2021 WPAC Season

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Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#241 Postby Hayabusa » Sat Jun 05, 2021 2:56 am

Latest model run has agreement that something would form.
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#242 Postby Hayabusa » Sat Jun 05, 2021 3:07 am

Looks like the cloud clusters are already there for our near future invest.
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#243 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Jun 09, 2021 1:28 pm

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Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#244 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Jun 09, 2021 11:07 pm

This guy in the SCS should be an invest.

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Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#245 Postby mrbagyo » Wed Jun 09, 2021 11:36 pm

1900hurricane wrote:This guy in the SCS should be an invest.

https://i.imgur.com/abPyjzP.gif


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Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#246 Postby doomhaMwx » Tue Jul 06, 2021 7:54 pm

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Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#247 Postby Hayabusa » Thu Jul 08, 2021 6:43 am

:uarrow: Because ever since Surigae the GFS has been casually producing intense model storms that never come to fruition :lol:
But anyway TSR updated its forecast they maintain their initial prediction, around 265 ACE (270 was the initial)

Link: https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/ ... ly2021.pdf

TSR maintains its extended-range forecast and predicts Northwest Pacific typhoon activity
in 2021 will be 10% below the long-term norm and close to the 2011-2020 norm.
This outlook is predicated on our expectation that a weak La Niña will
develop during autumn 2021.


Just because it's predicting a below average season, that type of season can also produce one of the most intense TCs, just recently 2020 a below average season but it produced 170 knots Goni. Would Surigae remain as the most intense TC worldwide this year? Or another typhoon is gonna beat it?
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#248 Postby aspen » Thu Jul 08, 2021 7:00 am

Hayabusa wrote::uarrow: Because ever since Surigae the GFS has been casually producing intense model storms that never come to fruition :lol:
But anyway TSR updated its forecast they maintain their initial prediction, around 265 ACE (270 was the initial)

Link: https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/ ... ly2021.pdf

TSR maintains its extended-range forecast and predicts Northwest Pacific typhoon activity
in 2021 will be 10% below the long-term norm and close to the 2011-2020 norm.
This outlook is predicated on our expectation that a weak La Niña will
develop during autumn 2021.


Just because it's predicting a below average season, that type of season can also produce one of the most intense TCs, just recently 2020 a below average season but it produced 170 knots Goni. Would Surigae remain as the most intense TC worldwide this year? Or another typhoon is gonna beat it?

Since this is either going to be a cool neutral ENSO or double-dip Nina year, we could see another one of those ultra-intense late season cool ENSO WPac systems like Zeb, Megi and Goni. However, I’m thinking there is a chance an Atlantic system will attempt to challenge Surigae’s title as the strongest TC worldwide this year. Keep in mind the word attempt, because 165 kt and 888 mbar is a very high bar to beat. Maybe an Atlantic storm gets around 900 mbar or even becomes the first sub-900 system since Wilma.
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Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#249 Postby Hayabusa » Thu Jul 08, 2021 10:46 am

aspen wrote:However, I’m thinking there is a chance an Atlantic system will attempt to challenge Surigae’s title as the strongest TC worldwide this year. Keep in mind the word attempt, because 165 kt and 888 mbar is a very high bar to beat. Maybe an Atlantic storm gets around 900 mbar or even becomes the first sub-900 system since Wilma.

Could be but I kind of expected that in 2020 but it didn't happen. Another thing is we're now in the 3rd consecutive season that a ≥ 160 kt typhoon formed namely: Hagibis & Halong (2019), Goni (2020), and now currently Surigae (2021). What does it mean? I don't know but it's interesting that this didn't happened before going back to 1970. Also 2012-2016 is currently the longest consecutive season where a ≥ 155 kt typhoon formed. We would still be in this streak had Lan (2017) became what the models hyped.
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#250 Postby aspen » Thu Jul 08, 2021 10:58 am

Hayabusa wrote:
aspen wrote:However, I’m thinking there is a chance an Atlantic system will attempt to challenge Surigae’s title as the strongest TC worldwide this year. Keep in mind the word attempt, because 165 kt and 888 mbar is a very high bar to beat. Maybe an Atlantic storm gets around 900 mbar or even becomes the first sub-900 system since Wilma.

