2020 WPAC Season

[cycloneye]

INVEST 95W is up

[cycloneye]

INVEST 96W is up

[aspen]

The GFS develops a TC just east of the Philippines by late Monday/early Tuesday, and has it become a 950-960 mbar typhoon in the following days before striking Luzon. The Euro also develops it and takes it on a similar path, but keeps it extremely tiny.

EDIT: the CMC and ICON models also pick up on it. The GFS started getting aggressive with this system early yesterday, and each run has been pushing it formation further from the Philippines, giving it more time over open water.

[Hayabusa]

Vongfong

First TD that is also the first named storm of the year

[1900hurricane]

With Vongfong, the WPac has now generated >1 unit of ACE in the month of May for the first time since 2015. This ends the longest stretch the WPac has gone without that much ACE in May since JTWC records began in 1945.

[dexterlabio]

Per the models, a reverse oriented monsoon trough could set up next week and perhaps also bring about the onset of the southwest (Indian) monsoon in SE Asian region. Watch out for those west-to-east-moving little buggers that might be classified as weak TC's.

[Hayabusa]

Per the models, a reverse oriented monsoon trough could set up next week and perhaps also bring about the onset of the southwest (Indian) monsoon in SE Asian region. Watch out for those west-to-east-moving little buggers that might be classified as weak TC's.

I hate those kind of setups, producing low quality TCs

[1900hurricane]

Looks more like a Mei-yu setup ('tis the season), which looks similar but is further north and has more mid-latitude origins than a monsoon trough would be. Mei-yu is usually a strong TC deterrent, although one will occasionally spawn with the front itself.

[dexterlabio]

Looks more like a Mei-yu setup ('tis the season), which looks similar but is further north and has more mid-latitude origins than a monsoon trough would be. Mei-yu is usually a strong TC deterrent, although one will occasionally spawn with the front itself.

https://i.imgur.com/fyIb5x1.gif

I find this setup interesting because it is rare to see a TC spawned in the SCS then track eastward/northeastward. If I'm not mistaken it's been years since we saw one (Chan-hom in 2009). It's even more uncommon to see a TC spawned in this setup that makes it into typhoon strength, perhaps except 2009 Chan-hom again.

[Hayabusa]

[cycloneye]

TSR first forecast: 26/15/8



https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/ ... ay2020.pdf

[euro6208]

Looking like a possible La Nina will put a damper to this season. 55% chance of a below average season.

I am glad to be back after a long hiatus. Thank you!

Who's ready for another incredible season?

[mrbagyo]

[euro6208]

Pretty dead out there.

[euro6208]

https://i.imgur.com/G38Y9sx.gif

That surface trough brought over 2 inches of rain to Guam today. Miss those rains!

[Hayabusa]

Ooooh!?!

[mrbagyo]

There's a naked rotation near 15N 131E. hmmm, no guidance support

[mrbagyo]

There's a naked rotation near 15N 131E. hmmm, no guidance support
https://i.imgur.com/sMFPe8B.gif

stayin alive though future is bleak due to dry air

[doomhaMwx]

 https://twitter.com/RobertSpetaWX/status/1267663405458087941

[euro6208]

Now this is great news. Guam radar has been a pain up and down during the past several years. Hope it stays up for good!