Most common setup (ENSO/PDO/NAO) for Cat-4+ hits on South Florida

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Re: Most common setup (ENSO/PDO/NAO) for Cat-4+ hits on South Florida

#21 Postby toad strangler » Thu Apr 08, 2021 10:38 am

Post 2000 East Coast FL landfalls

Katrina Cat 1
Jeanne Cat 3
Frances Cat 2

Matthew - NARROW MISS Cat 4
Dorian - NARROW MISS Cat 5

All from the East. Jeanne and Frances less than two weeks apart which still blows my mind to this day. It'll happen again. FL does get hit from the East. tick tock tick tock tick tock
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Re: Most common setup (ENSO/PDO/NAO) for Cat-4+ hits on South Florida

#22 Postby Shell Mound » Fri Apr 09, 2021 1:21 am

toad strangler wrote:Post 2000 East Coast FL landfalls

Katrina Cat 1
Jeanne Cat 3
Frances Cat 2

Matthew - NARROW MISS Cat 4
Dorian - NARROW MISS Cat 5

All from the East. Jeanne and Frances less than two weeks apart which still blows my mind to this day. It'll happen again. FL does get hit from the East. tick tock tick tock tick tock

Regarding MH return periodsdefined as passage within 50 n mi of a particular point—I have extracted the following data for these areas in South Florida:

CITY..........................................RETURN.....LAST MH................................DUE
  1. Cape Sable..............17yr..........Irma (2017)......................2034
  2. Homestead..............17yr..........Andrew (1992).................2009
  3. Marco Island............18yr..........Irma (2017).....................2035
  4. Miami......................14yr..........Wilma (2005)...................2019
  5. West Palm Beach......16yr..........Matthew (2016)...............2032

Based on the data, then, only the most densely populated part of South Florida (Homestead–City of Miami) is technically overdue for a close MH passage.

Of the sixteen MH to pass within 50 n mi of Miami since 1851, all but two made landfall either in South Florida or on the neighbouring Florida Keys.
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Re: Most common setup (ENSO/PDO/NAO) for Cat-4+ hits on South Florida

#23 Postby DestinHurricane » Fri Apr 09, 2021 7:35 am

Shell Mound wrote:
toad strangler wrote:Post 2000 East Coast FL landfalls

Katrina Cat 1
Jeanne Cat 3
Frances Cat 2

Matthew - NARROW MISS Cat 4
Dorian - NARROW MISS Cat 5

All from the East. Jeanne and Frances less than two weeks apart which still blows my mind to this day. It'll happen again. FL does get hit from the East. tick tock tick tock tick tock

Regarding MH return periodsdefined as passage within 50 n mi of a particular point—I have extracted the following data for these areas in South Florida:

CITY..........................................RETURN.....LAST MH................................DUE
  1. Cape Sable..............17yr..........Irma (2017)......................2034
  2. Homestead..............17yr..........Andrew (1992).................2009
  3. Marco Island............18yr..........Irma (2017).....................2035
  4. Miami......................14yr..........Wilma (2005)...................2019
  5. West Palm Beach......16yr..........Matthew (2016)...............2032

Based on the data, then, only the most densely populated part of South Florida (Homestead–City of Miami) is technically overdue for a close MH passage.

Of the sixteen MH to pass within 50 n mi of Miami since 1851, all but two made landfall either in South Florida or on the neighbouring Florida Keys.


What is it for Fort Lauderdale?
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Re: Most common setup (ENSO/PDO/NAO) for Cat-4+ hits on South Florida

#24 Postby Shell Mound » Fri Apr 09, 2021 10:08 am

DestinHurricane wrote:
Shell Mound wrote:
toad strangler wrote:Post 2000 East Coast FL landfalls

Katrina Cat 1
Jeanne Cat 3
Frances Cat 2

Matthew - NARROW MISS Cat 4
Dorian - NARROW MISS Cat 5

All from the East. Jeanne and Frances less than two weeks apart which still blows my mind to this day. It'll happen again. FL does get hit from the East. tick tock tick tock tick tock

