2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
Category5Kaiju
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3344
Age: 22
Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
Location: Seattle

Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#4241 Postby Category5Kaiju » Tue Nov 30, 2021 6:32 pm

Aside from tropical meterology and biology, one field of science that I am also a fan of is paleontology, and given that, I am very much aware that the Permian/Triassic mass extinction is known colloquially as the "Great Dying." Seems like with tropical cyclones after September in 2021 worldwide, there was also a sort of "Great Dying" that occurred as well :D .
2 likes   
Unless explicitly stated, all information covered in my posts is based on my opinions and observations. Please refer to a professional meteorologist or an accredited weather research agency otherwise, especially if serious decisions must be made in the event of a potentially life-threatening tropical storm or hurricane.

dexterlabio
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3405
Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm

Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#4242 Postby dexterlabio » Tue Nov 30, 2021 8:00 pm

Nyatoh says hi. :lol:
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
ElectricStorm
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4498
Age: 23
Joined: Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:23 pm
Location: Skiatook, OK / Norman, OK

Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#4243 Postby ElectricStorm » Wed Dec 01, 2021 12:14 am

Welp. That's gonna do it for the 2021 Atlantic season. Another active and destructive year in the books, despite the late season shutdown. Definitely had some insane storms though. Now we wait to see what 2022 will bring. I'm personally hoping for a less active Atlantic, and a more active Pacific. The Atlantic needs a break after the last 6 years...
0 likes   
I am in no way a professional. Take what I say with a grain of salt as I could be totally wrong. Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.

Boomer Sooner!

User avatar
Hammy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5594
Age: 40
Joined: Fri May 25, 2012 5:25 pm
Contact:

Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#4244 Postby Hammy » Wed Dec 01, 2021 1:25 am

This was perhaps the most disappointing third act of any hurricane season since 2006.
2 likes   
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Teban54
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1912
Joined: Sat May 19, 2018 1:19 pm

Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#4245 Postby Teban54 » Wed Dec 01, 2021 1:36 am

Was the late-season shutdown (both in Atlantic and worldwide) expected beforehand, or in other words, were there signs that in hindsight could have predicted an inactive late season with certainty? Or was it a surprise to everyone except the bears?
1 likes   

hurricanes1234
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2903
Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
Location: Trinidad and Tobago

Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#4246 Postby hurricanes1234 » Wed Dec 01, 2021 6:49 am

Teban54 wrote:Was the late-season shutdown (both in Atlantic and worldwide) expected beforehand, or in other words, were there signs that in hindsight could have predicted an inactive late season with certainty? Or was it a surprise to everyone except the bears?


I think it came as a complete surprise to nearly everyone (and to some extent, even those who were bearish) because I remember down to late September, there was talk of the Atlantic producing lots of storms in October and November when the MJO was supposed to be more favourable. But it kept being pushed back on the models until eventually it just got too late in the year for anything substantial, which was a universal shocker in a La Niña year that was supposed to be favourable. Even the bears probably didn't expect that only one weak swirl would form after Sam. Although to be fair, I do remember a couple meteorologists tweeting in early October that the season might end after Sam but at the time it seemed like a crazy idea.

All in all, IMO it was a fairly active year but given all the lulls, storms which struggled and the ridiculously early shutdown, in a sense it feels like it never really had the chance to take off (minus a few individual storms which broke the trend of everything struggling). I'm kinda glad we never got to the auxiliary list because I feel like this season probably wasn't deserving of that rare feat which only exceptional years such as 2005 and 2020 achieved. With 21 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes, I'd say it was slightly above-average overall but with a high number of borderline (yet completely valid) storms that helped inflate the numbers somewhat. The ACE finished close to the hyperactive threshold but much of that was from Sam and we probably wouldn't have crossed 100 otherwise.

Hammy wrote:This was perhaps the most disappointing third act of any hurricane season since 2006.


I wouldn't even call it an act because no actors came on stage and all the theatre lights were off. :lol:
3 likes   
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.

Shell Mound
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2434
Age: 31
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2017 3:39 pm
Location: St. Petersburg, FL → Scandinavia

Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#4247 Postby Shell Mound » Wed Dec 01, 2021 11:29 am

According to CSU, the AMO average for August–September 2021 was the most positive value on record for this bimonthly period since 2013. Nevertheless, as CSU’s annual verification mentioned, despite the +AMO, -ENSO, and westward-bound steering currents, bouts of strong vertical wind shear, especially during October, kept seasonal ACE at a lower level than might otherwise have been expected, while reducing the potential impacts somewhat as well. Given the relative dearth of quality—apart from Ida, Sam, and perhaps Larry—vs. quantity, I still think that this season was underwhelming from a statistical and climatological standpoint, in light of the background state. One would have expected more hurricane and major-hurricane days than actually occurred, for instance.
2 likes   
CVW / MiamiensisWx / Shell Mound
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8030
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#4248 Postby aspen » Wed Dec 01, 2021 3:26 pm

