2021 TCRs

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

2021 TCRs

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 19, 2021 9:10 am

Already it will be a interesting TC report if we look what is going on with PTC / Claudette. Also,Tropical Storm Dolores made landfall as a 70 mph storm and the post season report will determine if it was at 70 mph or 75 mph. Let's see how many form and more important, how they go thru the data.

North Atlantic

Tropical Storm Ana
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL012021_Ana.pdf


Tropical Storm Bill
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL022021_Bill.pdf


Tropical Storm Claudette
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL032 ... udette.pdf


Tropical Storm Danny
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL042021_Danny.pdf


Hurricane Elsa
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL052021_Elsa.pdf


Tropical Storm Fred
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL062021_Fred.pdf


Hurricane Grace
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL072021_Grace.pdf


Hurricane Henri
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL082021_Henri.pdf


Hurricane Ida
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL092021_Ida.pdf


Tropical Storm Julian
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL112021_Julian.pdf


Tropical Storm Kate
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL102021_Kate.pdf


Hurricane Larry
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL122021_Larry.pdf


Tropical Storm Mindy
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL132021_Mindy.pdf


Hurricane Nicholas
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL142021_Nicholas.pdf


Tropical Storm Odette
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL152021_Odette.pdf


Tropical Storm Peter
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL162021_Peter.pdf


Tropical Storm Rose
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL172021_Rose.pdf


Hurricane Sam
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL182021_Sam.pdf


Subtropical Storm Teresa
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL192021_Teresa.pdf


Tropical Storm Victor
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL202021_Victor.pdf


Tropical Storm Wanda
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL212021_Wanda.pdf




East Pacific

Tropical Storm Andres
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP012021_Andres.pdf


Tropical Storm Blanca
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP022021_Blanca.pdf


Tropical Storm Carlos
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP032021_Carlos.pdf


Tropical Storm Dolores
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP042021_Dolores.pdf


Hurricane Enrique
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP052021_Enrique.pdf


Hurricane Felicia
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP062021_Felicia.pdf


Tropical Storm Guillermo
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP072 ... llermo.pdf


Tropical Storm Jimena
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP092021_Jimena.pdf


Hurricane Hilda
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP082021_Hilda.pdf


Tropical Storm Ignacio
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP102021_Ignacio.pdf


Tropical Storm Kevin
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP112021_Kevin.pdf


Hurricane Linda
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP122021_Linda.pdf


Tropical Storm Marty
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP132021_Marty.pdf

Hurricane Nora
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP142021_Nora.pdf


Hurricane Olaf
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP152021_Olaf.pdf


Hurricane Pamela
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP162021_Pamela.pdf


Hurricane Rick
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP172021_Rick.pdf


Tropical Storm Sandra
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP192021_Sandra.pdf


Tropical Storm Terry
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP182021_Terry.pdf





.
1 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

AlphaToOmega
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1448
Joined: Sat Jun 26, 2021 10:51 am
Location: Somewhere in Massachusetts

Re: 2021 TCR's - Tropical Storm Andres is up

#2 Postby AlphaToOmega » Fri Jul 02, 2021 7:44 am

0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2021 TCR's

#3 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 02, 2021 11:05 am

That was fast the release of the first one of 2021.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
galaxy401
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2297
Age: 28
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:04 pm
Location: Casa Grande, Arizona

Re: 2021 TCR's

#4 Postby galaxy401 » Fri Jul 02, 2021 11:18 am

Considering it was just a short-lived 40 mph storm that stayed out at sea, it probably was a very quick report to write up. :lol:
0 likes   
Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.

AlphaToOmega
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1448
Joined: Sat Jun 26, 2021 10:51 am
Location: Somewhere in Massachusetts

Re: 2021 TCR's

#5 Postby AlphaToOmega » Fri Jul 02, 2021 11:21 am

The report was published on June 30. If anything, I was slow to announce it.
0 likes   

User avatar
somethingfunny
ChatStaff
ChatStaff
Posts: 3926
Age: 35
Joined: Thu May 31, 2007 10:30 pm
Location: McKinney, Texas

Re: 2021 TCR's

#6 Postby somethingfunny » Fri Jul 02, 2021 1:51 pm

cycloneye wrote:That was fast the release of the first one of 2021.


The NHC remembers how much work they had to do on 2020's TCRs during their off-season so they'll be taking advantage of any lulls in activity to get ahead of the workload.
4 likes   
I am not a meteorologist, and any posts made by me are not official forecasts or to be interpreted as being intelligent. These posts are just my opinions and are probably silly opinions.

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2021 TCR's

#7 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 08, 2021 2:41 pm

We may have the reports from short-lived ones Bill and Danny soon.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

AlphaToOmega
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1448
Joined: Sat Jun 26, 2021 10:51 am
Location: Somewhere in Massachusetts

Re: 2021 TCR's

#8 Postby AlphaToOmega » Thu Jul 08, 2021 2:43 pm

cycloneye wrote:We may have the reports from short-lived ones Bill and Danny soon.

