Most common setup (ENSO/PDO/NAO) for Cat-4+ hits on South Florida

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Most common setup (ENSO/PDO/NAO) for Cat-4+ hits on South Florida

#1 Postby Shell Mound » Fri Jan 22, 2021 8:26 am

Does anyone know what combination, if any, of ENSO, PDO, and NAO tends to show up most often, historically, in association with Cat-4+ hits on South Florida?

By South Florida, I am referring to the NWS Miami’s CWA, which includes Broward, Collier, Glades, Hendry, Miami-Dade, Monroe (mainland only), and Palm Beach counties.

Perhaps someone like LarryWx has access to the data and is able to generously share the information. I am interested in data as far back as 1851 (start of HURDAT).

Thank you!
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Re: Most common setup (ENSO/PDO/NAO) for Cat-4+ hits on South Florida

#2 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Fri Jan 22, 2021 8:30 am

If you look at the year of 2004 I believe that may answer your question.
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Re: Most common setup (ENSO/PDO/NAO) for Cat-4+ hits on South Florida

#3 Postby Shell Mound » Tue Feb 02, 2021 11:29 am

Cat-4+ landfalling hurricanes in South Florida (1851–2020)
  1. 18 Sept 1926 — 125 knots — Miami–Dade County
  2. 17 Sept 1928 — 125 knots — Palm Beach County
  3. 15 Sept 1945 — 115 knots — Miami–Dade County
  4. 17 Sept 1947 — 115 knots — Broward County
  5. 22 Sept 1948 — 115 knots — Collier County
  6. 26 Aug 1949 — 115 knots — Palm Beach County
  7. 18 Oct 1950 — 115 knots — Miami–Dade County
  8. 24 Aug 1992 — 145 knots — Miami–Dade County
n = 8
Earliest: 24 Aug
Latest: 18 Oct

All but two of these major hurricanes developed in the MDR. The remainder developed over the western Caribbean Sea.

Avg. ASO ENSO: -0,466944444
Avg. ASO PDO: -0,098425
Avg. ASO NAO: 0,491666667

Same as above, but for years w/ ≥ 125 knots:
...: -0,233703704
...: 0,9486
...: 0,468888889

ENSO (NINO 3.4), PDO (ERSSTV4), and NAO (CRU) taken from this source

Favoured setup for Cat-4+ impacts: Weakly -ENSO, neutral PDO, weakly +NAO
Favoured setup for ≥ 125-knot impacts: cool neutral ENSO, moderately +PDO, weakly +NAO

Overall, either cool neutral ENSO or weak Niña conditions combined with a neutral to moderately +PDO and a weakly +NAO is the most conducive range.

Hurricane impacts vs. evolution of ENSO:
1925–7: +ENSO to -neutral to +neutral (ASO); LA (1), peninsular FL (2)
1928–30: -neutral to back-to-back +ENSO (ASO); TX (1), peninsular FL (3)
1942–5: continuous Niña (ASO); TX (4), peninsular FL (3), NC (2), NY/RI (1)
1947–50: continuous Niña (ASO); TX (2), LA (2), AL (1), peninsular FL (7), GA (1)
1991–3: +ENSO to -neutral to +ENSO (ASO); FL (1), RI (1)
Last edited by Shell Mound on Tue Feb 02, 2021 12:13 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: Most common setup (ENSO/PDO/NAO) for Cat-4+ hits on South Florida

#4 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Tue Feb 02, 2021 11:48 am

Yeah, 2004.

Are you missing 2017 Irma and 2004 Charley?
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Re: Most common setup (ENSO/PDO/NAO) for Cat-4+ hits on South Florida

#5 Postby Shell Mound » Tue Feb 02, 2021 12:11 pm

InfernoFlameCat wrote:Yeah, 2004.

Are you missing 2017 Irma and 2004 Charley?

