2021 Cyclones Retirement: Ida -> Imani

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 33393
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: 2021 Cyclones Retirement

#61 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Nov 30, 2021 10:06 pm

What I estimate the retirement likelihood by name:

Ana - 0%
Bill - 0%
Claudette - 2%
Danny - 0%
Elsa - 5%
Fred - 3%
Grace - 20%
Henri - 3%
Ida - 100%
Julian - 0%
Kate - 0%
Larry - 10%
Mindy - 0%
Nicholas - 3%
Odette - 0%
Peter - 0%
Rose - 0%
Sam - 2%
Teresa - 0%
Victor - 0%
Wanda - 2%
0 likes   

Category5Kaiju
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3344
Age: 22
Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
Location: Seattle

Re: 2021 Cyclones Retirement

#62 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sun Dec 05, 2021 3:38 pm

Image

In my opinion, this will be the one storm most remembered from the 2021 season, and a legendary one too (sixth costliest Atlantic TC, nearly hit New Orleans directly, Cat 4 CONUS landfall, inflicted plentiful damage in the Northeast).

Inga, Ivy, Imogen, Ivory, or Ina I feel will be the WMO's choice for replacement, with my personal favorite for replacement being Imogen.
3 likes   
Unless explicitly stated, all information covered in my posts is based on my opinions and observations. Please refer to a professional meteorologist or an accredited weather research agency otherwise, especially if serious decisions must be made in the event of a potentially life-threatening tropical storm or hurricane.

Torino
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 83
Joined: Tue Sep 05, 2017 8:34 am

Re: 2021 Cyclones Retirement

#63 Postby Torino » Sun Dec 19, 2021 7:43 pm

"Rai" will probably be retired from the WPac lists. It will be the first replacement of a replacement name to get retired there (after Rananim and Fanapi).
0 likes   

NorthieStangl
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 65
Age: 38
Joined: Tue Oct 06, 2020 2:22 am
Location: Conyers, Georgia, United States
Contact:

Re: 2021 Cyclones Retirement

#64 Postby NorthieStangl » Mon Jan 10, 2022 4:50 pm

Ida is the only name from either Atlantic or East Pacific that warrant retirement.

As for West Pacific, in my opinion only 3 names are deserving of retirement: In-fa, Kompasu, and Rai. In Philippines, Odette definitely is a goner too, while Jolina is a good possibility.
0 likes   
Alberto 1994 Opal 1995 Jeanne 2004 Cindy & Dennis 2005 Irma 2017 Michael 2018 Zeta 2020

AlphaToOmega
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1448
Joined: Sat Jun 26, 2021 10:51 am
Location: Somewhere in Massachusetts

Re: 2021 Cyclones Retirement

#65 Postby AlphaToOmega » Mon Jan 10, 2022 4:58 pm

Chances of retirement for Atlantic names:

Ana: 0.1%
Bill: 0.1%
Claudette: 3.0%
Danny: 0.1%
Elsa: 20.0%
Fred: 15.0%
Grace: 8.0%
Henri: 25.0%
Ida: 99.9%
Julian: 0.1%
Kate: 0.1%
Larry: 50.0%
Mindy: 0.1%
Nicholas: 1.5%
Odette: 0.1%
Peter: 0.1%
Rose: 0.1%
Sam: 0.2%
Teresa: 0.1%
Victor: 0.1%
Wanda: 5.0%
0 likes   

Category5Kaiju
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3344
Age: 22
Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
Location: Seattle

Re: 2021 Cyclones Retirement

#66 Postby Category5Kaiju » Mon Jan 10, 2022 6:35 pm

AlphaToOmega wrote:Chances of retirement for Atlantic names:

Ana: 0.1%
Bill: 0.1%
Claudette: 3.0%
Danny: 0.1%
Elsa: 20.0%
Fred: 15.0%
Grace: 8.0%
Henri: 25.0%
Ida: 99.9%
Julian: 0.1%
Kate: 0.1%
Larry: 50.0%
Mindy: 0.1%
Nicholas: 1.5%
Odette: 0.1%
Peter: 0.1%
Rose: 0.1%
Sam: 0.2%
Teresa: 0.1%
Victor: 0.1%
Wanda: 5.0%


Personally, I'd significantly lower the chances of Larry, Nicholas, Henri, Fred, and Elsa. They did not do anywhere near the level of damage Ida did, and I'd raise Ida's chance to 100%.
0 likes   
Unless explicitly stated, all information covered in my posts is based on my opinions and observations. Please refer to a professional meteorologist or an accredited weather research agency otherwise, especially if serious decisions must be made in the event of a potentially life-threatening tropical storm or hurricane.

