2020 Atlantic Post-Season Changes

[ElectricStorm]

There have been several storms this season that could receive upgrades in the off-season. Here's what I think:

Hanna: It RI'd up until landfall so I guess there's a chance it could have been a 85kt Cat 2, but I would leave it at 80kts.

TD10: Could be upgraded to a TS

Laura: Could be upgraded to a Cat 5 but I don't think it will (or should honestly). I do think peak will be raised to 135kts.

Nana: Operationally a Cat 1 hurricane but I don't really think it was. Not sure how the NHC would feel about a downgrade, especially one that landfalled at peak. I would go with a 60kt TS.

Paulette: Peak could be raised to 95kts but I don't think I was a major.

Sally: Probably should be upgraded to 100kt Cat 3.

Alpha: Formed earlier than operational and could have been a tad stronger.

Gamma: Should be upgraded to a Cat 1.

Zeta: Should be upgraded to a Cat 3.

Thoughts?

[Ryxn]

I think there was even some talk of Gonzalo possibly getting an upgrade too maybe realistically just to 70 mph as there was a ragged eye at one point.

[supercane4867]

Zeta and Gamma are the only systems that highly deserved an upgrade.

[Ryxn]

I've mentioned this before but if Zeta is upgraded, it would make 2020 the ONLY season to have THREE major hurricanes form after September 30. Even without an upgraded, we could grab that title with potential Major Eta.

[BadLarry95]

I've mentioned this before but if Zeta is upgraded, it would make 2020 the ONLY season to have THREE major hurricanes form after September 30. Even without an upgraded, we could grab that title with potential Major Eta.

Didn’t Matthew, Nicole, and Otto do it in 2016?

[Ryxn]

I've mentioned this before but if Zeta is upgraded, it would make 2020 the ONLY season to have THREE major hurricanes form after September 30. Even without an upgraded, we could grab that title with potential Major Eta.

Didn’t Matthew, Nicole, and Otto do it in 2016?

I also talked about 2016. Matthew became a major hurricane on September 30 so it doesn't count as an October major hurricane formation.

[Ryxn]

I've mentioned this before but if Zeta is upgraded, it would make 2020 the ONLY season to have THREE major hurricanes form after September 30. Even without an upgraded, we could grab that title with potential Major Eta.

Didn’t Matthew, Nicole, and Otto do it in 2016?

Although, I guess if you could count Matthew re-strengthening to a Category 3 near the Bahamas as a major hurricane "formation" in October, then 2016 takes the cake. 2020 could surpass 3 anyways if Zeta gets an upgrade and Eta attains major status.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Zeta was almost certainly a major hurricane at landfall, IMO. 130mph+ wind gusts recorded over Port Fourchon, LA, dropsonde gusts >115 knots, flight level winds of >115 knots, radar data of >100 knots, plus whatever data comes out. SFMR at one point even had 105 knot winds, but they were flagged. I'm sure the NHC will review all that data, including the suspect SFMR readings, and make their judgement accordingly, but I strongly believe this was a major hurricane.

[Ryxn]

Then that's 5 majors for 2020. I am thinking a total of 7 for the season, tying 2005. Also thinking the hurricane total will be 15, also tying 2005, with 3 more forming and Gamma getting an upgrade.

[ElectricStorm]

Zeta was almost certainly a major hurricane at landfall, IMO. 130mph+ wind gusts recorded over Port Fourchon, LA, dropsonde gusts >115 knots, flight level winds of >115 knots, radar data of >100 knots, plus whatever data comes out. SFMR at one point even had 105 knot winds, but they were flagged. I'm sure the NHC will review all that data, including the suspect SFMR readings, and make their judgement accordingly, but I strongly believe this was a major hurricane.

Gamma and Zeta are locks for upgrades in my book. Sally and TD 10 are possibilities. I don't really see anything else being upgraded besides small tweaks in windspeed here and there, but no category changes. I wouldn't be shocked to see Nana downgraded but I doubt they do it

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Zeta was almost certainly a major hurricane at landfall, IMO. 130mph+ wind gusts recorded over Port Fourchon, LA, dropsonde gusts >115 knots, flight level winds of >115 knots, radar data of >100 knots, plus whatever data comes out. SFMR at one point even had 105 knot winds, but they were flagged. I'm sure the NHC will review all that data, including the suspect SFMR readings, and make their judgement accordingly, but I strongly believe this was a major hurricane.

Gamma and Zeta are locks for upgrades in my book. Sally and TD 10 are possibilities. I don't really see anything else being upgraded besides small tweaks in windspeed here and there, but no category changes. I wouldn't be shocked to see Nana downgraded but I doubt they do it

Sally seems unlikely, there's very little evidence when compared to Zeta.

Gamma, maybe. I've never seen then upgrade a tropical depression post-season though.