Regarding MH return periodsdefined as passage within 50 n mi of a particular point—I have extracted the following data for these areas in South Florida:

CITY..........................................RETURN.....LAST MH................................DUE
  1. Cape Sable..............17yr..........Irma (2017)......................2034
  2. Homestead..............17yr..........Andrew (1992).................2009
  3. Marco Island............18yr..........Irma (2017).....................2035
  4. Miami......................14yr..........Wilma (2005)...................2019
  5. West Palm Beach......16yr..........Matthew (2016)...............2032

Based on the data, then, only the most densely populated part of South Florida (Homestead–City of Miami) is technically overdue for a close MH passage.

Of the sixteen MH to pass within 50 n mi of Miami since 1851, all but two made landfall either in South Florida or on the neighbouring Florida Keys.

What is it for Fort Lauderdale?

Fort Lauderdale is not listed among the points on the return-rate chart, so I did not include it, but its return rate (range) is probably similar to the others’.
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Re: Most common setup (ENSO/PDO/NAO) for Cat-4+ hits on South Florida

#25 Postby Nuno » Fri Apr 09, 2021 10:46 am

tolakram wrote:
Blown Away wrote:
Nuno wrote:
True, which is why we're discussing what the most common setups allow for an Andrew or 1926 type event.

I agree with you that South FL isn't as vulnerable to storms as people assume. Aside from protection from recurves, the Greater Antilles have shielded SFL from far worse impacts. It really is like threading a needle to hit Florida hard from the east. Even Irma couldn't fully do it without running into Cuba and weakening some. I want to see which geographic region has experienced more hurricane-force conditions since 2000 (or another arbitrary date): the OBX or SFL? I'd wager the OBX has been under far more hurricane warnings but I haven't done the research.


https://i.imgur.com/mn9dGn8.jpg
I guess it depends how narrow you define SFL, 17 Majors within 60NM is very impressive, no other area along the US Coast is even close.


Needs to be CAT 4 or higher, for some reason. :) Good point though. Also Irma doesn't count though it shows up in the numbers since it was a cat 4 just prior to landfall. Shell incorrectly said it was not in the Miami CWA. It was, but at cat 3.

https://i.imgur.com/gqRLmu6.png

https://i.imgur.com/4FWlV4l.png

11 storms. 12 if Irma is counted.

https://bit.ly/2Q257Uf


You'd be hard pressed to find many South Floridians that can even find Hendry or Glades county on an unlabeled map. It may be within Miami's CWA but Shell is likely looking at what demographically or culturally is SFL. Glades/Hendry isn't and that skews the numbers of storms that we are looking at affect coastal SFL
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Re: Most common setup (ENSO/PDO/NAO) for Cat-4+ hits on South Florida

#26 Postby DestinHurricane » Fri Apr 09, 2021 11:13 am

These "return periods" are not really a good measure for south florida hits. It includes storms that go into the gulf, don't make landfall at all in Florida, and some other scenarios due to how S. FL sits. It would be a good data point for a place like the Panhandle where storms have 1 way in and make landfall somewhere along the same coast.

I've defined these storms as making landfall on South Florida as major hurricanes since 1900.

1992 Andrew
1950 King
1949 Boynton beach
1947 Fort Lauderdale
1945 Homestead
1933 Jupiter
1928 great Okeechobee
1926 Great Miami

So, S.FL averages a landfall every 15 years. Right now its been 28 years, so it'd fair to say south Florida is in a drought as far as major hurricanes go.

I messed with this map enough to only show these storms: https://coast.noaa.gov/hurricanes/#map= ... UiOnRydWV9

You can see that all of them with the exception of King formed in the MDR.

So yes, an active MDR certainly raises the probability of a S. FL hit.
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Re: Most common setup (ENSO/PDO/NAO) for Cat-4+ hits on South Florida

#27 Postby SFLcane » Fri Apr 09, 2021 1:08 pm

DestinHurricane wrote:These "return periods" are not really a good measure for south florida hits. It includes storms that go into the gulf, don't make landfall at all in Florida, and some other scenarios due to how S. FL sits. It would be a good data point for a place like the Panhandle where storms have 1 way in and make landfall somewhere along the same coast.

