pm
Location: Casa Grande, Arizona

Re: 2019 TCRs

#70 Postby galaxy401 » Tue Feb 18, 2020 2:19 pm

Hurricane Pablo has been released. It first became a Subtropical storm before turning Tropical (never was a STS originally).

Imelda also got an update.
3 likes   
Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.

User avatar
DioBrando
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 917
Age: 27
Joined: Sun Aug 12, 2018 12:45 pm

Re: 2019 TCRs

#71 Postby DioBrando » Wed Feb 19, 2020 2:43 pm

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL092019_Humberto.pdf

A fat 44 page report waitin' for you.
3 likes   
blonde stacey (xe/xem/xir)

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 33393
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: 2019 TCRs

#72 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Feb 19, 2020 2:55 pm

Humberto was definitely an interesting storm in how it held its intensity while transitioning to extratropical.

The dropsonde of 114 kt should definitely be discarded as it was seen as a gust - and in a transitioning storm, that would only support an intensity of 85-90 kt on its own. The SFMR of 113 kt does lend some support to category 4 intensity, but in the absence of other data, that could be questionable. If we had satellite images from Hurricane Hazel in 1954, that may have been able to help, but of course we never will. It's clear that baroclinic forcing was a key element of the winds - Bermuda barely saw any rain yet still had category 2 wind conditions.
2 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 33393
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: 2019 TCRs

#73 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Feb 19, 2020 3:02 pm

Only three remain. Dorian has the most information, while Nestor and Olga likely have significant track, status and intensity adjustments (particularly in terms of storm structures) that likely will bring significant in-house debates.
2 likes   

User avatar
DioBrando
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 917
Age: 27
Joined: Sun Aug 12, 2018 12:45 pm

Re: 2019 TCRs

#74 Postby DioBrando » Wed Feb 19, 2020 3:08 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Humberto was definitely an interesting storm in how it held its intensity while transitioning to extratropical.

The dropsonde of 114 kt should definitely be discarded as it was seen as a gust - and in a transitioning storm, that would only support an intensity of 85-90 kt on its own. The SFMR of 113 kt does lend some support to category 4 intensity, but in the absence of other data, that could be questionable. If we had satellite images from Hurricane Hazel in 1954, that may have been able to help, but of course we never will. It's clear that baroclinic forcing was a key element of the winds - Bermuda barely saw any rain yet still had category 2 wind conditions.

What storms would you say are comparable with humberto? Or is he one of a kind? Because it looks like the authorities took ages to do his report... I'm actually quite surprised he didn't get an upgrade.
0 likes   
blonde stacey (xe/xem/xir)

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 33393
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: 2019 TCRs

#75 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Feb 20, 2020 4:13 pm

DioBrando wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:Humberto was definitely an interesting storm in how it held its intensity while transitioning to extratropical.

The dropsonde of 114 kt should definitely be discarded as it was seen as a gust - and in a transitioning storm, that would only support an intensity of 85-90 kt on its own. The SFMR of 113 kt does lend some support to category 4 intensity, but in the absence of other data, that could be questionable. If we had satellite images from Hurricane Hazel in 1954, that may have been able to help, but of course we never will. It's clear that baroclinic forcing was a key element of the winds - Bermuda barely saw any rain yet still had category 2 wind conditions.

What storms would you say are comparable with humberto? Or is he one of a kind? Because it looks like the authorities took ages to do his report... I'm actually quite surprised he didn't get an upgrade.


In the satellite era, I can't think of any that had Recon in the ET transition phase that still had bona fide major hurricane winds. Hazel 1954 seems fairly similar, but there was no satellite then to confirm its structure.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2019 TCRs: Tropical Storm Nestor is up

#76 Postby cycloneye » Mon Mar 02, 2020 12:57 pm

1 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 33393
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: 2019 TCRs

#77 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Mar 16, 2020 10:29 pm

Is the NHC still operating (in off-season mode) due to COVID-19? Or have they suspended things like report writing and planning too?
2 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22473
Age: 66
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: 2019 TCRs

#78 Postby wxman57 » Tue Mar 17, 2020 9:58 am

Word from a friend at the NHC is that the Dorian report is just about done. However, the virus may delay the release until April.
6 likes   

ncforecaster89
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 219
Age: 53
Joined: Sat Oct 20, 2018 12:32 pm
Contact:

Re: 2019 TCRs

#79 Postby ncforecaster89 » Tue Mar 17, 2020 9:34 pm

wxman57 wrote:Word from a friend at the NHC is that the Dorian report is just about done. However, the virus may delay the release until April.


Did they allude to any adjustments to the operational intensity estimate, by chance?
1 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22473
Age: 66
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: 2019 TCRs

#80 Postby wxman57 » Wed Mar 18, 2020 4:10 am

ncforecaster89 wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Word from a friend at the NHC is that the Dorian report is just about done. However, the virus may delay the release until April.


Did they allude to any adjustments to the operational intensity estimate, by chance?


No, and I didn't ask.
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Blown Away, duilaslol and 61 guests