Next cat 5 hurricane landfall on Mexico

[Astromanía]

I wonder when will be the next cat 5 hurricane landfall on Mexico since the last one was in 2007 (12 years ago), normally that event take place one time every one or two decades and since the last one didn't have one, I think in the next few years it will occur the next one, most probably in Quintana Roo where cat 5 hurricanes often make landfall on Mexico. Overall the last decade was so quiet for Mexico with only one major hurricane that made lanfall in 2010. I made a list about the last hurricanes that made landfall on Mexico from the ATL basin in each category on the saffir-simpson scale:
Last landfalling tropical storm: Fernand 2019
Last landfalling cat. 1 hurricane: Katia 2017
Last landfalling cat. 2 hurricane: Ernesto 2012
Last landfalling cat 3 hurricane: Karl 2010
Last landfalling cat 4 hurricane: Wilma 2005
Last landfalling cat 5 hurricane: Dean 2007

I think the reasom why we didn't saw a category 5 landfalling hurricane in Mexico this last decade its due to the low activity and hostil enviroment we had in the caribbean sea, and that is usually the place where category 5 hurricanes make landfall on Mexico. EPAC basin is another history, even tho we haven't seen a hurricane making landfall at category 5 (possible IMO, but extremaly rare), cat 4 and 3 landfalling hurricanes are very common, especially this last decade, this is due to the fact that Mexico is the only country that is almost always afffected by systems from the Epac every year because of the small area this basin had overall and the very hot waters near the coast of Mexio all year. I made the same list for the storms that affected Mexico from Epac and this is what we had:
Last landfalling tropical storm: Peiscilla 2019
Last landfalling cat 1 hurricane: Lorena 2019
Last landfalling cat 2 hurricane: Carlotta 2012
Last landfalling cat 3 hurricane: Willa 2018
Last landfalling cat 4 hurricane: Patricia 2015
Last landfalling cat 5 hurricane: no one

So from the Epac this last decade Mexico had systems making landfall at every category (exept cat 5) on saffir-simpson scale compared with the Atl basin. We have had even multiple major landfalling hurricanes from Epac (Odile, Patricia and Willa) compared to the Atl (Karl). In conclusion Mexico is affected like 3 times more due ti systems from the Epac than from the Atl, but since we haven't seen a hurricane making landfall at cat 5 in Mexico from Epac we should expect that to happen from Atl basin, and it's about time that happen again. I expect the same amount of major making landfall from both basin this next decade 1 from ATL and 3 from Epac with the one from Atl being the cat 5, but the amount can change and this is only my opinion, the difference between landfalling minor hurricanes and tropical storms in Mexico from both basins is even more evident. Anyway we have to be prepared for the next uncoming landfalling systems on Mexico this new decade not matter the intensity or the basin.

[Kingarabian]

I wonder when will be the next cat 5 hurricane landfall on Mexico since the last one was in 2007 (12 years ago), normally that event take place one time every one or two decades and since the last one didn't have one, I think in the next few years it will occur the next one, most probably in Quintana Roo where cat 5 hurricanes often make landfall on Mexico. Overall the last decade was so quiet for Mexico with only one major hurricane that made lanfall in 2010. I made a list about the last hurricanes that made landfall on Mexico from the ATL basin in each category on the saffir-simpson scale:
Last landfalling tropical storm: Fernand 2019
Last landfalling cat. 1 hurricane: Katia 2017
Last landfalling cat. 2 hurricane: Ernesto 2012
Last landfalling cat 3 hurricane: Karl 2010
Last landfalling cat 4 hurricane: Wilma 2005
Last landfalling cat 5 hurricane: Dean 2007

I think the reasom why we didn't saw a category 5 landfalling hurricane in Mexico this last decade its due to the low activity and hostil enviroment we had in the caribbean sea, and that is usually the place where category 5 hurricanes make landfall on Mexico. EPAC basin is another history, even tho we haven't seen a hurricane making landfall at category 5 (possible IMO, but extremaly rare), cat 4 and 3 landfalling hurricanes are very common, especially this last decade, this is due to the fact that Mexico is the only country that is almost always afffected by systems from the Epac every year because of the small area this basin had overall and the very hot waters near the coast of Mexio all year. I made the same list for the storms that affected Mexico from Epac and this is what we had:
Last landfalling tropical storm: Peiscilla 2019
Last landfalling cat 1 hurricane: Lorena 2019
Last landfalling cat 2 hurricane: Carlotta 2012
Last landfalling cat 3 hurricane: Willa 2018
Last landfalling cat 4 hurricane: Patricia 2015
Last landfalling cat 5 hurricane: no one

