2021 WPAC Season

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
ElectricStorm
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4498
Age: 23
Joined: Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:23 pm
Location: Skiatook, OK / Norman, OK

Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#281 Postby ElectricStorm » Mon Sep 20, 2021 5:38 pm

Strong typhoon still there on the 18z GFS. Peaks at 933mb
0 likes   
I am in no way a professional. Take what I say with a grain of salt as I could be totally wrong. Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.

Boomer Sooner!

User avatar
Hayabusa
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3735
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2018 1:05 pm

Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#282 Postby Hayabusa » Mon Sep 20, 2021 7:38 pm

GEFS 12Z
Image
00Z Euro was developing a bonafide TS in contrast to 12Z where it's back to weak but EPS is still excited
Image
0 likes   
ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

User avatar
mrbagyo
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3613
Age: 31
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:18 am
Location: 14.13N 120.98E
Contact:

Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#283 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Sep 25, 2021 11:56 pm

Who wants triplets after Mindulle?
GFS is going crazy again with its fantasy runs
Image
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.

dexterlabio
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3405
Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm

Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#284 Postby dexterlabio » Sun Sep 26, 2021 3:28 am

^lol that scenario may not exactly pan out but the models ensembles are indicating quite an active first week of October. I fear Mindulle could just be a example of more to come. Just imagine if another Mindulle forms and does not go out to sea this time. SE Asia could be in trouble again just like last year.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

dexterlabio
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3405
Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm

Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#285 Postby dexterlabio » Tue Sep 28, 2021 1:06 pm

GFS pretending like there's El Niño on roids in the Pacific to spawn 3 simultaneous supers after Mindulle.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Hayabusa
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3735
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2018 1:05 pm

Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#286 Postby Hayabusa » Wed Sep 29, 2021 2:47 am

Latest Euro more defined on multiple storms forming.
Image
Ensemble
Image
0 likes   
ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

dexterlabio
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3405
Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm

Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#287 Postby dexterlabio » Wed Sep 29, 2021 8:20 am

Not too sure what to make of the recent GFS runs anymore...
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
mrbagyo
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3613
Age: 31
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:18 am
Location: 14.13N 120.98E
Contact:

Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#288 Postby mrbagyo » Wed Sep 29, 2021 8:47 am

dexterlabio wrote:Not too sure what to make of the recent GFS runs anymore...


It's all over the place haha
Image
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
ElectricStorm
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4498
Age: 23
Joined: Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:23 pm
Location: Skiatook, OK / Norman, OK

Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#289 Postby ElectricStorm » Fri Oct 01, 2021 11:46 am

12z GFS is going absolutely ballistic with a super typhoon in the SCS, a Cat 5 approaching Luzon, and 2 more typhoons to the east
0 likes   
I am in no way a professional. Take what I say with a grain of salt as I could be totally wrong. Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.

Boomer Sooner!

User avatar
Hayabusa
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3735
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2018 1:05 pm

Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#290 Postby Hayabusa » Fri Oct 01, 2021 11:46 am

October 2021 wants to be like the very active October 2020
Image
1 likes   
ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

dexterlabio
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3405
Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm

Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#291 Postby dexterlabio » Fri Oct 01, 2021 12:27 pm

That model typhoon shown to approach Luzon in 300+ hrs is ridiculously large, I have a hard time believing that it would translate to reality.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
mrbagyo
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3613
Age: 31
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:18 am
Location: 14.13N 120.98E
Contact:

Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#292 Postby mrbagyo » Fri Oct 01, 2021 6:52 pm

Not yet tagged but the first system (will probably become the SCS system) is looking good already

Image
Image
Image
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
doomhaMwx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2398
Age: 25
Joined: Tue Apr 18, 2017 4:01 am
Location: Baguio/Benguet, Philippines
Contact:

Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#293 Postby doomhaMwx » Mon Oct 04, 2021 9:20 pm

The remainder of 2021 looks rough for parts of SE Asia. Like in 2020 and other La Niña years, the signal is very strong for above-average rainfall / tropical activity in the Philippines and Vietnam this Oct-Nov-Dec (OND) period. The South China Sea also tends to be more favorable for tropical cyclone development than usual.

Image
Image
Image
Image


For comparison, here were the forecasts issued by different institutes for OND last year. Pretty similar to current forecasts. OND 2021 may be no different from 2020 where the Philippines and Vietnam were hit by several tropical cyclones in succession.

Image
Image
Image
Image
0 likes   
Like my content? Consider giving a tip.