Those years did not feature landfalls within the Miami CWA, which I defined as South Florida.
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Re: Most common setup (ENSO/PDO/NAO) for Cat-4+ hits on South Florida

#6 Postby Nuno » Tue Mar 02, 2021 10:50 am

It will never not be remarkable that SFL has had one major hurricane landfall (as defined by Shell's criteria) since 1950, yet SEVEN in the 25 preceding years.
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Re: Most common setup (ENSO/PDO/NAO) for Cat-4+ hits on South Florida

#7 Postby Shell Mound » Thu Mar 11, 2021 2:24 pm

Nuno wrote:It will never not be remarkable that SFL has had one major hurricane landfall (as defined by Shell's criteria) since 1950, yet SEVEN in the 25 preceding years.

I think the FL peninsula could be at greater-than-expected risk in 2021 if and only if ENSO and the PDO end up deviating toward neutral instead of solidly negative.
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Re: Most common setup (ENSO/PDO/NAO) for Cat-4+ hits on South Florida

#8 Postby Shell Mound » Sat Mar 13, 2021 1:03 pm

Shell Mound wrote:
Nuno wrote:It will never not be remarkable that SFL has had one major hurricane landfall (as defined by Shell's criteria) since 1950, yet SEVEN in the 25 preceding years.

I think the FL peninsula could be at greater-than-expected risk in 2021 if and only if ENSO and the PDO end up deviating toward neutral instead of solidly negative.

On the other hand, of the eight Cat-4+ landfalling hurricanes in South Florida (1851–2020), all but two—1948 #8 and King (1950)—initially developed in the MDR. Of the eight cases, all except Andrew (1992) occurred prior to the satellite era, King being the most recent prior to Andrew. Of the six cases that initially formed in the MDR, four became hurricanes while in the deep tropics, and since these occurred prior to the satellite era, they very likely were already majors prior to exiting the MDR. The past three seasons only featured one major hurricane in the MDR, Lorenzo (2019), so even if ENSO/PDO were to end up closer to neutral, the large-scale climatic forces are unfavourable for MH activity in the MDR, and since most Cat-4+ hits on South FL already likely attained MH status in the MDR, an environment that disfavours MH activity in the MDR also tends to reduce the threat of a Cat-4+ impact on South Florida. So I still think this year will likely deliver its worst impacts to places other than South FL, unless the MDR ends up being drastically more conducive to MH activity.
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Re: Most common setup (ENSO/PDO/NAO) for Cat-4+ hits on South Florida

#9 Postby toad strangler » Sat Mar 13, 2021 2:21 pm

Shell Mound wrote:
Shell Mound wrote:
Nuno wrote:It will never not be remarkable that SFL has had one major hurricane landfall (as defined by Shell's criteria) since 1950, yet SEVEN in the 25 preceding years.

So I still think this year will likely deliver its worst impacts to places other than South FL, unless the MDR ends up being drastically more conducive to MH activity.


S FL is a postage stamp sized pc of real estate within the basin. Making this assessment is a safe bet almost all the time.
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Re: Most common setup (ENSO/PDO/NAO) for Cat-4+ hits on South Florida

#10 Postby Hurricane Mike » Mon Mar 22, 2021 4:29 pm

South Florida has dodged Irma and Dorian in the last few years. Both were certain Cat 4+hits.
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Re: Most common setup (ENSO/PDO/NAO) for Cat-4+ hits on South Florida

#11 Postby toad strangler » Mon Mar 22, 2021 4:41 pm

Hurricane Mike wrote:South Florida has dodged Irma and Dorian in the last few years. Both were certain Cat 4+hits.


Irma hit SW FL hard. Not a miss. But if you are gong to shrink the size of real estate even more and include just Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach counties then the odds get even better of no direct hits. Easy forecast! :ggreen: .... and I get it. South FL generally means just those three SE counties.
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Re: Most common setup (ENSO/PDO/NAO) for Cat-4+ hits on South Florida

#12 Postby tolakram » Tue Mar 23, 2021 9:59 am

I really don't understand the significance of Miami's CWA. Why this small area? Why mainland only?

How do the stats of this area compare with the stats of any other area along the coast?