Could be but I kind of expected that in 2020 but it didn't happen. Another thing is we're now in the 3rd consecutive season that a ≥ 160 kt typhoon formed namely: Hagibis & Halong (2019), Goni (2020), and now currently Surigae (2021). What does it mean? I don't know but it's interesting that this didn't happened before going back to 1970. Also 2012-2016 is currently the longest consecutive season where a ≥ 155 kt typhoon formed. We would still be in this streak had Lan (2017) became what the models hyped.

Well, 2020 did get close. If some sneaky mid-level shear never blew up Delta’s core, it probably would’ve joined the top 10 strongest Atlantic storms.

I think this year might have a better shot of a sub-910 Atlantic system due to the existence of Elsa — indicating an already favorable MDR — and the position of the ITCZ, which could allow for lower riding waves to get into the Caribbean and be long-trackers with plenty of opportunities to intensify. That, and the outlook for the Caribbean has improved over the course of the pre-season. But only time will tell.

I was almost about to say that having two 160+ kt typhoons in the same year is unprecedented, but then I remembered that Hagibis and Halong were in the same season and only a month apart. However, 2019 was a warm-neutral ENSO year, while 2021 is becoming increasingly more likely to be a double-dip Nina. On one hand, that should limit overall activity in the basin. On the other hand, as I’ve mentioned before, there are plenty of instances of extremely powerful typhoons in Nina years in the westernmost parts of the basin. I still think Surigae is all we’re gonna get, though.
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Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#251 Postby dexterlabio » Tue Jul 13, 2021 5:36 am

aspen wrote:
Hayabusa wrote:
aspen wrote:However, I’m thinking there is a chance an Atlantic system will attempt to challenge Surigae’s title as the strongest TC worldwide this year. Keep in mind the word attempt, because 165 kt and 888 mbar is a very high bar to beat. Maybe an Atlantic storm gets around 900 mbar or even becomes the first sub-900 system since Wilma.

Could be but I kind of expected that in 2020 but it didn't happen. Another thing is we're now in the 3rd consecutive season that a ≥ 160 kt typhoon formed namely: Hagibis & Halong (2019), Goni (2020), and now currently Surigae (2021). What does it mean? I don't know but it's interesting that this didn't happened before going back to 1970. Also 2012-2016 is currently the longest consecutive season where a ≥ 155 kt typhoon formed. We would still be in this streak had Lan (2017) became what the models hyped.

Well, 2020 did get close. If some sneaky mid-level shear never blew up Delta’s core, it probably would’ve joined the top 10 strongest Atlantic storms.

I think this year might have a better shot of a sub-910 Atlantic system due to the existence of Elsa — indicating an already favorable MDR — and the position of the ITCZ, which could allow for lower riding waves to get into the Caribbean and be long-trackers with plenty of opportunities to intensify. That, and the outlook for the Caribbean has improved over the course of the pre-season. But only time will tell.

I was almost about to say that having two 160+ kt typhoons in the same year is unprecedented, but then I remembered that Hagibis and Halong were in the same season and only a month apart. However, 2019 was a warm-neutral ENSO year, while 2021 is becoming increasingly more likely to be a double-dip Nina. On one hand, that should limit overall activity in the basin. On the other hand, as I’ve mentioned before, there are plenty of instances of extremely powerful typhoons in Nina years in the westernmost parts of the basin. I still think Surigae is all we’re gonna get, though.



WPAC had its most unfavorable year in recent history with 2020 in terms of TC activity but it only needed a brief window of opportunity in the prime months during autumn to spawn a record-breaking typhoon. We might be speaking too soon if we say that the -ber months won't have something to challenge Surigae, which formed in the downtime period of WPAC.