[aspen]

I think a bunch of storms could have at least some track and intensity adjustments in post-season analysis.
—Dolly: earlier genesis, peaked raised to 45-60 kt
—Edouard: earlier genesis
—Gonzalo: earlier genesis, peak raised to 60-65 kt
—Laura: peak raised to 135 kt (blend of FL/SFMR) and 936 mbar (landfall pressure recorded by Mark Sudduth)
—Nana: earlier genesis, peak lowered to 60 kt
—Omar: earlier genesis
—Paulette: peak raised to 95-100 kt
—Sally: peak raised to 95-100 kt
—Teddy: second peak lowered
—Alpha: earlier genesis, peak raised to 50-55 kt
—Gamma: peak raised to 65-70 kt
—Delta: peak lowered to 120 kt, intensity between pinhole and Yucatán is lowered
—Epsilon: intensity leading up to recon is raised, along with intensity prior to passing over the buoy that recorded 958 mbar
—Zeta: peak raised to 100 kt

[ElectricStorm]

I think a bunch of storms could have at least some track and intensity adjustments in post-season analysis.
—Dolly: earlier genesis, peaked raised to 45-60 kt
—Edouard: earlier genesis
—Gonzalo: earlier genesis, peak raised to 60-65 kt
—Laura: peak raised to 135 kt (blend of FL/SFMR) and 936 mbar (landfall pressure recorded by Mark Sudduth)
—Nana: earlier genesis, peak lowered to 60 kt
—Omar: earlier genesis
—Paulette: peak raised to 95-100 kt
—Sally: peak raised to 95-100 kt
—Teddy: second peak lowered
—Alpha: earlier genesis, peak raised to 50-55 kt
—Gamma: peak raised to 65-70 kt
—Delta: peak lowered to 120 kt, intensity between pinhole and Yucatán is lowered
—Epsilon: intensity leading up to recon is raised, along with intensity prior to passing over the buoy that recorded 958 mbar
—Zeta: peak raised to 100 kt

Most of these seem reasonable, although I highly doubt Paulette gets upgraded to a major

[MarioProtVI]

Gamma and Zeta definitely seem like a lock for upgrades. As for Nana it’s highly unlikely the NHC downgrades it (they’ve never done a full category downgrade). They will probably come up with some evidence to support it. FL winds are what is probably gonna keep it bc the NHC will probably count the low SFMRs as due to shoaling (something Zeta seemed to have for a while before some of them bounced back).

[CrazyC83]

How I would set them:

* Cristobal - no significant changes

* Dolly - earlier genesis, peak intensity increased to 50 kt

* Edouard - earlier genesis

* Fay - much earlier genesis, TC in Gulf before Florida then broken track; no change off east coast

* Gonzalo - earlier genesis, peak intensity increased to 60 kt

* Hanna - no significant changes

* Isaias - peak/landfall intensity increased to 80 kt with 985 mb pressure

* Josephine - no significant changes

* Kyle - no significant changes

* Laura - peak/landfall intensity increased to 135 kt with 936 mb pressure; some changes in Caribbean

* Marco - earlier decay, remnant low at US landfall (remove one)

* Nana - earlier genesis, peak intensity decreased to 60 kt

* Omar - no significant changes

* Paulette - peak intensity increased to 95 kt with 952 mb pressure

* Rene - no significant changes

* Sally - earlier genesis, Florida landfall at tropical storm, peak/landfall intensity increased to 95 kt with 966 mb pressure

* Teddy - no significant changes

* Vicky - no significant changes

* Wilfred - no significant changes

* Alpha - much earlier genesis, status changed to tropical, peak intensity increased to 50 kt with 993 mb pressure

* Beta - no significant changes

* Gamma - peak/landfall intensity increased to 65 kt with 980 mb pressure

* Delta - peak intensity in W Caribbean decreased to 120 kt; some minor changes elsewhere

* Epsilon - peak intensity kept at 100 kt but pre-Recon and pre-buoy intensities increased

* Zeta - some minor changes, but I'm not entirely sold on a landfall intensity of 100 kt yet.

[CyclonicFury]

I'm not convinced NHC will downgrade Nana, even though its upgrade was very borderline to begin with. I don't ever recall NHC downgrading a hurricane to a tropical storm.

[CrazyC83]

I'm not convinced NHC will downgrade Nana, even though its upgrade was very borderline to begin with. I don't ever recall NHC downgrading a hurricane to a tropical storm.

I'm not aware of any storm ever getting a post-season downgrade, but if any deserve it that would be Nana.

[TheStormExpert]

I'm not convinced NHC will downgrade Nana, even though its upgrade was very borderline to begin with. I don't ever recall NHC downgrading a hurricane to a tropical storm.

I'm not aware of any storm ever getting a post-season downgrade, but if any deserve it that would be Nana.

I definitely agree that Nana would be worthy of a downgrade. It’s pressure of 994mb doesn’t support hurricane intensity, nor did it look like one.

[Ryxn]

So what is the probability you would say that Zeta gets an upgrade to major status?

[Shell Mound]

Marco: 65 → 60 kt
Nana: 65 → 55 kt
Sally: 90 → 95 kt
Teddy: 120 → 115 kt
Gamma: 60 → 75 kt
Delta: 125 → 115 kt
Epsilon: 100 → 105 kt

No other changes to the remaining systems