Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

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cycloneye
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#101 Postby cycloneye » Thu May 05, 2022 9:11 am

wxman57 wrote:New ECMWF June-November seasonal forecast is out. EC dropped named storms from 18.8 to 16. Hurricanes dropped to 8 from 9.


Do you know when NOAA will release their forecast? I have the 12th but it may be the 19th.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#102 Postby wxman57 » Thu May 05, 2022 9:52 am

cycloneye wrote:
wxman57 wrote:New ECMWF June-November seasonal forecast is out. EC dropped named storms from 18.8 to 16. Hurricanes dropped to 8 from 9.


Do you know when NOAA will release their forecast? I have the 12th but it may be the 19th.


No idea, but I expect a range like 15-22 named storms.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#103 Postby tropicwatch » Thu May 05, 2022 11:10 am

wxman57 wrote:
cycloneye wrote:
wxman57 wrote:New ECMWF June-November seasonal forecast is out. EC dropped named storms from 18.8 to 16. Hurricanes dropped to 8 from 9.


Do you know when NOAA will release their forecast? I have the 12th but it may be the 19th.


No idea, but I expect a range like 15-22 named storms.


For some reason I thought it was going to be released sometime today.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#104 Postby cycloneye » Tue May 10, 2022 5:05 pm

I asked Eric Blake about when the NOAA outlook will be released and he answered on May 24.

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1524144836172996608


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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#105 Postby NotSparta » Tue May 10, 2022 5:57 pm

cycloneye wrote:I asked Eric Blake about when will the NOAA outlook will be released and he answered on May 24.

https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1524144836172996608


Last week of May or so. I believe that sounds about right for the NOAA forecast
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA May Outlook=May 24

#106 Postby SFLcane » Thu May 19, 2022 12:08 pm

Just wanted to share one of the most detalied hurricane seasonal forecast i have seen this year from Earth Networks. 18/8/4 ace 153 (121-186)



Link: https://youtu.be/16QLiumqURc

Image

Image

Image
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA May Outlook=May 24 at 11 AM EDT

#107 Postby cycloneye » Fri May 20, 2022 7:13 am

SFLcane wrote:Just wanted to share one of the most detalied hurricane seasonal forecast i have seen this year from Earth Networks. 18/8/4 ace 153 (121-186)

https://youtu.be/16QLiumqURc

https://i.postimg.cc/gcwDbsPC/enso-jpeg.png

https://i.postimg.cc/7YkTtnPM/emso1-jpeg.png

https://i.postimg.cc/Zq2W8rDN/eno3-jpeg.png


Very complete rundown of the factors.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA May Outlook=May 24 at 11 AM EDT

#108 Postby cycloneye » Mon May 23, 2022 5:28 am

Finnally, the waiting for NOAA to be up is nearing it's end as tommorow will be released.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA May Outlook=May 24 at 11 AM EDT

#109 Postby SFLcane » Mon May 23, 2022 8:15 am

cycloneye wrote:Finnally, the waiting for NOAA to be up is nearing it's end as tommorow will be released.


Expecting quite the busy season from them tomorrow.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA May Outlook=May 24 at 11 AM EDT

#110 Postby toad strangler » Mon May 23, 2022 8:43 am

SFLcane wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Finnally, the waiting for NOAA to be up is nearing it's end as tommorow will be released.


Expecting quite the busy season from them tomorrow.


I put most of my marbles in NOAA and CSU output and in that order. It's nice to have CSU early and then NOAA to throw the hammer down. :D
Not to mention the in season NOAA updates too.
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Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA May Outlook=May 24 at 11 AM EDT

#111 Postby skyline385 » Mon May 23, 2022 9:13 am

toad strangler wrote:
SFLcane wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Finnally, the waiting for NOAA to be up is nearing it's end as tommorow will be released.


Expecting quite the busy season from them tomorrow.


I put most of my marbles in NOAA and CSU output and in that order. It's nice to have CSU early and then NOAA to throw the hammer down. :D
Not to mention the in season NOAA updates too.

CSU's biweekly updates during the season are pretty great as well. Love reading their thoughts on the week ahead while looking at verification from previous weeks.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA May Outlook=May 24 at 11 AM EDT

#112 Postby cycloneye » Mon May 23, 2022 9:24 am

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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: UKMET is up / 18/9/4 ACE 176

#113 Postby cycloneye » Mon May 23, 2022 9:51 am

UKMET is up with 18/9/4 and ACE of 176.

An extract.

Image
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: UKMET is up / 18/9/4 ACE 176

#114 Postby skyline385 » Mon May 23, 2022 10:09 am

cycloneye wrote:UKMET is up with 18/9/4 and ACE of 176.

An extract.

Image

They predicted an ACE of 110 for 2020 and 117 for 2021 so yea 176 is something
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: UKMET is up / 18/9/4 ACE 176

#115 Postby SFLcane » Mon May 23, 2022 10:18 am

Wow!! :crazyeyes: :crazyeyes:

Thats an ace near 180 folks.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: UKMET is up / 18/9/4 ACE 176

#116 Postby Category5Kaiju » Mon May 23, 2022 10:22 am

So basically if no recalibration occurred with the UKMET's model, then there is a chance that this 176 ACE prediction is an underestimate? Also, the UKMET is perhaps one of the more conservative forecasting models, so if this were true, then, um, yikes?
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: UKMET is up / 18/9/4 ACE 176

#117 Postby skyline385 » Mon May 23, 2022 10:26 am

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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: UKMET is up / 18/9/4 ACE 176

#118 Postby AutoPenalti » Mon May 23, 2022 11:10 am

That range is off. UKMET is pretty much giving coinflip odds of having an average or hyperactive season lol.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: UKMET is up / 18/9/4 ACE 176

#119 Postby cycloneye » Mon May 23, 2022 8:54 pm

SFLcane wrote:Wow!! :crazyeyes: :crazyeyes:

Thats an ace near 180 folks.


Yeah, so much for being conservative as they almost always are.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: UKMET is up / 18/9/4 ACE 176

#120 Postby skyline385 » Mon May 23, 2022 9:18 pm

cycloneye wrote:
SFLcane wrote:Wow!! :crazyeyes: :crazyeyes:

Thats an ace near 180 folks.


Yeah, so much for being conservative as they almost always are.


Funny though that they have done this before in 2010 where they predicted an ACE of 204 with a wide range of 91 to 319 (imagine a 319 ACE season :lol: ) so basically any NATL season not under a strong El Nino.

As everyone here already knows, that season ended with 165.
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