2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#4181 Postby aspen » Mon Nov 01, 2021 9:33 am

October 2021 has behaved like a combination of October 2007 and 2011: anomalously reduced Atlantic activity with no NS forming until the last days of the month (2007), no WPac majors (2011), and an unusually active EPac for a -ENSO autumn with a hurricane landfall in Mexico (2011). November 2011 went on to be even weirder with Cat 4 Kenneth taking a track like a July-September storm; it’s possible that “future Sandra” attempts to be like a weak Kenneth ‘11 repeat.

Obviously something unusual is going on, seeing how the entire planet has had the longest major TC drought in over 40 years. Like tolkram said, this isn’t as simple as unfavorable MJO action because if it was that simple, -ENSO October shutdowns should be more common.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#4182 Postby kevin » Mon Nov 01, 2021 9:47 am

kevin wrote:Yes it's incredible how quiet the TC season has been in October worldwide so far, not just in the Atlantic. Here's the most intense (= lowest pressure) TC in October (globally) for each year since 2000. 2021's October isn't done yet, but right now its 975 mb value is the least intense one in the 21st century. Based on a normal distribution of the last 20 years we get an average of 915.1 mb with a standard deviation of 22.8 mb. That means that the statistical chance of 975 mb being the most intense month in a random October month would be ~0.4% or roughly 1 in 250. 2000 was already remarkable with Xangsane, a 960mb cat 2, being the most intense storm of the month but a 975 mb storm would really be a major statistical anomaly.

Year / Name / Basin / Pressure (mb) / Wind (mph) / Cat / Named storms

2021 / Kompasu / WPAC / 975 / 65 / TS / 10
2020 / Goni / WPAC / 905 / 195 / 5 / 19

2019 / Hagibis / WPAC / 915 / 185 / 5 / 17
2018 / Yutu / WPAC / 900 / 175 / 5 / 11
2017 / Lan / WPAC / 915 / 155 / 4 / 14
2016 / Haima / WPAC / 900 / 165 / 5 / 13
2015 / Patricia / EPAC / 872 / 215 / 5 / 14
2014 / Vongfong / WPAC / 900 / 180 / 5 / 11
2013 / Lekima / WPAC / 905 / 160 / 5 / 20
2012 / Sandy / NATL / 940 / 115 / 3 / 15
2011 / Jova / EPAC / 955 / 125 / 3 / 8
2010 / Megi / WPAC / 885 / 185 / 5 / 15

2009 / Rick / EPAC / 906 / 180 / 5 / 10
2008 / Norbert / EPAC / 945 / 130 / 4 / 14
2007 / Krosa / WPAC / 925 / 155 / 4 / 13
2006 / Cimaron / WPAC / 920 / 160 / 5 / 15
2005 / Wilma / NATL / 882 / 185 / 5 / 16
2004 / Ma-on / WPAC / 920 / 160 / 5 / 12
2003 / Parma/ WPAC / 930 / 135 / 4 / 14
2002 / Kenna / EPAC / 913 / 165 / 5 / 12
2001 / Podul / WPAC / 925 / 185 / 5 / 19
2000 / Xangsane / WPAC / 960 / 105 / 2 / 14


^updated version of the overview including number of named storms. Kompasu has remained the most intense TC globally in October, making it the 'weakest strongest' October storm of the 21st century. Furthermore, only 10 TCs formed globally in October 2021 (Lionrock, Kompasu, Nando, Namtheun, Pamela, Rick, Malou, 26W, Apollo and Wanda). This is the lowest number of tropical storms in October since 2011 (based on the wikipedia page).
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#4183 Postby Category5Kaiju » Mon Nov 01, 2021 9:50 am

aspen wrote:October 2021 has behaved like a combination of October 2007 and 2011: anomalously reduced Atlantic activity with no NS forming until the last days of the month (2007), no WPac majors (2011), and an unusually active EPac for a -ENSO autumn with a hurricane landfall in Mexico (2011). November 2011 went on to be even weirder with Cat 4 Kenneth taking a track like a July-September storm; it’s possible that “future Sandra” attempts to be like a weak Kenneth ‘11 repeat.

Obviously something unusual is going on, seeing how the entire planet has had the longest major TC drought in over 40 years. Like tolkram said, this isn’t as simple as unfavorable MJO action because if it was that simple, -ENSO October shutdowns should be more common.