I've defined these storms as making landfall on South Florida as major hurricanes since 1900.

1992 Andrew
1950 King
1949 Boynton beach
1947 Fort Lauderdale
1945 Homestead
1933 Jupiter
1928 great Okeechobee
1926 Great Miami

So, S.FL averages a landfall every 15 years. Right now its been 28 years, so it'd fair to say south Florida is in a drought as far as major hurricanes go.

I messed with this map enough to only show these storms: https://coast.noaa.gov/hurricanes/#map= ... UiOnRydWV9

You can see that all of them with the exception of King formed in the MDR.

So yes, an active MDR certainly raises the probability of a S. FL hit.


Sure, or we could have another 2010 we’re they all recurve.
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Re: Most common setup (ENSO/PDO/NAO) for Cat-4+ hits on South Florida

#28 Postby Shell Mound » Sat Apr 10, 2021 12:26 pm

DestinHurricane wrote:I've defined these storms as making landfall on South Florida as major hurricanes since 1900.

1992 Andrew
1950 King
1949 Boynton beach
1947 Fort Lauderdale
1945 Homestead
1933 Jupiter
1928 great Okeechobee
1926 Great Miami

What’s fascinating about all this is the fact that most of these hits, aside from Andrew, occurred prior to the major postwar boom in metropolitan South Florida’s population. I am not implying conspiracies or anything supernatural, of course, but I’ve always noted how the MH drought coincides almost exactly with the period in which most people have moved to Miami-Dade, Broward, and/or Palm Beach counties. In 1992 Homestead was just a rural agricultural community, apart from the AFB, but it is now solidly part of Greater Miami. Even so, Andrew permanently altered the landscape and demographics of South Florida, given the exodus of residents northward from South Dade. Given that South Florida was very sparsely populated prior to 1900, probably many other MH occurred in the nineteenth century that went unrecorded. So the recent MH drought probably is as anomalous as it seems to be.

Even wxman57 noted elsewhere on this forum that hurricane landfalls on the mainland U.S. seem to be happening less frequently in recent years than earlier in the twentieth century. On the other hand, more of the hits that do occur now take place in single seasons (“spurts”), i.e., 2004, 2005, and 2020. So I wonder if the MH drought in South Florida might end with two or more MH hits in the same season, as if to compensate for the long hiatus beforehand. Imagine two major hurricanes, including at least one high-end Cat-4+, striking metropolitan South Florida in the same year. That might sound outlandish, but Mother Nature tends to achieve equilibrium, one way or another, so maybe something like that is “in the cards” if/when the drought finally dissipates. After all, both FL (Dennis, Wilma) and LA (Katrina, Rita) each sustained two MH impacts in 2005. So it is definitely possible.

(In fact, the great September hurricanes of 1926 and 1928 were each preceded by weaker hurricanes in July 1926 and August 1928, respectively.)
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Re: Most common setup (ENSO/PDO/NAO) for Cat-4+ hits on South Florida

#29 Postby Gums » Sat Apr 10, 2021 1:27 pm

Salute!

Until last week, ENSO looked like a weak Nina, and that has historically encouraged more storms on the southerly tracks and into the Gulf.

Now, looks like Nina weakening and we could wind up with a "neutral" temp in the eastern Pacific. Here in the Panhandle, we like Nino, as he usually forces the storms further north. If we have a neutral ENSO or even a weak Nina, I feel we will get a hit on the south part of the peninsula ( Ft Lauderdale and south) as well as a half dozen in the Gulf.

I gotta find a good ocean temp record for 1995, as we had many storms but most went around in circles south of Bermuda and east of the Bahamas. Then we had two hit us 60 days apart - Erin and Opal.

We shall see.