So from the Epac this last decade Mexico had systems making landfall at every category (exept cat 5) on saffir-simpson scale compared with the Atl basin. We have had even multiple major landfalling hurricanes from Epac (Odile, Patricia and Willa) compared to the Atl (Karl). In conclusion Mexico is affected like 3 times more due ti systems from the Epac than from the Atl, but since we haven't seen a hurricane making landfall at cat 5 in Mexico from Epac we should expect that to happen from Atl basin, and it's about time that happen again. I expect the same amount of major making landfall from both basin this next decade 1 from ATL and 3 from Epac with the one from Atl being the cat 5, but the amount can change and this is only my opinion, the difference between landfalling minor hurricanes and tropical storms in Mexico from both basins is even more evident. Anyway we have to be prepared for the next uncoming landfalling systems on Mexico this new decade not matter the intensity or the basin.

Next strong/moderate Nino

[Astromanía]

I wonder when will be the next cat 5 hurricane landfall on Mexico since the last one was in 2007 (12 years ago), normally that event take place one time every one or two decades and since the last one didn't have one, I think in the next few years it will occur the next one, most probably in Quintana Roo where cat 5 hurricanes often make landfall on Mexico. Overall the last decade was so quiet for Mexico with only one major hurricane that made lanfall in 2010. I made a list about the last hurricanes that made landfall on Mexico from the ATL basin in each category on the saffir-simpson scale:
Last landfalling tropical storm: Fernand 2019
Last landfalling cat. 1 hurricane: Katia 2017
Last landfalling cat. 2 hurricane: Ernesto 2012
Last landfalling cat 3 hurricane: Karl 2010
Last landfalling cat 4 hurricane: Wilma 2005
Last landfalling cat 5 hurricane: Dean 2007

I think the reasom why we didn't saw a category 5 landfalling hurricane in Mexico this last decade its due to the low activity and hostil enviroment we had in the caribbean sea, and that is usually the place where category 5 hurricanes make landfall on Mexico. EPAC basin is another history, even tho we haven't seen a hurricane making landfall at category 5 (possible IMO, but extremaly rare), cat 4 and 3 landfalling hurricanes are very common, especially this last decade, this is due to the fact that Mexico is the only country that is almost always afffected by systems from the Epac every year because of the small area this basin had overall and the very hot waters near the coast of Mexio all year. I made the same list for the storms that affected Mexico from Epac and this is what we had:
Last landfalling tropical storm: Peiscilla 2019
Last landfalling cat 1 hurricane: Lorena 2019
Last landfalling cat 2 hurricane: Carlotta 2012
Last landfalling cat 3 hurricane: Willa 2018
Last landfalling cat 4 hurricane: Patricia 2015
Last landfalling cat 5 hurricane: no one

So from the Epac this last decade Mexico had systems making landfall at every category (exept cat 5) on saffir-simpson scale compared with the Atl basin. We have had even multiple major landfalling hurricanes from Epac (Odile, Patricia and Willa) compared to the Atl (Karl). In conclusion Mexico is affected like 3 times more due ti systems from the Epac than from the Atl, but since we haven't seen a hurricane making landfall at cat 5 in Mexico from Epac we should expect that to happen from Atl basin, and it's about time that happen again. I expect the same amount of major making landfall from both basin this next decade 1 from ATL and 3 from Epac with the one from Atl being the cat 5, but the amount can change and this is only my opinion, the difference between landfalling minor hurricanes and tropical storms in Mexico from both basins is even more evident. Anyway we have to be prepared for the next uncoming landfalling systems on Mexico this new decade not matter the intensity or the basin.