Yeah I agree, at this point I sincerely think that there's some extremely weird phenomenon going on that is causing this major TC drought worldwide, and whatever it is needs to be researched after this season is over as I do not think unfavorable MJO phase of what not can explain it adequately. In fact, this could be one of those very rare occasions (like 2013) when a completely new, unforeseen combination of factors or an entirely new phenomenon happens and completely defies climo. Also I cannot recall the last time a year had a late season with an inactive WPAC and Atlantic but an active EPAC. That has to be not common at all. Was it 2011?
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#4184 Postby Category5Kaiju » Mon Nov 01, 2021 9:56 am

kevin wrote:
kevin wrote:Yes it's incredible how quiet the TC season has been in October worldwide so far, not just in the Atlantic. Here's the most intense (= lowest pressure) TC in October (globally) for each year since 2000. 2021's October isn't done yet, but right now its 975 mb value is the least intense one in the 21st century. Based on a normal distribution of the last 20 years we get an average of 915.1 mb with a standard deviation of 22.8 mb. That means that the statistical chance of 975 mb being the most intense month in a random October month would be ~0.4% or roughly 1 in 250. 2000 was already remarkable with Xangsane, a 960mb cat 2, being the most intense storm of the month but a 975 mb storm would really be a major statistical anomaly.

Year / Name / Basin / Pressure (mb) / Wind (mph) / Cat / Named storms

2021 / Kompasu / WPAC / 975 / 65 / TS / 10
2020 / Goni / WPAC / 905 / 195 / 5 / 19

2019 / Hagibis / WPAC / 915 / 185 / 5 / 17
2018 / Yutu / WPAC / 900 / 175 / 5 / 11
2017 / Lan / WPAC / 915 / 155 / 4 / 14
2016 / Haima / WPAC / 900 / 165 / 5 / 13
2015 / Patricia / EPAC / 872 / 215 / 5 / 14
2014 / Vongfong / WPAC / 900 / 180 / 5 / 11
2013 / Lekima / WPAC / 905 / 160 / 5 / 20
2012 / Sandy / NATL / 940 / 115 / 3 / 15
2011 / Jova / EPAC / 955 / 125 / 3 / 8
2010 / Megi / WPAC / 885 / 185 / 5 / 15

2009 / Rick / EPAC / 906 / 180 / 5 / 10
2008 / Norbert / EPAC / 945 / 130 / 4 / 14
2007 / Krosa / WPAC / 925 / 155 / 4 / 13
2006 / Cimaron / WPAC / 920 / 160 / 5 / 15
2005 / Wilma / NATL / 882 / 185 / 5 / 16
2004 / Ma-on / WPAC / 920 / 160 / 5 / 12
2003 / Parma/ WPAC / 930 / 135 / 4 / 14
2002 / Kenna / EPAC / 913 / 165 / 5 / 12
2001 / Podul / WPAC / 925 / 185 / 5 / 19
2000 / Xangsane / WPAC / 960 / 105 / 2 / 14


^updated version of the overview including number of named storms. Kompasu has remained the most intense TC globally in October, making it the 'weakest strongest' October storm of the 21st century. Furthermore, only 10 TCs formed globally in October 2021 (Lionrock, Kompasu, Nando, Namtheun, Pamela, Rick, Malou, 26W, Apollo and Wanda). This is the lowest number of tropical storms in October since 2011 (based on the wikipedia page).


If no major TCs form globally until and after November 10ish, we would beat 1977 in this extremely mind-boggling drought.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#4185 Postby kevin » Mon Nov 01, 2021 10:06 am

And now here's the same overview for November. Let's see whether this month can actually perform TC-wise. On average in the last 20 years the most intense november storm had a minimum pressure of 934 mb (stdev = 25 mb). On average 9.4 storms (stdev = 2.9) form globally this month.

Year / Name / Basin / Pressure (mb) / Wind (mph) / Cat / # storms

2020 / Iota / NATL / 917 / 155 / 4 / 12

2019 / Halong / WPAC / 905 / 190 / 5 / 15
2018 / Owen / AUS / 958 / 100 / 2 / 11
2017 / Ockhi / NIO / 976 / 115 / 3 / 8
2016 / Otto / NATL / 975 / 115 / 3 / 14
2015 / Sandra / EPAC / 935 / 150 / 4 / 8
2014 / Hagupit / WPAC / 905 / 180 / 5 / 7
2013 / Haiyan / WPAC / 895 / 195 / 5 / 10
2012 / Bopha / WPAC / 930 / 175 / 5 / 6
2011 / Kenneth / EPAC / 940 / 145 / 4 / 7