If anything I think a south east Florida hit is probably the most unlikely area to get hit unless a storm forms close to land or conditions are perfect enough for rapid development. Most longer tracks will take a storm over the shredder, up the east coast, or well south of Florida.

https://bit.ly/3r9CHo9

You can also filter by ENSO (Andrew is officially under Neutral). Most are unknown, unfortunately.
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Re: Most common setup (ENSO/PDO/NAO) for Cat-4+ hits on South Florida

#13 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Tue Mar 23, 2021 12:20 pm

Hurricane Mike wrote:South Florida has dodged Irma and Dorian in the last few years. Both were certain Cat 4+hits.


I can't begin to describe how narrow of a bullet Miami/SFL managed to dodge with Dorian. Imagine if Dorian had parked over Miami for days instead of the Bahamas at peak intensity.
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Re: Most common setup (ENSO/PDO/NAO) for Cat-4+ hits on South Florida

#14 Postby Shell Mound » Sun Apr 04, 2021 9:40 am

tolakram wrote:I really don't understand the significance of Miami's CWA. Why this small area? Why mainland only?

The mainland is much more densely populated than the Florida Keys. Plus, the Keys belong to a different CWA, Key West’s, so I assume climatology varies a bit.
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Re: Most common setup (ENSO/PDO/NAO) for Cat-4+ hits on South Florida

#15 Postby Blown Away » Mon Apr 05, 2021 9:19 am

Shell Mound wrote:
tolakram wrote:I really don't understand the significance of Miami's CWA. Why this small area? Why mainland only?

The mainland is much more densely populated than the Florida Keys. Plus, the Keys belong to a different CWA, Key West’s, so I assume climatology varies a bit.

Image
This red square is postage stamp compared to the Atlantic basin but you would be hard pressed to find a similar sized area in the Atlantic basin that has had the concentration of hurricanes/storms that have impacted land like "Southern Peninsula" Florida. It's pretty remarkable IMO. Not sure if conditions are really different causing more recent impacts just N of Miami or on SW FL coast compared to the @mid 1900's when many hurricanes were impacting Miami Dade directly.
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Re: Most common setup (ENSO/PDO/NAO) for Cat-4+ hits on South Florida

#16 Postby Nuno » Mon Apr 05, 2021 7:01 pm

Blown Away wrote:
Shell Mound wrote:
tolakram wrote:I really don't understand the significance of Miami's CWA. Why this small area? Why mainland only?

The mainland is much more densely populated than the Florida Keys. Plus, the Keys belong to a different CWA, Key West’s, so I assume climatology varies a bit.

https://i.imgur.com/S7YumH2.jpg
This red square is postage stamp compared to the Atlantic basin but you would be hard pressed to find a similar sized area in the Atlantic basin that has had the concentration of hurricanes/storms that have impacted land like "Southern Peninsula" Florida. It's pretty remarkable IMO. Not sure if conditions are really different causing more recent impacts just N of Miami or on SW FL coast compared to the @mid 1900's when many hurricanes were impacting Miami Dade directly.


I'm beginning to subscribe to the idea that we will never know due to the small population of SFL prior to 1896. The amount of landfalls pre-1950 in SEFL certainly appear anomalous much in the way the drought between King and Katrina where only three storms really made landfall or threatened SEFL seriously seems equally unusual.

Jay Barnes' book on hurricane history in Florida is good but who knows how many landfalls were missed in SEFL up until the late 19th century.
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Re: Most common setup (ENSO/PDO/NAO) for Cat-4+ hits on South Florida

#17 Postby tolakram » Tue Apr 06, 2021 10:23 am

I think it's a pattern. If you get a year where the pattern is a certain track then you might get a lot of hits in a small area. Similar to LA last year. The south east coast of Florida is not a prime target zone for major hurricanes, IMO, because you really need a unique track or just right conditions (like Andrew) to put a major into that area. I have no hard science to back this up, just looking at tracks and patterns. If a strong storm is east of Florida there is a very high probability it will recurve up the coast.
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Re: Most common setup (ENSO/PDO/NAO) for Cat-4+ hits on South Florida

#18 Postby Nuno » Tue Apr 06, 2021 1:05 pm

tolakram wrote:I think it's a pattern. If you get a year where the pattern is a certain track then you might get a lot of hits in a small area. Similar to LA last year. The south east coast of Florida is not a prime target zone for major hurricanes, IMO, because you really need a unique track or just right conditions (like Andrew) to put a major into that area. I have no hard science to back this up, just looking at tracks and patterns. If a strong storm is east of Florida there is a very high probability it will recurve up the coast.


