2021 EPAC Season

[Kingarabian]

12z CMC has twin weak systems:

[Yellow Evan]

18z GFS has three vorticities that merge into one.

[Yellow Evan]

0z GFS.

[Yellow Evan]

Zilch on 0z ECMWF. GFS 6z showed a hurricane meanwhile.

[Yellow Evan]

12z GFS back with 2 storms with the time frame on the 1st moving down.

[Yellow Evan]

12z ECMWF barely closes off a low.

[Kingarabian]

12z ECMWF barely closes off a low.

Latest Euro now shows both vorts although very weak.

12z CMC weaker in intensity on both systems compared to the GFS, but much stronger than the Euro.

Better consensus in the 12z suite.

[cycloneye]

The 12z suite.

[Yellow Evan]

18z GFS now favoring a second system. Wouldn't surprise me if other models come around to this solution.

[JW-_-]

Icon also seeing some near future activity across basins. Maybe with also a Central American gyre.

[Kingarabian]

00z UKMET begins development in 144 hours/7days, favoring the first of the twin low pressure areas.

[Yellow Evan]

[Kingarabian]

The culprit of this uptick in activity for the EPAC despite no MJO appears to be another quick strike fast moving CCKW:
Red circle is the actual MJO future position per RMM.

Weird how some runs, the models are favoring the area around 110W-120W. IMO it's a bit too early for development this west in the EPAC.

00z CMC favoring the first system, keeps the 2nd system very weak:


00z Euro has three candidates, develops the 2nd one:

[Kingarabian]

Major hurricane in late May?

[Kingarabian]

Some signs of an active CCKW en-route. Enhanced convection appears to be spreading from the WPAC into the CPAC.

[Astromanía]

Major hurricane in late May?

https://i.imgur.com/bm82wWB.png

Wasn't Amanda from 2014 a major hurricane in May? although that was an el Niño year, so it's kind strange for this type of year if something like that develops

[Yellow Evan]

Major hurricane in late May?

https://i.imgur.com/bm82wWB.png

Wasn't Amanda from 2014 a major hurricane in May? although that was an el Niño year, so it's kind strange for this type of year if something like that develops

Yes it was though May major hurricanes have occurred outside El Niños (see 2001 and 2012). With that said, GFS has been too aggressive intensity wise so far this year globally even if it’s done better than the ECMWF with genesis so I’m not counting on a robust hurricane to form.

[Yellow Evan]

6z GFS the strongest yet.



12z GFS is also potent but has a later peak.

[Yellow Evan]

0z and 12z CMC runs don't exactly love this.

[cycloneye]

12z Euro has it's strongest run so far.