Shell Mound wrote:According to CSU, the AMO average for August–September 2021 was the most positive value on record for this bimonthly period since 2013. Nevertheless, as CSU’s annual verification mentioned, despite the +AMO, -ENSO, and westward-bound steering currents, bouts of strong vertical wind shear, especially during October, kept seasonal ACE at a lower level than might otherwise have been expected, while reducing the potential impacts somewhat as well. Given the relative dearth of quality—apart from Ida, Sam, and perhaps Larry—vs. quantity, I still think that this season was underwhelming from a statistical and climatological standpoint, in light of the background state. One would have expected more hurricane and major-hurricane days than actually occurred, for instance.

It was a weird mix of quality and quantity. Remember, Sam was one of the top ten biggest ACE makers of the satellite era, joining the 50+ ACE club and just edging out Luis for the #7 spot. Larry was also over 30 ACE, making 2021 the first season with multiple >30 ACE systems since 2017 or 2019* — and both storms occurred in a month with only one other hurricane and so many weak, short-lived slop storms.

*I forget what Lorenzo’s ACE total was
2 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8030
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#4249 Postby aspen » Fri Dec 03, 2021 8:40 pm

The global MH drought between Sam’s final peak and Nyatoh’s RI was 60 or 61 days; it depends on whether or not Sam became a Cat 3 again on October 4th. How does this compare to other global MH droughts? Based on Phil’s tweets, this might be the longest in the satellite era.
1 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

Category5Kaiju
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3344
Age: 22
Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
Location: Seattle

Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#4250 Postby Category5Kaiju » Thu Dec 30, 2021 2:46 pm

What a thread guys, before this thread gets locked just wanted to say that it was very fun interacting with all of you guys on this 2021 indicators thread. Plus, it looks like with 4250 posts as of writing this now we've officially created the longest sst indicators thread of any year so far! Let's see if 2022's thread becomes longer, can't wait to see all the interesting thoughts that appear on the 2022 thread! :cheesy: :cheesy: :cheesy:
4 likes   
Unless explicitly stated, all information covered in my posts is based on my opinions and observations. Please refer to a professional meteorologist or an accredited weather research agency otherwise, especially if serious decisions must be made in the event of a potentially life-threatening tropical storm or hurricane.

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138884
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#4251 Postby cycloneye » Thu Dec 30, 2021 4:19 pm

These indicator threads are never locked :D so if anyone has comments about the 2021 indicators, you can post them.

Category5Kaiju, it depends on how things pan out that a indicators thread has more or less pages.
1 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

Category5Kaiju
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3344
Age: 22
Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
Location: Seattle

Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#4252 Postby Category5Kaiju » Thu Dec 30, 2021 5:53 pm

cycloneye wrote:These indicator threads are never locked :D so if anyone has comments about the 2021 indicators, you can post them.

Category5Kaiju, it depends on how things pan out that a indicators thread has more or less pages.


Oh ok that's good to know (I noticed how the 2020 sst thread was locked so I wasn't sure if locking the sst indicators thread after a given year passes was routine on this site). Anyhow, looking forward to 2022! Hopefully it's a calmer year than the past 6 brutal seasons, but only time will tell of course.
0 likes   
Unless explicitly stated, all information covered in my posts is based on my opinions and observations. Please refer to a professional meteorologist or an accredited weather research agency otherwise, especially if serious decisions must be made in the event of a potentially life-threatening tropical storm or hurricane.

AlphaToOmega
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1448
Joined: Sat Jun 26, 2021 10:51 am
Location: Somewhere in Massachusetts

Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#4253 Postby AlphaToOmega » Fri Dec 31, 2021 5:36 pm

What I think might be occurring is that 2021 was such an MDR-focused season that it could not "adjust" to the climatology of the late season: one that is heavily focused in the Western Atlantic. Other MDR-heavy seasons, such as 2004 and 2017, despite being La Niña/El Niño Modoki seasons, had very lackluster late seasons, probably because they were so MDR-heavy. Something else that might be occurring (correlated to the fact about the reliance on the MDR) is that the low-latitude ITCZ "shoved" tropical waves into the East Pacific during the later part of the season. Seasons with low-latitude ITCZs such as 2004 and 2007, despite being La Niña/El Niño Modoki seasons, had very lackluster late seasons, probably because of their low-latitude ITCZs.

With this post, I am officially signing off for 2021...
1 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: duilaslol, NotSparta and 67 guests