Shell Mound
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2434
Age: 31
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2017 3:39 pm
Location: St. Petersburg, FL → Scandinavia

Re: 2021 Cyclones Retirement

#67 Postby Shell Mound » Wed Jan 12, 2022 11:49 am

I think Ida is the only name that really merits retirement. Elsa, Fred, and Grace were far less calamitous in the Caribbean than a number of similar systems.
2 likes   
CVW / MiamiensisWx / Shell Mound
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

NotoSans
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1366
Age: 24
Joined: Sun Sep 27, 2015 1:15 am
Location: Hong Kong
Contact:

Re: 2021 Cyclones Retirement

#68 Postby NotoSans » Fri Feb 25, 2022 9:54 am

0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC and NWS products.

NorthieStangl
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 65
Age: 38
Joined: Tue Oct 06, 2020 2:22 am
Location: Conyers, Georgia, United States
Contact:

Re: 2021 Cyclones Retirement

#69 Postby NorthieStangl » Sun Feb 27, 2022 3:11 pm



So that mean Ida will be literally the only northern hemisphere retired name out of 2021... unless there will be another surprise retirement name, which I don't see happening this year.
0 likes   
Alberto 1994 Opal 1995 Jeanne 2004 Cindy & Dennis 2005 Irma 2017 Michael 2018 Zeta 2020

Category5Kaiju
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3344
Age: 22
Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
Location: Seattle

Re: 2021 Cyclones Retirement

#70 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sun Feb 27, 2022 5:42 pm

NorthieStangl wrote:


So that mean Ida will be literally the only northern hemisphere retired name out of 2021... unless there will be another surprise retirement name, which I don't see happening this year.


Precisely. I mean, the EPAC has not had a retired storm since 2015 believe it or not.
0 likes   
Unless explicitly stated, all information covered in my posts is based on my opinions and observations. Please refer to a professional meteorologist or an accredited weather research agency otherwise, especially if serious decisions must be made in the event of a potentially life-threatening tropical storm or hurricane.

User avatar
Buck
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1128
Joined: Fri Sep 10, 2004 12:04 pm
Location: Atlanta, GA

Re: 2021 Cyclones Retirement

#71 Postby Buck » Thu Mar 31, 2022 2:17 pm

Wasn't WMO day/the conference last week? I haven't seen any news about retirement.
0 likes   

AlphaToOmega
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1448
Joined: Sat Jun 26, 2021 10:51 am
Location: Somewhere in Massachusetts

Re: 2021 Cyclones Retirement

#72 Postby AlphaToOmega » Thu Mar 31, 2022 2:32 pm

Buck wrote:Wasn't WMO day/the conference last week? I haven't seen any news about retirement.


https://public.wmo.int/en/events/meetings/44th-session-of-hurricane-committee-hc-44-online

Interestingly, I have heard no news about requested retirements. If the United States or any other country impacted by Ida requests not to retire "Ida", would that mean the name "Ida" would not be retired?
0 likes   

Category5Kaiju
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3344
Age: 22
Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
Location: Seattle

Re: 2021 Cyclones Retirement

#73 Postby Category5Kaiju » Thu Mar 31, 2022 6:09 pm

I believe the WMO conference is at the end of April this year.

https://public.wmo.int/en/events/meetin ... -44-online

That is my source:


Plus, I am almost certain that Ida would be retired. Not retiring Ida would be extremely unlikely imho
0 likes   
Unless explicitly stated, all information covered in my posts is based on my opinions and observations. Please refer to a professional meteorologist or an accredited weather research agency otherwise, especially if serious decisions must be made in the event of a potentially life-threatening tropical storm or hurricane.

NorthieStangl
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 65
Age: 38
Joined: Tue Oct 06, 2020 2:22 am
Location: Conyers, Georgia, United States
Contact:

Re: 2021 Cyclones Retirement

#74 Postby NorthieStangl » Thu Apr 14, 2022 9:32 am

NorthieStangl wrote:


So that mean Ida will be literally the only northern hemisphere retired name out of 2021... unless there will be another surprise retirement name, which I don't see happening this year.