True, which is why we're discussing what the most common setups allow for an Andrew or 1926 type event.

I agree with you that South FL isn't as vulnerable to storms as people assume. Aside from protection from recurves, the Greater Antilles have shielded SFL from far worse impacts. It really is like threading a needle to hit Florida hard from the east. Even Irma couldn't fully do it without running into Cuba and weakening some. I want to see which geographic region has experienced more hurricane-force conditions since 2000 (or another arbitrary date): the OBX or SFL? I'd wager the OBX has been under far more hurricane warnings but I haven't done the research.
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Re: Most common setup (ENSO/PDO/NAO) for Cat-4+ hits on South Florida

#19 Postby Blown Away » Wed Apr 07, 2021 7:33 am

Nuno wrote:
tolakram wrote:I think it's a pattern. If you get a year where the pattern is a certain track then you might get a lot of hits in a small area. Similar to LA last year. The south east coast of Florida is not a prime target zone for major hurricanes, IMO, because you really need a unique track or just right conditions (like Andrew) to put a major into that area. I have no hard science to back this up, just looking at tracks and patterns. If a strong storm is east of Florida there is a very high probability it will recurve up the coast.


True, which is why we're discussing what the most common setups allow for an Andrew or 1926 type event.

I agree with you that South FL isn't as vulnerable to storms as people assume. Aside from protection from recurves, the Greater Antilles have shielded SFL from far worse impacts. It really is like threading a needle to hit Florida hard from the east. Even Irma couldn't fully do it without running into Cuba and weakening some. I want to see which geographic region has experienced more hurricane-force conditions since 2000 (or another arbitrary date): the OBX or SFL? I'd wager the OBX has been under far more hurricane warnings but I haven't done the research.


Image
I guess it depends how narrow you define SFL, 17 Majors within 60NM is very impressive, no other area along the US Coast is even close.
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Re: Most common setup (ENSO/PDO/NAO) for Cat-4+ hits on South Florida

#20 Postby tolakram » Wed Apr 07, 2021 8:59 am

Blown Away wrote:
Nuno wrote:
tolakram wrote:I think it's a pattern. If you get a year where the pattern is a certain track then you might get a lot of hits in a small area. Similar to LA last year. The south east coast of Florida is not a prime target zone for major hurricanes, IMO, because you really need a unique track or just right conditions (like Andrew) to put a major into that area. I have no hard science to back this up, just looking at tracks and patterns. If a strong storm is east of Florida there is a very high probability it will recurve up the coast.


True, which is why we're discussing what the most common setups allow for an Andrew or 1926 type event.

I agree with you that South FL isn't as vulnerable to storms as people assume. Aside from protection from recurves, the Greater Antilles have shielded SFL from far worse impacts. It really is like threading a needle to hit Florida hard from the east. Even Irma couldn't fully do it without running into Cuba and weakening some. I want to see which geographic region has experienced more hurricane-force conditions since 2000 (or another arbitrary date): the OBX or SFL? I'd wager the OBX has been under far more hurricane warnings but I haven't done the research.


https://i.imgur.com/mn9dGn8.jpg
I guess it depends how narrow you define SFL, 17 Majors within 60NM is very impressive, no other area along the US Coast is even close.


Needs to be CAT 4 or higher, for some reason. :) Good point though. Also Irma doesn't count though it shows up in the numbers since it was a cat 4 just prior to landfall. Shell incorrectly said it was not in the Miami CWA. It was, but at cat 3.

Image

Image

11 storms. 12 if Irma is counted.

https://bit.ly/2Q257Uf
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