As for the ATL, it would be a real challenge to beat its own run last year, which is almost 2005-like. La Niña could definitely help the ATL but it's not always a guarantee to feature record-breaking canes.
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Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#252 Postby aspen » Tue Jul 13, 2021 12:21 pm

For the last several runs, the GFS has been forming a new TC around 3-4 days out around 20N that explodes into a 940s Cat 4 in 5-6 days. If it forms, it’ll get the name In-fa, and it would help get the WPac ACE at or above average if it becomes a major.
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Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#253 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Tue Jul 13, 2021 12:40 pm

aspen wrote:For the last several runs, the GFS has been forming a new TC around 3-4 days out around 20N that explodes into a 940s Cat 4 in 5-6 days. If it forms, it’ll get the name In-fa, and it would help get the WPac ACE at or above average if it becomes a major.

Surigae carried the season in ACE so far. only reason it is not well behind is Surigae.
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Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#254 Postby Category5Kaiju » Tue Jul 13, 2021 12:44 pm

aspen wrote:
Hayabusa wrote::uarrow: Because ever since Surigae the GFS has been casually producing intense model storms that never come to fruition :lol:
But anyway TSR updated its forecast they maintain their initial prediction, around 265 ACE (270 was the initial)

Link: https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/ ... ly2021.pdf

TSR maintains its extended-range forecast and predicts Northwest Pacific typhoon activity
in 2021 will be 10% below the long-term norm and close to the 2011-2020 norm.
This outlook is predicated on our expectation that a weak La Niña will
develop during autumn 2021.


Just because it's predicting a below average season, that type of season can also produce one of the most intense TCs, just recently 2020 a below average season but it produced 170 knots Goni. Would Surigae remain as the most intense TC worldwide this year? Or another typhoon is gonna beat it?

Since this is either going to be a cool neutral ENSO or double-dip Nina year, we could see another one of those ultra-intense late season cool ENSO WPac systems like Zeb, Megi and Goni. However, I’m thinking there is a chance an Atlantic system will attempt to challenge Surigae’s title as the strongest TC worldwide this year. Keep in mind the word attempt, because 165 kt and 888 mbar is a very high bar to beat. Maybe an Atlantic storm gets around 900 mbar or even becomes the first sub-900 system since Wilma.


Hmm, if an Atlantic system were to try to beat Surigae in strength and intensity this year, that would be extremely interesting. Not sure how likely it will happen or if it even will, but the best shot for such a system imho would be in the WCAR. In addition, for a storm to accoomplish that, it would need to not only tie or beat Allen in windspeed but also tie or beat Rita in intensity. That would certainly be a historic storm if it does happen.
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Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#255 Postby aspen » Tue Jul 13, 2021 12:53 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:
aspen wrote:
Hayabusa wrote::uarrow: Because ever since Surigae the GFS has been casually producing intense model storms that never come to fruition :lol:
But anyway TSR updated its forecast they maintain their initial prediction, around 265 ACE (270 was the initial)

Link: https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/ ... ly2021.pdf



Just because it's predicting a below average season, that type of season can also produce one of the most intense TCs, just recently 2020 a below average season but it produced 170 knots Goni. Would Surigae remain as the most intense TC worldwide this year? Or another typhoon is gonna beat it?

Since this is either going to be a cool neutral ENSO or double-dip Nina year, we could see another one of those ultra-intense late season cool ENSO WPac systems like Zeb, Megi and Goni. However, I’m thinking there is a chance an Atlantic system will attempt to challenge Surigae’s title as the strongest TC worldwide this year. Keep in mind the word attempt, because 165 kt and 888 mbar is a very high bar to beat. Maybe an Atlantic storm gets around 900 mbar or even becomes the first sub-900 system since Wilma.


Hmm, if an Atlantic system were to try to beat Surigae in strength and intensity this year, that would be extremely interesting. Not sure how likely it will happen or if it even will, but the best shot for such a system imho would be in the WCAR. In addition, for a storm to accoomplish that, it would need to not only tie or beat Allen in windspeed but also tie or beat Rita in intensity. That would certainly be a historic storm if it does happen.

Like I said before, a storm might attempt. Odds are it’ll fail because even 2020 failed; Delta was on its way to become Wilma 2.0 before mid-level shear ripped its core to shreds, and Eta was just a normal high-end Cat 4 wearing a T#8.0 costume for Halloween.