2010 / Abele / SWIO / 974 / 95 / 1 / 5
2009 / Nida / WPAC / 905 / 180 / 5 / 10
2008 / Paloma / NATL / 944 / 145 / 4 / 12
2007 / Sidr / NIO / 944 / 160 / 5 / 13
2006 / Durian / WPAC / 915 / 155 / 4 / 9
2005 / Bertie-Alvin / SWIO / 915 / 120 / 3 / 10
2004 / Bento / SWIO / 915 / 160 / 5 / 10
2003 / Lupit / WPAC / 915 / 165 / 5 / 6
2002 / Haishen / WPAC / 955 / 110 / 2 / 8
2001 / Lingling / WPAC / 940 / 130 / 4 / 12
2000 / BOB 05 / NIO / 958 / 75 / 1 / 5
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#4186 Postby Ubuntwo » Mon Nov 01, 2021 2:48 pm

The MJO has remained null. An amplifying kelvin wave is passing through the basin, the strongest since September. That kelvin wave may restart the MJO when it crosses the Indian Ocean. If the MJO enters the WHem again this year, it will be very late - end of November into December - and it has to survive the La Nina to pull that off.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#4187 Postby Category5Kaiju » Wed Nov 03, 2021 6:40 pm

I just realized this, but if Wanda maintains strength or slightly strengthens while also lasting into the weekend, the Atlantic's total ACE could reach 145 or so quite soon. We have already surpassed 2016's total ACE and are on track to meet 2008 quite plausibly.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#4188 Postby aspen » Thu Nov 04, 2021 8:16 am

Oct-Nov 2021 has turned out to be the complete opposite of Oct-Nov 2020. Instead of an exceptional amount of storms and hurricanes forming in the western Atlantic, there has instead been an unusual amount of storms and hurricanes forming in the East Pacific, despite 2021 also being a Nina year. Invest 93E is likely a TD and could become Hurricane Sandra, and another AOI could become the fourth NS in the last few weeks.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#4189 Postby Teban54 » Thu Nov 04, 2021 9:55 am

aspen wrote:Oct-Nov 2021 has turned out to be the complete opposite of Oct-Nov 2020. Instead of an exceptional amount of storms and hurricanes forming in the western Atlantic, there has instead been an unusual amount of storms and hurricanes forming in the East Pacific, despite 2021 also being a Nina year. Invest 93E is likely a TD and could become Hurricane Sandra, and another AOI could become the fourth NS in the last few weeks.

I believe Pamela, Rick and future Sandra would have been hurricanes in the Caribbean if the ITCZ was a bit further north. The active WAM still put in work, just in the wrong basin, and we were really close to having at least a 2020-lite Caribbean late season.
Last edited by Teban54 on Thu Nov 04, 2021 11:02 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#4190 Postby aspen » Thu Nov 04, 2021 10:23 am

Teban54 wrote:
aspen wrote:Oct-Nov 2021 has turned out to be the complete opposite of Oct-Nov 2020. Instead of an exceptional amount of storms and hurricanes forming in the western Atlantic, there has instead been an unusual amount of storms and hurricanes forming in the East Pacific, despite 2021 also being a Nina year. Invest 93E is likely a TD and could become Hurricane Sandra, and another AOI could become the fourth NS in the last few weeks.

I believe Patricia, Rick and future Sandra would have been hurricanes in the Caribbean if the ITCZ was a bit further north. The active WAM still put in work, just in the wrong basin, and we were really close to having at least a 2020-lite Caribbean late season.

I don’t remember Patricia being a sheared Cat 1 lol
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#4191 Postby kevin » Thu Nov 04, 2021 10:41 am

aspen wrote:
Teban54 wrote:
aspen wrote:Oct-Nov 2021 has turned out to be the complete opposite of Oct-Nov 2020. Instead of an exceptional amount of storms and hurricanes forming in the western Atlantic, there has instead been an unusual amount of storms and hurricanes forming in the East Pacific, despite 2021 also being a Nina year. Invest 93E is likely a TD and could become Hurricane Sandra, and another AOI could become the fourth NS in the last few weeks.

I believe Patricia, Rick and future Sandra would have been hurricanes in the Caribbean if the ITCZ was a bit further north. The active WAM still put in work, just in the wrong basin, and we were really close to having at least a 2020-lite Caribbean late season.