Next strong/moderate Nino

I wonder if we are going to another El Niño starting this summer, it's still very unclear what will happen after spring, if la Niña develops Mexico needs to watch the ATL basin, especially if Caribbean sea is active. If el Niño develops, Mexico needs to watch the pacific closely. I think the best place where a category 5 hurricane in EPAC basin can make a landfall at that intensity is Sinaloa satate, because mountains are not that near to the coast compared to other states and waters are to hot so land interaction won't be a big problem, a textbook category 5 hurricane in October could have a chance there. For the ATL basin as I said Quintana Roo is the bullet for a strong category 5 cape verde hurricane that enters the caribean sea and makes landfall in yucatan penninsula (it has happened many times before) proceding to enters the gulf of Mexico and making a final landfall in NE Mexico. The other state in ATL basin with a potentially landfall from a hurricane at category 5 is Tamaulipas, for a system formed in the gulf as Anita or a system that previously made landfall in yucatan and then entered the gulf of Mexico strengthening again after some weakening

[Kingarabian]

I wonder when will be the next cat 5 hurricane landfall on Mexico since the last one was in 2007 (12 years ago), normally that event take place one time every one or two decades and since the last one didn't have one, I think in the next few years it will occur the next one, most probably in Quintana Roo where cat 5 hurricanes often make landfall on Mexico. Overall the last decade was so quiet for Mexico with only one major hurricane that made lanfall in 2010. I made a list about the last hurricanes that made landfall on Mexico from the ATL basin in each category on the saffir-simpson scale:
Last landfalling tropical storm: Fernand 2019
Last landfalling cat. 1 hurricane: Katia 2017
Last landfalling cat. 2 hurricane: Ernesto 2012
Last landfalling cat 3 hurricane: Karl 2010
Last landfalling cat 4 hurricane: Wilma 2005
Last landfalling cat 5 hurricane: Dean 2007

I think the reasom why we didn't saw a category 5 landfalling hurricane in Mexico this last decade its due to the low activity and hostil enviroment we had in the caribbean sea, and that is usually the place where category 5 hurricanes make landfall on Mexico. EPAC basin is another history, even tho we haven't seen a hurricane making landfall at category 5 (possible IMO, but extremaly rare), cat 4 and 3 landfalling hurricanes are very common, especially this last decade, this is due to the fact that Mexico is the only country that is almost always afffected by systems from the Epac every year because of the small area this basin had overall and the very hot waters near the coast of Mexio all year. I made the same list for the storms that affected Mexico from Epac and this is what we had:
Last landfalling tropical storm: Peiscilla 2019
Last landfalling cat 1 hurricane: Lorena 2019
Last landfalling cat 2 hurricane: Carlotta 2012
Last landfalling cat 3 hurricane: Willa 2018
Last landfalling cat 4 hurricane: Patricia 2015
Last landfalling cat 5 hurricane: no one

So from the Epac this last decade Mexico had systems making landfall at every category (exept cat 5) on saffir-simpson scale compared with the Atl basin. We have had even multiple major landfalling hurricanes from Epac (Odile, Patricia and Willa) compared to the Atl (Karl). In conclusion Mexico is affected like 3 times more due ti systems from the Epac than from the Atl, but since we haven't seen a hurricane making landfall at cat 5 in Mexico from Epac we should expect that to happen from Atl basin, and it's about time that happen again. I expect the same amount of major making landfall from both basin this next decade 1 from ATL and 3 from Epac with the one from Atl being the cat 5, but the amount can change and this is only my opinion, the difference between landfalling minor hurricanes and tropical storms in Mexico from both basins is even more evident. Anyway we have to be prepared for the next uncoming landfalling systems on Mexico this new decade not matter the intensity or the basin.