I'm surprised that nobody else mentioned this, but apparently 3 PAGASA names - Jolina, Maring, and Odette - were retired and replaced in March. https://mb.com.ph/2022/03/22/pagasa-rep ... s-in-2021/
0 likes   
Alberto 1994 Opal 1995 Jeanne 2004 Cindy & Dennis 2005 Irma 2017 Michael 2018 Zeta 2020

User avatar
InfernoFlameCat
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1966
Age: 20
Joined: Mon Dec 14, 2020 10:52 am
Location: Buford, GA

Re: 2021 Cyclones Retirement

#75 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Thu Apr 14, 2022 6:55 pm

My opinion
Ida=99.9999%
Larry 10%
Grace 10%
Everything else = 0 %
0 likes   
I am by no means a professional. DO NOT look at my forecasts for official information or make decisions based on what I post.

Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.

Category5Kaiju
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3344
Age: 22
Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
Location: Seattle

Re: 2021 Cyclones Retirement

#76 Postby Category5Kaiju » Wed Apr 20, 2022 8:41 pm

Alright, it looks like we have roughly 5-7 or so days before we find out which names get retired from the Atlantic and Pacific seasons!

*yes, I know it'll likely just be Ida, but I have to say, seeing the names of very destructive storms officially getting retired into the dustbin of history and seeing their new replacement names while discussing our thoughts on such replacement names (not to mention perhaps even making fun of them) is one of the most fun parts of tracking the tropics!
1 likes   
Unless explicitly stated, all information covered in my posts is based on my opinions and observations. Please refer to a professional meteorologist or an accredited weather research agency otherwise, especially if serious decisions must be made in the event of a potentially life-threatening tropical storm or hurricane.

Category5Kaiju
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3344
Age: 22
Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
Location: Seattle

Re: 2021 Cyclones Retirement

#77 Postby Category5Kaiju » Mon Apr 25, 2022 11:08 am

It's now April 25, and the 44th WMO conference has begun (it's apparently virtual). I think we should know within the next day or two.
0 likes   
Unless explicitly stated, all information covered in my posts is based on my opinions and observations. Please refer to a professional meteorologist or an accredited weather research agency otherwise, especially if serious decisions must be made in the event of a potentially life-threatening tropical storm or hurricane.

User avatar
ouragans
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 464
Age: 52
Joined: Sun Jun 12, 2011 12:09 pm
Location: Abymes, Guadeloupe F.W.I
Contact:

Re: 2021 Cyclones Retirement

#78 Postby ouragans » Mon Apr 25, 2022 12:38 pm

Elsa has been requested to be retired by Barbados Met Service
6 likes   
Personal forecast disclaimer
This post is just a personal point of view, not an information. Please refer to official statements for life-threatening decisions.

David '79, Frederic '79, Hugo '89, Iris '95, Luis '95, Marilyn '95, Georges '98, Lenny '99, Dean '07, Irma '17, Maria '17, Fiona '22
16°13'33.3,"6N -61°36'39.5"W

Category5Kaiju
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3344
Age: 22
Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
Location: Seattle

Re: 2021 Cyclones Retirement

#79 Postby Category5Kaiju » Mon Apr 25, 2022 12:55 pm

ouragans wrote:Elsa has been requested to be retired by Barbados Met Service


Hmm, interesting. I did a quick bit of research on Elsa, and it seems like it was the first hurricane to directly hit Barbados in 66 years (since Janet in 1955, interestingly). It also did quite a bit of damage there. So if it does get retired, a few interesting things would arise:

1. This could very well be a case like Igor or Fabian in which the hurricane alone is not extremely infamous overall for many wx enthusiasts or scientists, but it happens to impact some independent nation in the Atlantic in a manner that they have never seen before or at least seen in years, allowing them to formulate a strong argument for retirement and with the storm being one that local residents may remember for a while
2. It would be the first E name to get retired since 2015
3. It would be the first replacement name of a replacement name in the Atlantic to get retired (in other words, the third in its lineage)
4. It would be the first July storm to get its name retired since Dennis in 2005

My guesses for replacement would be Edith, Estrella, Evelyn, or Eleanor. We'll see what happens though. Honestly, I personally did not expect Elsa to even become a retirement-worthy name, but given what I have just read up about it, seems like Barbados may actually have a solid point in seeing that name gone.
2 likes   
Unless explicitly stated, all information covered in my posts is based on my opinions and observations. Please refer to a professional meteorologist or an accredited weather research agency otherwise, especially if serious decisions must be made in the event of a potentially life-threatening tropical storm or hurricane.

GSBHurricane
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 157
Joined: Mon Sep 17, 2018 10:12 am

Re: 2021 Cyclones Retirement

#80 Postby GSBHurricane » Mon Apr 25, 2022 1:21 pm

ouragans wrote:Elsa has been requested to be retired by Barbados Met Service

Is there a source for this? It would be interesting if true but I can’t find anything verifying it.
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: cainjamin, Dougiefresh and 47 guests