2021 EPAC Season

[cycloneye]

90E soon?

[Yellow Evan]

NHC is really cautious in the off-season so no guarantee it gets invested but probably worthy of a 10/30 or so.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Wondering if we may be running out of time here...the strong suppressive MJO phase is now moving into the region. Models seem to be backing off in intensity for this system so I'm wondering if this is what they are latching on to. Remember that systems that form this early on in both the Atlantic and EPAC are almost entirely dependent on strong CCKW/MJO passage, so there typically is only a short window for these things to blossom since climo is not the best.

[Kingarabian]

All the major globals make this a TD/low end TS within the next 72 hours.

I'm not sure why there's zero interest from the NHC. This AOI has sustained itself for the past 72 hours.

[Yellow Evan]

12z ECMWF came in less aggressive but GFS has been pretty consistent on this. I expect something to try to form especially considering it already has some curved signature as is, though I'm not confident in this given first, how hostile the MJO is and second, it's still early May, and third, wind shear is quite strong north of 15-16N.

[Kingarabian]

:uarrow: 12z ECMWF came in less aggressive but GFS has been pretty consistent on this. I expect something to try to form especially considering it already has some curved signature as is, though I'm not confident in this given first, how hostile the MJO is and second, it's still early May, and third, wind shear is quite strong north of 15-16N.

Yeah I think development odds are near 50%. So I think it warrants a yellow/orange circle.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

:uarrow: 12z ECMWF came in less aggressive but GFS has been pretty consistent on this. I expect something to try to form especially considering it already has some curved signature as is, though I'm not confident in this given first, how hostile the MJO is and second, it's still early May, and third, wind shear is quite strong north of 15-16N.

Yeah I think development odds are near 50%. So I think it warrants a yellow/orange circle.

Yeah, even though I'm pretty bearish on development prospects I would at least issue an STWO. We'll see.

[Kingarabian]

Consistent bursts of convection this evening from this disturbance. It's maintaining convection a lot better than most of those SAL ridden tropical waves that come off Africa.

[JW-_-]

Deterministic seeing some chance for a classification @ some point.

[cycloneye]

Here we go.

[cycloneye]

INVEST 90E is up

[InfernoFlameCat]

This could become a mid level tropical storm. I do not think it will be a hurricane because it will move into unfavorable conditions before it can really get going. It has probably 5 or so more days of favorable conditions.

[Kingarabian]

The EPAC could get off to a fast start. Another window is opening up for TC development over the EPAC in about 2 weeks. A moderate-strong CCKW is set to pass the Pacific in this time frame. Then in mid June we should see a active MJO pulse moving through the region as well which would also support TC development.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

The EPAC could get off to a fast start. Another window is opening up for TC development over the EPAC in about 2 weeks. A moderate-strong CCKW is set to pass the Pacific in this time frame. Then in mid June we should see a active MJO pulse moving through the region as well which would also support TC development.
https://i.imgur.com/173KQMg.png

Yeah moves into phase 8/1 by the beginning of June on the Euro. Wonder if we'll see a classic early-season Atlantic/EPAC CAG battle setup. Those are always fun...(not really since they can often be headaches to forecast)

[Yellow Evan]

I’d expect something to at least try and form in about 10-14 days and I’d say the door is at least open for up to 3 tropical cyclones in the next 30 days and there’s a non-zero chance we see a historically active May.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

I’d expect something to at least try and form in about 10-14 days and I’d say the door is at least open for up to 3 tropical cyclones in the next 30 days and there’s a non-zero chance we see a historically active May.

A May 'cane would be interesting...obviously it would be difficult to get another Bud 2012/Amanda 2014 but even a cat 1 would be cool to see.

[Yellow Evan]

I’d expect something to at least try and form in about 10-14 days and I’d say the door is at least open for up to 3 tropical cyclones in the next 30 days and there’s a non-zero chance we see a historically active May.

A May 'cane would be interesting...obviously it would be difficult to get another Bud 2012/Amanda 2014 but even a cat 1 would be cool to see.

I can't rule it out this far out given the MJO/CCKW forcing will be there. A May hurricane or even a major hurricane is not that difficult to get if the timing is right and the disturbance can develop quickly enough. We did go 4 consecutive years with a May hurricane last decade, 3 of which were majors.

[Category5Kaiju]

NHC upgraded the EPAC disturbance to 60/70%; looks like we may be seeing Andres quite soon

[Astromanía]

The EPAC could get off to a fast start. Another window is opening up for TC development over the EPAC in about 2 weeks. A moderate-strong CCKW is set to pass the Pacific in this time frame. Then in mid June we should see a active MJO pulse moving through the region as well which would also support TC development.
https://i.imgur.com/173KQMg.png

if that happens then I hope some of those potentially systems bring much needed rain here in Mexico, more than a half of the country is in an extreme drought, we are now depending of tropical cyclones

[Nimbus]

NHC upgraded the EPAC disturbance to 60/70%; looks like we may be seeing Andres quite soon

Noticed this on the water vapor imagery, might mean an early May start to the season.
With plywood over $60 a sheet I was hoping 2021 would be a quiet year.