Gums sends...
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Re: Most common setup (ENSO/PDO/NAO) for Cat-4+ hits on South Florida

#30 Postby SFLcane » Sat Apr 10, 2021 5:13 pm

Neutral/Weak El-Nino years have the greatest number of tropical landfalls in SFL.
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Re: Most common setup (ENSO/PDO/NAO) for Cat-4+ hits on South Florida

#31 Postby Shell Mound » Sun Apr 25, 2021 3:03 am

Shell Mound wrote:Cat-4+ landfalling hurricanes in South Florida (1851–2020)
  1. 18 Sept 1926 — 125 knots — Miami–Dade County
  2. 17 Sept 1928 — 125 knots — Palm Beach County
  3. 15 Sept 1945 — 115 knots — Miami–Dade County
  4. 17 Sept 1947 — 115 knots — Broward County
  5. 22 Sept 1948 — 115 knots — Collier County
  6. 26 Aug 1949 — 115 knots — Palm Beach County
  7. 18 Oct 1950 — 115 knots — Miami–Dade County
  8. 24 Aug 1992 — 145 knots — Miami–Dade County
n = 8
Earliest: 24 Aug
Latest: 18 Oct

All but two of these major hurricanes developed in the MDR. The remainder developed over the western Caribbean Sea.

Avg. ASO ENSO: -0,466944444
Avg. ASO PDO: -0,098425
Avg. ASO NAO: 0,491666667

Same as above, but for years w/ ≥ 125 knots:
...: -0,233703704
...: 0,9486
...: 0,468888889

ENSO (NINO 3.4), PDO (ERSSTV4), and NAO (CRU) taken from this source

Favoured setup for Cat-4+ impacts: Weakly -ENSO, neutral PDO, weakly +NAO
Favoured setup for ≥ 125-knot impacts: cool neutral ENSO, moderately +PDO, weakly +NAO

Image
Above: current long-range ECMWF SST forecast for the period JAS 2021.

Note that the forecast calls for a neutral PDO, east-based warm neutral ENSO, -AMO (note the warm Gulf of Guinea), and a neutral IOD.

A favourable setup for Category-4+ impacts on South Florida—that is, the NWS Miami’s CWA—would look more like the following image:

Image

Basically, the AMO needs to be more positive, and the ENSO needs to be west-based rather than east-based warm neutral.
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Re: Most common setup (ENSO/PDO/NAO) for Cat-4+ hits on South Florida

#32 Postby Shell Mound » Fri Apr 30, 2021 1:59 am

DestinHurricane wrote:I've defined these storms as making landfall on South Florida as major hurricanes since 1900.

1992 Andrew
1950 King
1949 Boynton beach
1947 Fort Lauderdale
1945 Homestead
1933 Jupiter
1928 great Okeechobee
1926 Great Miami

Aside from 1926 and 1933, most of theses seasons did not feature MH activity in the Caribbean. Hurricane San Felipe II (the 1928 Okeechobee hurricane) did enter the northeastern Caribbean as a MH, but most of the others occurred over the Atlantic. So the most intense TC activity tended to avoid the Caribbean in most of these years. (Note that hurricanes Easy and King (1950) did form over and attain H status in the Caribbean, but did not attain MH intensity until close to the Florida peninsula.) Given that current forecasts suggest less activity in the Caribbean vs. 2020, it is interesting to note that seasons with MH impacts on South FL, as defined above, tended to feature less MH activity in the Caribbean as well. This makes sense, given that the NAO tends to be relatively negative during Caribbean-and-Gulf-centric years, whereas years with MH impacts on the Florida peninsula and/or the East Coast tend to feature a relatively neutral or positive NAO. Of the MH impacts enumerated above, only the 1926 Miami hurricane, the 1947 Fort Lauderdale hurricane, and Andrew (1992) crossed into the Gulf after striking South FL as MH. The remainder moved or curved generally northward over the interior of the peninsula after impacting South FL as MH. So if a MH were to impact South FL in 2021, it would be statistically more likely to curve inland over the peninsula rather than continue into the Gulf, given history (climatology). Therefore, maybe the risk of a MH impact on South FL will be higher in 2021 than it was last year, and possibly the highest since 2017.
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Re: Most common setup (ENSO/PDO/NAO) for Cat-4+ hits on South Florida

#33 Postby tolakram » Fri Apr 30, 2021 8:54 am

Do you think there's enough data to determine statistically likely?
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Re: Most common setup (ENSO/PDO/NAO) for Cat-4+ hits on South Florida

#34 Postby Shell Mound » Fri Apr 30, 2021 11:48 am

tolakram wrote:Do you think there's enough data to determine statistically likely?

