2021 EPAC Season

[Kingarabian]

Well the EPAC has had an abundant amount of scattered convection recently.

[Kingarabian]

GFS appears to be latching on a robust disturbance which could be the next EPAC TC.

[cycloneye]

Activity soon?

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1392929651597643776

[galaxy401]

Season has now officially begun. Here's hoping for a more active season and we in the US Southwest can actually get some rain!

[Yellow Evan]

Short term development is unlikely as the NIO is easily steeling the convective activity rn.

[Kingarabian]

Short term development is unlikely as the NIO is easily steeling the convective activity rn.

The models do show a pretty good disturbance/low pressure area developing in the far eastern Pacific. Maybe a shot at another weak TS.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue May 18 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A broad area of low pressure could form in a couple of days a few
hundred miles south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehauntepec.
Thereafter, some slow development is possible while the system
moves to the west at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Blake

[InfernoFlameCat]

We have a decent healthy wave moving in. I see a few others coming along as well. Too much dust preventing disturbances in the Atlantic however. I am seeing less and less of a chance of a pre season atlantic system forming.

[Kingarabian]

It's increasingly looking like we'll see two named systems, one in a week and another by the end of May. When was the last time we had three named systems in May?

The 0/20 system has a pretty good shot at becoming our 2nd EPAC system, although it very likely will be a sheared mess and short lived.

In 9-10 days there's very good model support for another TC. This one has the potential to be the strongest so far according to recent deterministic and ensemble runs.

All while preceding the MJO, which won't be in the EPAC until the first week of June.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue May 18 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A low pressure system could form during the next day or so a few
hundred hundred miles south of Guatemala and the Gulf of
Tehuantepec. Thereafter, some slow development will be possible
while the system moves westward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

[Yellow Evan]

899
ABPZ20 KNHC 201143
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu May 20 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A low pressure system could still form during the next day or so a
few hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. However, shower
and thunderstorm activity has decreased in coverage over this
system, and additional development is looking less likely as
environmental conditions are forecast to become less conductive for
tropical cyclone formation by this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Beven

This was never going to develop in the first place

[Kingarabian]

899
ABPZ20 KNHC 201143
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu May 20 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A low pressure system could still form during the next day or so a
few hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. However, shower
and thunderstorm activity has decreased in coverage over this
system, and additional development is looking less likely as
environmental conditions are forecast to become less conductive for
tropical cyclone formation by this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Beven

This was never going to develop in the first place

Looks like there's better odds for a late May system.

[cycloneye]

NOAA May forecast:

12-18 Named Storms
5-10 Hurricanes
2-5 Major Hurricanes
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) range of 65%-120% of the median.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Epac_hurr/

[Yellow Evan]

Sounds about right. Pretty confident in an average but formidable season with tracks shifted way to the east compared to recent years.

[Yellow Evan]

Shower and thunderstorm activity remains minimal with a weak area of
low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the
Gulf of Tehuantepec. Additional development of this system is no
longer anticipated as environmental conditions are now forecast to
remain unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

[Kingarabian]

Very good support for a 2nd May system. Models have something developing in the day 8-10 range:

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Very good support for a 2nd May system. Models have something developing in the day 8-10 range:
https://i.imgur.com/reUAqNk.png

GFS:

[cycloneye]

We have the first wave in the MDR but no development is expected in the next few days, however it may be the trigger for development in EPAC and the models continue to have development on medium range.

[Yellow Evan]

12z GFS.

[Yellow Evan]

12z ECMWF dropped it.