Speaking of Allen, a track like that storm is more probable this year due to the lower-latitude ITCZ, so it’s possible the strongest storm of the season will be a lower-rider long-tracker that has lots of time over the warm waters of the Caribbean. While the WCar won’t be unfavorable like earlier pre-season models suggested, I’m a little doubtful it’ll be nearly as productive as last year.
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Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#256 Postby Category5Kaiju » Tue Jul 13, 2021 1:07 pm

aspen wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:
aspen wrote:Since this is either going to be a cool neutral ENSO or double-dip Nina year, we could see another one of those ultra-intense late season cool ENSO WPac systems like Zeb, Megi and Goni. However, I’m thinking there is a chance an Atlantic system will attempt to challenge Surigae’s title as the strongest TC worldwide this year. Keep in mind the word attempt, because 165 kt and 888 mbar is a very high bar to beat. Maybe an Atlantic storm gets around 900 mbar or even becomes the first sub-900 system since Wilma.


Hmm, if an Atlantic system were to try to beat Surigae in strength and intensity this year, that would be extremely interesting. Not sure how likely it will happen or if it even will, but the best shot for such a system imho would be in the WCAR. In addition, for a storm to accoomplish that, it would need to not only tie or beat Allen in windspeed but also tie or beat Rita in intensity. That would certainly be a historic storm if it does happen.

Like I said before, a storm might attempt. Odds are it’ll fail because even 2020 failed; Delta was on its way to become Wilma 2.0 before mid-level shear ripped its core to shreds, and Eta was just a normal high-end Cat 4 wearing a T#8.0 costume for Halloween.

Speaking of Allen, a track like that storm is more probable this year due to the lower-latitude ITCZ, so it’s possible the strongest storm of the season will be a lower-rider long-tracker that has lots of time over the warm waters of the Caribbean. While the WCar won’t be unfavorable like earlier pre-season models suggested, I’m a little doubtful it’ll be nearly as productive as last year.


Interestingly enough, had Goni not happened last year, it would have been the first year since 1974 to not feature a single Cat 5 storm in the WPAC, EPAC, or Atlantic. After Delta got ripped to shreds I sure thought that that was going to happen. Not exactly sure if it's just bad luck or something else I suppose, but it almost felt like last year's Atlantic season kept trying and trying to generate a Cat 5 yet every time it did so it failed to do so, like it for some reason just couldn't. Now will this year be different? Who knows? We'll just have to wait and find out, but yeah I personally do agree that a long track, strong low latitude hurricane could plausibly happen based on what we've seen so far.
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Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#257 Postby doomhaMwx » Sun Jul 18, 2021 10:32 pm

 https://twitter.com/175knots/status/1416949651538911234




The southern system is a minor TD by JMA. Looks like two systems undergoing binary interaction on satellite loop.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1012 HPA AT 29N 164E NORTH 10 KT.

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Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#258 Postby dexterlabio » Thu Jul 22, 2021 11:34 pm

With the MJO boost and widespread areas of low pressure in the WPAC, one would expect a potent typhoon to form (no disrespect to In-fa and Cempaka). Models continue to show dirorganized slobs of low pressure aligning in the WPAC in a reverse-oriented monsoon trough fashion.

Without this configuration I think we could have seen the classic long-tracking (east to west) typhoons in the summer months. Instead, we get disorganized slobs racing towards the northeast, although they can be serious rain-maker in the region.

I think this reverse trough pattern in the WPAC, coinciding with the MJO wet phase, lowers the potential of developing tropical cyclones, which may possibly be attributed to La Niña.
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Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#259 Postby Category5Kaiju » Mon Jul 26, 2021 9:32 am

And then you have Nepartak, which I believe was at one point even emphasized to not be a fully tropical system but rather subtropical
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Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#260 Postby dexterlabio » Mon Aug 02, 2021 11:07 am

The madness of this reverse trough configuration seems to be meeting its end this week. I don't think this is an accepted notion but this kind of setup appears to hinder formation of a significant tropical cyclone...although the messy parade of convection does bring problems of flooding in Asia.

As per the models, the good ole subtropical ridge would be back in its usual place by next week. Yes, the basin will be bone dry by then, but once WPAC becomes favored again convection-wise, then we might see some real action.
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