User avatar
Hayabusa
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3735
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2018 1:05 pm

Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#294 Postby Hayabusa » Mon Nov 08, 2021 3:14 am

Models are showing a potential storm in week 2. Pretty interesting this year for a supposed Nina the October storms that became typhoons were Nino type tracks (east-recurve based) not to mention no intense typhoon formed as opposed to the same month last 2020, actually all years of the 2010s decade had at least a cat 3 in October while 2021 has none.
Image
Image
Might this upcoming potential storm even it out? Still long range...
0 likes   
ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

User avatar
ElectricStorm
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4498
Age: 23
Joined: Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:23 pm
Location: Skiatook, OK / Norman, OK

Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#295 Postby ElectricStorm » Fri Nov 12, 2021 4:56 pm

Just had someone who participates in hurricane hunter missions for NOAA give a presentation in my meteorology class, and he said one of their projects for 2022 is sending a P-3 to the WPAC to do recon missions in typhoons.

That would be awesome to finally get some good real time observations over there.
6 likes   
I am in no way a professional. Take what I say with a grain of salt as I could be totally wrong. Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.

Boomer Sooner!

User avatar
Teban54
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1913
Joined: Sat May 19, 2018 1:19 pm

Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#296 Postby Teban54 » Fri Nov 12, 2021 5:26 pm

Weather Dude wrote:Just had someone who participates in hurricane hunter missions for NOAA give a presentation in my meteorology class, and he said one of their projects for 2022 is sending a P-3 to the WPAC to do recon missions in typhoons.

That would be awesome to finally get some good real time observations over there.

There were also some news reports from 2020 about China Meteorological Administration flying drones to typhoons, such as this: (Sinlaku 2020)
https://www.uasvision.com/2020/08/07/china-completes-typhoon-drone-observation-test/
That one didn't include a center fix, though. There haven't been any news reports in 2021 either, so I'm not sure whether they're still working on the project.

PS: They actually called it "Project Haiyan".
0 likes   

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8897
Age: 20
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#297 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Nov 12, 2021 5:37 pm

Weather Dude wrote:Just had someone who participates in hurricane hunter missions for NOAA give a presentation in my meteorology class, and he said one of their projects for 2022 is sending a P-3 to the WPAC to do recon missions in typhoons.

That would be awesome to finally get some good real time observations over there.


There is a serious risk however, some of the strongest storms have the potential to take down some of the planes.

But the benefits is that we may finally be able to see the true estimates of these monsters.
0 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

User avatar
ElectricStorm
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4498
Age: 23
Joined: Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:23 pm
Location: Skiatook, OK / Norman, OK

Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#298 Postby ElectricStorm » Fri Nov 12, 2021 6:26 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
Weather Dude wrote:Just had someone who participates in hurricane hunter missions for NOAA give a presentation in my meteorology class, and he said one of their projects for 2022 is sending a P-3 to the WPAC to do recon missions in typhoons.

That would be awesome to finally get some good real time observations over there.


There is a serious risk however, some of the strongest storms have the potential to take down some of the planes.

But the benefits is that we may finally be able to see the true estimates of these monsters.

Nah they'll be fine. They flew through Patricia and Megi, so they can fly through anything.
0 likes   
I am in no way a professional. Take what I say with a grain of salt as I could be totally wrong. Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.

Boomer Sooner!

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8897
Age: 20
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#299 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Nov 12, 2021 7:02 pm

Weather Dude wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
Weather Dude wrote:Just had someone who participates in hurricane hunter missions for NOAA give a presentation in my meteorology class, and he said one of their projects for 2022 is sending a P-3 to the WPAC to do recon missions in typhoons.

That would be awesome to finally get some good real time observations over there.


There is a serious risk however, some of the strongest storms have the potential to take down some of the planes.

But the benefits is that we may finally be able to see the true estimates of these monsters.

Nah they'll be fine. They flew through Patricia and Megi, so they can fly through anything.

And we can find the True Estimate of these monster storms, possibly for the first time in Decades in the WPAC.
0 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 15948
Age: 25
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:

Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#300 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Nov 12, 2021 7:32 pm

Weather Dude wrote:Just had someone who participates in hurricane hunter missions for NOAA give a presentation in my meteorology class, and he said one of their projects for 2022 is sending a P-3 to the WPAC to do recon missions in typhoons.

That would be awesome to finally get some good real time observations over there.


I’ll believe it when I see it.
5 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Google Adsense [Bot], pepecool20 and 68 guests