I don’t remember Patricia being a sheared Cat 1 lol


Haha I think he meant Pamela. Having a Patricia in the Caribbean would be quite something. I mean I guess we had Wilma, but if there's any modern non-WPAC storm more impressive than Wilma it's definitely Patricia.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#4192 Postby Teban54 » Thu Nov 04, 2021 11:03 am

aspen wrote:
Teban54 wrote:
aspen wrote:Oct-Nov 2021 has turned out to be the complete opposite of Oct-Nov 2020. Instead of an exceptional amount of storms and hurricanes forming in the western Atlantic, there has instead been an unusual amount of storms and hurricanes forming in the East Pacific, despite 2021 also being a Nina year. Invest 93E is likely a TD and could become Hurricane Sandra, and another AOI could become the fourth NS in the last few weeks.

I believe Patricia, Rick and future Sandra would have been hurricanes in the Caribbean if the ITCZ was a bit further north. The active WAM still put in work, just in the wrong basin, and we were really close to having at least a 2020-lite Caribbean late season.

I don’t remember Patricia being a sheared Cat 1 lol

Oops, big typo.

I do think it's theoretically possible to get a Patricia-like storm in the Caribbean. Wilma was close. But 2021 didn't seem like the right year for it even if the ITCZ was indeed further north.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#4193 Postby tolakram » Thu Nov 04, 2021 11:28 am

November might not be 'exciting' but the number of tropical storm days continues to rise as long as Wanda wanders in the north Atlantic.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#4194 Postby skyline385 » Thu Nov 04, 2021 8:29 pm

tolakram wrote:November might not be 'exciting' but the number of tropical storm days continues to rise as long as Wanda wanders in the north Atlantic.


Seems like we have had a lot of storms wandering the Atlantic and pumping the stats this season...

We are on path for the 3rd most active season in modern records but sure doesnt feel like it
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#4195 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sat Nov 06, 2021 7:26 pm

We are getting very close to surpassing 1977 for the longest drought of late season major tropical cyclones WORLDWIDE!!!! I would have to imagine that at least one basin would produce something of at least Cat 3 strength this month, but we'll see. This is so extraordinary.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#4196 Postby skyline385 » Sat Nov 06, 2021 7:51 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:We are getting very close to surpassing 1977 for the longest drought of late season major tropical cyclones WORLDWIDE!!!! I would have to imagine that at least one basin would produce something of at least Cat 3 strength this month, but we'll see. This is so extraordinary.


This is indeed remarkable, there is nothing on the long range GFS even though the WPAC and Caribbean are full of energy with 30-31C waters. If anything, this season has shown that as we see more and more extreme SST from climate change, there are still other factors which can completely disrupt tropical cyclogenesis.

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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#4197 Postby aspen » Sat Nov 06, 2021 8:03 pm

skyline385 wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:We are getting very close to surpassing 1977 for the longest drought of late season major tropical cyclones WORLDWIDE!!!! I would have to imagine that at least one basin would produce something of at least Cat 3 strength this month, but we'll see. This is so extraordinary.


This is indeed remarkable, there is nothing on the long range GFS even though the WPAC and Caribbean are full of energy with 30-31C waters. If anything, this season has shown that as we see more and more extreme SST from climate change, there are still other factors which can completely disrupt tropical cyclogenesis.

https://i.imgur.com/06UKp8d.png
https://i.imgur.com/bAXTWOk.png

That’s the highest OHC I’ve ever seen in the Caribbean. If anything manages to form and not immediately run into Central America, it could become a major. It is November, however. A look like that in early October with signs on the ensembles would be much more concerning.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#4198 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sat Nov 06, 2021 8:48 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:We are getting very close to surpassing 1977 for the longest drought of late season major tropical cyclones WORLDWIDE!!!! I would have to imagine that at least one basin would produce something of at least Cat 3 strength this month, but we'll see. This is so extraordinary.


Probably only the WPAC might spawn something of that strength before the year ends but then again it's 2021. :D

As for the Atlantic, I think it's probably done for the year in terms of major hurricanes or even hurricanes.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#4199 Postby AlphaToOmega » Sun Nov 07, 2021 6:22 am

All I can say is that I am doing an analysis on every hurricane season from 1950 to 2021, seeing why October and November 2021 were such great disappointments despite a La Niña.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#4200 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Nov 07, 2021 9:59 am

It's amazing how much the La Niña this year did absolutely nothing to promote late-season activity. The basin has behaved like an El Niño since early October. Also, the season only surpassed 140 ACE because of Sam, without Sam, I don't even know if we would've crossed 100.
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