Next strong/moderate Nino

I wonder if we are going to another El Niño starting this summer, it's still very unclear what will happen after spring, if la Niña develops Mexico needs to watch the ATL basin, especially if Caribbean sea is active. If el Niño develops, Mexico needs to watch the pacific closely. I think the best place where a category 5 hurricane in EPAC basin can make a landfall at that intensity is Sinaloa satate, because mountains are not that near to the coast compared to other states and waters are to hot so land interaction won't be a big problem, a textbook category 5 hurricane in October could have a chance there. For the ATL basin as I said Quintana Roo is the bullet for a strong category 5 cape verde hurricane that enters the caribean sea and makes landfall in yucatan penninsula (it has happened many times before) proceding to enters the gulf of Mexico and making a final landfall in NE Mexico. The other state in ATL basin with a potentially landfall from a hurricane at category 5 is Tamaulipas, for a system formed in the gulf as Anita or a system that previously made landfall in yucatan and then entered the gulf of Mexico strengthening again after some weakening

Good points. But I feel like Pacific hurricanes bring the most damage to Mexico.

Hurricane Patricia and Hurricane Rick were the #1 and #3 storms on record in the EPAC. Both occurred in moderate/strong El Nino years. Both systems were very intense, with winds exceeding Cat.5 thresholds but fortunately weakened before affecting Mexico off the Pacific coast because of shear. So it's certainly possible for a Cat.5 to someday make landfall over Mexico. Comes down to shear timing and ERC timing. That's what saved Mexico from Patricia in the last minute.

[Astromanía]

Next strong/moderate Nino

I wonder if we are going to another El Niño starting this summer, it's still very unclear what will happen after spring, if la Niña develops Mexico needs to watch the ATL basin, especially if Caribbean sea is active. If el Niño develops, Mexico needs to watch the pacific closely. I think the best place where a category 5 hurricane in EPAC basin can make a landfall at that intensity is Sinaloa satate, because mountains are not that near to the coast compared to other states and waters are to hot so land interaction won't be a big problem, a textbook category 5 hurricane in October could have a chance there. For the ATL basin as I said Quintana Roo is the bullet for a strong category 5 cape verde hurricane that enters the caribean sea and makes landfall in yucatan penninsula (it has happened many times before) proceding to enters the gulf of Mexico and making a final landfall in NE Mexico. The other state in ATL basin with a potentially landfall from a hurricane at category 5 is Tamaulipas, for a system formed in the gulf as Anita or a system that previously made landfall in yucatan and then entered the gulf of Mexico strengthening again after some weakening

Good points. But I feel like Pacific hurricanes bring the most damage to Mexico.

Hurricane Patricia and Hurricane Rick were the #1 and #3 storms on record in the EPAC. Both occurred in moderate/strong El Nino years. Both systems were very intense, with winds exceeding Cat.5 thresholds but fortunately weakened before affecting Mexico off the Pacific coast because of shear. So it's certainly possible for a Cat.5 to someday make landfall over Mexico. Comes down to shear timing and ERC timing. That's what saved Mexico from Patricia in the last minute.

Yep, we need a textbook category 5 in the EPAC at the right time, where shear doesn´t increase and there is not EWRC near the coast for a hurricane to make a landfall at that intensity, maybe it's not that uncommon as I tought but yeah it's way more probable to have a major landfall in Mexico from the Epac than ATL and right now how the water temperatures anomalies are turning in the el niño regions, we need to monitorate the pacific coast very closely this next season due to a possibility of a new developing el niño, unless something happens and la niña develops...

[Astromanía]

I mean even when category 5 hurricanes are not common in EPAC this last decade we had 6! (Celia, Marie, Patricia, Lane, Walaka and Willa) with three of them treatening land at any intensity (Patricia and Willa making landfall on Mexico and Lane coming close to Hawaii) something that tells me waters are getting hotter with time and hence stronger hurricanes with less time apart from each other

[Astromanía]

After reading the last forecast for the next Atlantic Hurricane season, I'm afraid this could be the year for the next cat 5 landfall on México, or at least a major landfall on México from an Atlantic system after 10 years, the states of Quintana Roo, Tamaulipas, Veracruz and Yucatán need to watch the activity on ATL closely. I need to watch the Atlantic closely this year for a potential system that could leave a great amount of water in my city causing tremendous flooding after just a year from Fernand

[Astromanía]

This might be the year since 2007

[Astromanía]

After 16 years, a cat 5 hurricane made landfall on Mexico again but it wasn't from the ATL it was from EPAC, now Mexico have experienced cat 5 landfalls from both oceans since recordings began, something it doesn't happen in other places