That seems unlikely. The first TCRs for the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season were released in September.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2021 TCR's

#9 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 08, 2021 2:44 pm

AlphaToOmega wrote:
cycloneye wrote:We may have the reports from short lived ones Bill and Danny soon.

That seems unlikely. The first TCRs for the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season were released in September.


Andrés was released on July 2.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

Category5Kaiju
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3344
Age: 22
Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
Location: Seattle

Re: 2021 TCR's

#10 Postby Category5Kaiju » Mon Jul 26, 2021 3:18 pm

We are definitely not getting Elsa's until 2022 imho
0 likes   
Unless explicitly stated, all information covered in my posts is based on my opinions and observations. Please refer to a professional meteorologist or an accredited weather research agency otherwise, especially if serious decisions must be made in the event of a potentially life-threatening tropical storm or hurricane.

User avatar
Hammy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5594
Age: 40
Joined: Fri May 25, 2012 5:25 pm
Contact:

Re: 2021 TCR's

#11 Postby Hammy » Mon Jul 26, 2021 3:33 pm

AlphaToOmega wrote:
cycloneye wrote:We may have the reports from short-lived ones Bill and Danny soon.

That seems unlikely. The first TCRs for the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season were released in September.


Last year was more consistently active than this year even at this point, so they'll probably have a bit more time to write them earlier on.
1 likes   
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2021 TCR's

#12 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 05, 2021 4:49 pm

Tropical Storm Ana is up.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2021 TCR's: TS Guillermo is up

#13 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 16, 2021 1:03 pm

Tropical Storm Guillermo report is up.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
galaxy401
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2297
Age: 28
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:04 pm
Location: Casa Grande, Arizona

Re: 2021 TCR's: TS Guillermo is up

#14 Postby galaxy401 » Mon Aug 16, 2021 1:26 pm

cycloneye wrote:Tropical Storm Guillermo report is up.


How do you know it got published? It's not listed on the NHC site.
0 likes   
Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2021 TCR's: TS Guillermo is up

#15 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 16, 2021 1:28 pm

galaxy401 wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Tropical Storm Guillermo report is up.


How do you know it got published? It's not listed on the NHC site.


They posted it on twitter first.

 https://twitter.com/NHC_Pacific/status/1427326911420801024


0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2021 TCR's: TS Guillermo is up

#16 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 16, 2021 2:21 pm

galaxy401 wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Tropical Storm Guillermo report is up.


How do you know it got published? It's not listed on the NHC site.


Finnally, is on their site.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
galaxy401
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2297
Age: 28
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:04 pm
Location: Casa Grande, Arizona

Re: 2021 TCR's: TS Guillermo is up

#17 Postby galaxy401 » Mon Aug 16, 2021 2:33 pm

Yeah I thought it was probably Twitter but the accounts I looked up didn't have the link. Didn't realize there's a specific account for just the EPAC.
0 likes   
Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2021 TCR's Update= Hurricane Felicia is up

#18 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 09, 2021 10:16 pm

The report of Hurricane Felicia is up with peak intensity of 125 kt. See it here.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8030
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: 2021 TCR's

#19 Postby aspen » Mon Sep 27, 2021 7:24 am

Here are all the post-season TCR adjustments I think are possible so far, based on what other users and pro mets said during the storm’s lifetime and what was observed:

Ana: complete
Bill: none
Claudette: maybe adjusting genesis/dissipation times
Danny: none
Elsa: time as a hurricane reduced; no hurricane peak in the Gulf; TD between Jamaica and Cuba
Fred: time as a remnant low extended
Grace: perhaps an open wave south of eastern DR; Yucatán landfall of 978mb as recorded by Josh Morgerman
Henri: initial peak as a hurricane at 15z/21z on August 18th
Ida: perhaps raising its Cuba landfall and Gulf peak winds by 5kt each
Kate: none
Julian: none
Larry: maybe some slight wind adjustments across its track but no change to peak intensity
Mindy: none
Nicholas: time as a post-landfall TD extended
Odette: hopefully a joke about how ugly it was lol
Peter: maybe slightly earlier genesis and dissipation
Rose: peak raised to 50 kt
Sam: BT adjusted to something like the following
—130kt/943mb at 00z 9/26
—135kt/935mb at 06z 9/26
—135kt/930mb at 12z 9/26
—140kt/924-927mb at 18z 9/26
—125kt/945mb at 00z 9/27
—Alternatively, the 18z intensity could be set to 135kt/929mb, and a Cat 5 peak would be assigned to be between advisories like Lorenzo’s peak
—Edit: much more significant weakening between 00z and 06z 9/27
5 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2021 TCR's: TS Bill is up

#20 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 27, 2021 3:07 pm

0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: KirbyDude25, MetroMike and 70 guests