2021 WPAC Season

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Kingarabian
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Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#261 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Aug 06, 2021 3:47 am

Possible CPAC->WPAC crossover in a few days.
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Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#262 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Aug 07, 2021 7:09 am

Image
:)
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Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#263 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sat Aug 07, 2021 10:58 am



Hone is smiling after nearly 2 years since the last CPAC storm formed
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Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#264 Postby Hayabusa » Mon Aug 09, 2021 11:39 pm

TSR August update reduces ACE prediction to ~230, its Aug 2020 ACE prediction was ~157, actual was 148.5 according to the 2020 global ACE stats thread.
TSR reduces its July outlook and predicts the Northwest Pacific typhoon season in 2021 will
likely witness an ACE index, intense typhoon numbers and typhoon numbers in the
lower tercile historically.

Image
https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/ ... st2021.pdf
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#265 Postby aspen » Tue Aug 10, 2021 9:07 am

On CSU’s ACE page, Surigae was dropped to 155kt/900mb, but the best track on the RAMMB/CIRA page remains at 165kt

http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Rea ... estpacific

https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/t ... r=wp022021
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Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#266 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Aug 15, 2021 6:02 pm

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Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#267 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Aug 18, 2021 5:30 pm

Image
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Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#268 Postby mrbagyo » Tue Aug 31, 2021 8:45 pm

You know WPAC basin is in deep slumber when you see this thread go to the PAGE 2 of Talkin Tropics in the month of September. :lol:
Image


Anyway, there's a weak system trying to pump some life to this slumbering basin.
JTWC needs to tag this one up as JMA is now expecting a TD out of it within the next 48 hrs.
It has support from most guidance but will probably be just a weak fish storm.
Image
Image
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Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#269 Postby mrbagyo » Thu Sep 02, 2021 6:02 am

The area of convection SE of Guam needs close monitoring
Image

PS: there's a weak naked circulation near the dateline
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Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#270 Postby Hayabusa » Thu Sep 02, 2021 7:01 am

mrbagyo wrote:The area of convection SE of Guam needs close monitoring
https://i.imgur.com/SswRLnZ.gif

It's already tagged as 94W more than 8 hours ago.
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#271 Postby aspen » Tue Sep 07, 2021 7:52 am

Cempaka from earlier this summer is an example of why I hate the JMA’s 10-minute wind estimates. People at the landfall point would be expecting a tropical storm, but in reality, it’s an 80 kt rapidly intensifying typhoon. Calling that a “55 kt Severe Tropical Storm” was a mistake. An even worse example was Category 2 “Severe Tropical Storm” Usagi a few years ago.
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Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#272 Postby Teban54 » Tue Sep 07, 2021 8:17 am

aspen wrote:Cempaka from earlier this summer is an example of why I hate the JMA’s 10-minute wind estimates. People at the landfall point would be expecting a tropical storm, but in reality, it’s an 80 kt rapidly intensifying typhoon. Calling that a “55 kt Severe Tropical Storm” was a mistake. An even worse example was Category 2 “Severe Tropical Storm” Usagi a few years ago.

At least China Meteorological Administration did call Cempaka a typhoon upon landfall in their own warnings.
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Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#273 Postby Hayabusa » Thu Sep 09, 2021 8:18 am

Looks like the rest of September could be possibly active based on this MJO.
Image
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#274 Postby Hayabusa » Thu Sep 09, 2021 2:55 pm

Latest and previous runs of Euro seem to be showing a low forming over the Philippine Sea in week 2, CMC also shows it. Nada from the GFS.
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#275 Postby dexterlabio » Fri Sep 10, 2021 3:33 am

Hayabusa wrote:Latest and previous runs of Euro seem to be showing a low forming over the Philippine Sea in week 2, CMC also shows it. Nada from the GFS.



Gfs ensembles however show this, as well as a pretty active 2nd and 3rd week of september
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Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#276 Postby mrbagyo » Tue Sep 14, 2021 10:34 am

Image
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Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#277 Postby dexterlabio » Tue Sep 14, 2021 1:42 pm

^I just hope this won't be another case of model "nowcasting" like what happened with Conson, and even Chanthu during its formative stages...if I'm not mistaken Chanthu was initially shown to become a disorganized mess.
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Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#278 Postby ElectricStorm » Mon Sep 20, 2021 12:14 am

0z GFS has a powerful typhoon that starts developing around 3-4 days from now. Peaks at 935mb and eventually passes to the east of Japan. We'll probably see an invest soon for this potential area.
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Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#279 Postby Hayabusa » Mon Sep 20, 2021 12:31 am

Weather Dude wrote:0z GFS has a powerful typhoon that starts developing around 3-4 days from now. Peaks at 935mb and eventually passes to the east of Japan. We'll probably see an invest soon for this potential area.

2 days ago EC ensembles started to show it too but the GFS is flip flopping on genesis, like it was showing pre-97W/98W becoming a TS.
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#280 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Sep 20, 2021 10:05 am

Latest GFS is showing multiple systems in the WPAC, especially in October
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