Perhaps not, but a combination of data + meteorological logic seems to support it.
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Re: Most common setup (ENSO/PDO/NAO) for Cat-4+ hits on South Florida

#35 Postby AlphaToOmega » Fri Aug 27, 2021 3:52 pm

The data set for this is very limited, so it is healthy be skeptical of these findings. However, based on the data available, this is the best that can be done.
Compiling a list of South Florida landfalling Category IV+ hurricanes from 1950 to 2020 (the years in which reliable ENSO and NAO data is available), only five results are available: Hurricanes King (1950 October), Donna (1960 September), Andrew (1992 August), Charley (2004 August), and Irma (2017 September).
For 1950 October, the ENSO was negative; the PDO was negative; the NAO was positive.
For 1960 September, the ENSO was negative; the PDO was negative; the NAO was positive.
For 1992 August, the ENSO was positive; the PDO was positive; the NAO was positive.
For 2004 August, the ENSO was positive; the PDO was positive; the NAO was negative.
For 2017 September, the ENSO was negative; the PDO was positive; the NAO was negative.
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Re: Most common setup (ENSO/PDO/NAO) for Cat-4+ hits on South Florida

#36 Postby JPmia » Sat Aug 28, 2021 10:14 am

Well if only you could go back to the 1940s and determine the conditions that set up all of the major hurricane hits to South Florida.. that may give you a better idea.
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Re: Most common setup (ENSO/PDO/NAO) for Cat-4+ hits on South Florida

#37 Postby FireRat » Tue Aug 31, 2021 2:24 am

JPmia wrote:Well if only you could go back to the 1940s and determine the conditions that set up all of the major hurricane hits to South Florida.. that may give you a better idea.


The 1940s was nuts for South FL indeed. Would be interesting to know what kind of weather patterns dominated that decade during ASO. The late 1920s too stick out like a sore thumb, especially 1926, 1928 and 1929.
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Re: Most common setup (ENSO/PDO/NAO) for Cat-4+ hits on South Florida

#38 Postby AtlanticWind » Tue Aug 31, 2021 2:34 am

JPmia wrote:Well if only you could go back to the 1940s and determine the conditions that set up all of the major hurricane hits to South Florida.. that may give you a better idea.


I am pretty sure the Aliens we captured after they crashed at Roswell have all the
satellite and weather data from observing the earth during that time.
We just need to go to Area 51... :D
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Re: Most common setup (ENSO/PDO/NAO) for Cat-4+ hits on South Florida

#39 Postby FireRat » Wed Sep 01, 2021 2:28 pm

AtlanticWind wrote:
JPmia wrote:Well if only you could go back to the 1940s and determine the conditions that set up all of the major hurricane hits to South Florida.. that may give you a better idea.


I am pretty sure the Aliens we captured after they crashed at Roswell have all the
satellite and weather data from observing the earth during that time.
We just need to go to Area 51... :D


Haha holy cow can you guys imagine if Aliens have satellite imagery and other data for Atlantic hurricanes since the beginning of time, we'd be able to literally see storms like the 1780 hurricanes, 1935 Labor Day and other monumental historic monsters! Hell, that would be awesome!
:lol: :1:
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Re: Most common setup (ENSO/PDO/NAO) for Cat-4+ hits on South Florida

#40 Postby Category5Kaiju » Mon Nov 21, 2022 12:06 am

Hmm, let's see. Hurricane Ian. -ENSO (third year La Nina, weak to moderate strength). +NAO. -PDO.
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