Average Date of the NATL Basin’s First Hurricane

[ncforecaster89]

Here’s a list of the average date of the first hurricane that developed (for each decade) during the past 50 years (1971-2020):

1971-1980: 7/29
1981-1990: 8/04
1991-2000: 8/03
2001-2010: 8/04
2011-2020: 7/31

Average date: 8/2

Average date of first “major” hurricane:

1971-1980: 8/28
1981-1990: 9/06
1991-2000: 8/17
2001-2010: 8/18
2011-2020: 8/31

Average date: 8/26

[ncforecaster89]

Date of first hurricane for each season of the past five decades:

2011: 08/22
2012: 06/21
2013: 09/11
2014: 07/02
2015: 08/20
2016: 08/24
2017: 08/09
2018: 07/06
2019: 07/13
2020: 07/25

2001: 09/08
2002: 09/11
2003: 07/15
2004: 08/03
2005: 07/05
2006: 08/26
2007: 08/16
2008: 07/07
2009: 08/16
2010: 06/29

1991: 08/17
1992: 08/22
1993: 08/26
1994: 08/17
1995: 06/04
1996: 07/07
1997: 07/12
1998: 08/21
1999: 08/20
2000: 08/05

1981: 08/20
1982: 06/03
1983: 08/16
1984: 09/10
1985: 07/24
1986: 06/26
1987: 08/22
1988: 08/09
1989: 08/31
1990: 07/28

1971: 08/06
1972: 06/18
1973: 07/03
1974: 08/28
1975: 07/27
1976: 08/07
1977: 08/30
1978: 08/08
1979: 07/10
1980: 08/02

Note: Earliest and latest H formations highlighted in bold.

June: 6 (12%)
July: 14 (28%)
August: 26 (52%)
September: 4 (8%)

20/50 First hurricane was a MH (40%)

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

Date of first hurricane for each season of the past five decades:

2016: 08/24

[snip]

Not to nitpick too harshly, but 2016's first hurricane was in January, thanks to the bizarreness of that year's Hurricane Alex [unless you're including it on the back end of 2015, which would be a little bit confusing].

[ncforecaster89]

Date of first hurricane for each season of the past five decades:

2016: 08/24

[snip]

Not to nitpick too harshly, but 2016's first hurricane was in January, thanks to the bizarreness of that year's Hurricane Alex [unless you're including it on the back end of 2015, which would be a little bit confusing].

Thanks for the comment, and I most certainly appreciate your attention to detail.

You’re technically correct about Alex’s January 2016 formation. Even so, there are two reasons I didn’t include it in this particular exercise. One, it was a very anomalous occurrence and not representative of the seasons first hurricane development. The other being that one could argue that such formations are more consistent with the prior season than the one that’s still 4.5 months away from its official start date.

[ncforecaster89]

Date of first “major” hurricane for each season of the past five decades:

2011: 8/24
2012: 9/06
2013: none
2014: 9/16
2015: 8/21
2016: 8/30
2017: 8/25
2018: 9/05
2019: 8/30
2020: 8/26

2001: 9/08
2002: 9/21
2003: 8/30
2004: 8/04
2005: 7/09
2006: 9/13
2007: 8/17
2008: 7/07
2009: 8/18
2010: 8/27

1991: 8/19
1992: 8/22
1993: 8/31
1994: none
1995: 8/11
1996: 7/09
1997: 9/08
1998: 8/23
1999: 8/21
2000: 8/12

1981: 9/06
1982: 9/17
1983: 8/18
1984: 9/11
1985: 8/31
1986: none
1987: 9/22
1988: 9/11
1989: 9/03
1990: 8/30

1971: 9/09
1972: none
1973: 9/22
1974: 8/30
1975: 8/30
1976: 8/08
1977: 9/01
1978: 9/01
1979: 8/27
1980: 8/03

Note: Earliest and latest MH formations highlighted in bold.

July: 3 (6%)
August: 26 (52%)
September: 17 (34%)
None: 4 (8%)