Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#141 Postby zzh » Tue May 31, 2022 10:12 am

TSR is up. 18/8/4 ace 140
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#142 Postby tolakram » Tue May 31, 2022 10:16 am

link: https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/ ... on2022.pdf

TSR maintains its forecast issued in early April and continues to predict North Atlantic
hurricane activity in 2022 will be 10-15% above the 1991-2020 30-year norm. However, this
outlook has large uncertainties and the forecast skill at this range is low.


Not sure I understand why they didn't update.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: TSR May 31 is up=18/8/4

#143 Postby cycloneye » Tue May 31, 2022 10:40 am

Backloaded season?

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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#144 Postby skyline385 » Tue May 31, 2022 11:24 pm

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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#145 Postby al78 » Wed Jun 01, 2022 4:01 am

tolakram wrote:link: https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/ ... on2022.pdf

TSR maintains its forecast issued in early April and continues to predict North Atlantic
hurricane activity in 2022 will be 10-15% above the 1991-2020 30-year norm. However, this
outlook has large uncertainties and the forecast skill at this range is low.


Not sure I understand why they didn't update.


CLimate signals look favourable but not to the extent I believe a hyperactive season is very likely. MDR SSTs are slightly above average and they have been fluctuating significantly over the last month. Normally in a hyperactive season the MDR SSTs will be near 0.5C above average or more. La Nina is present and expected to persist but it is not a overly strong La Nina. June NAO looks to be slightly negative which favours MDR warming. With the favourable but of fairly modest magnitude climate parameters (La Nina, MNDR SST) I decided to hold the forecast at the April level.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#146 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Wed Jun 01, 2022 3:52 pm

al78 wrote:
tolakram wrote:link: https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/ ... on2022.pdf

TSR maintains its forecast issued in early April and continues to predict North Atlantic
hurricane activity in 2022 will be 10-15% above the 1991-2020 30-year norm. However, this
outlook has large uncertainties and the forecast skill at this range is low.


Not sure I understand why they didn't update.


CLimate signals look favourable but not to the extent I believe a hyperactive season is very likely. MDR SSTs are slightly above average and they have been fluctuating significantly over the last month. Normally in a hyperactive season the MDR SSTs will be near 0.5C above average or more. La Nina is present and expected to persist but it is not a overly strong La Nina. June NAO looks to be slightly negative which favours MDR warming. With the favourable but of fairly modest magnitude climate parameters (La Nina, MNDR SST) I decided to hold the forecast at the April level.


Personally, I do not place the strength of La Nina too highly on my estimates for activity levels. For example, ENSO in ASO 2005 was cool neutral and look at what we saw. Compare that to 2007 with a strengthening La Nina in ASO and we saw a few strong hurricanes, but only 2 majors which is below normal. I think what is most important is whether or not ENSO is in a cooler than average state or warmer.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#147 Postby al78 » Thu Jun 02, 2022 7:06 am

captainbarbossa19 wrote:
al78 wrote:
tolakram wrote:link: https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/ ... on2022.pdf

TSR maintains its forecast issued in early April and continues to predict North Atlantic
hurricane activity in 2022 will be 10-15% above the 1991-2020 30-year norm. However, this
outlook has large uncertainties and the forecast skill at this range is low.


Not sure I understand why they didn't update.


CLimate signals look favourable but not to the extent I believe a hyperactive season is very likely. MDR SSTs are slightly above average and they have been fluctuating significantly over the last month. Normally in a hyperactive season the MDR SSTs will be near 0.5C above average or more. La Nina is present and expected to persist but it is not a overly strong La Nina. June NAO looks to be slightly negative which favours MDR warming. With the favourable but of fairly modest magnitude climate parameters (La Nina, MNDR SST) I decided to hold the forecast at the April level.


Personally, I do not place the strength of La Nina too highly on my estimates for activity levels. For example, ENSO in ASO 2005 was cool neutral and look at what we saw. Compare that to 2007 with a strengthening La Nina in ASO and we saw a few strong hurricanes, but only 2 majors which is below normal. I think what is most important is whether or not ENSO is in a cooler than average state or warmer.


Other factors beside ENSO can influence hurricane activity, but on average, it does have an influence which should be factored in, anomalous years notwithstanding. TSR doesn't directly use ENSO as a predictor, it uses the Atlantic/Caribbean trade wind speed anomaly which is predictied from ENSO and Caribbean Sea SST anomaly forecasts. Admittedly in the last decade or so, the climate predictors we use have become less reliable, which is why our statistical regression model is supplemented by analysis of the ENSO state and predictions, the spring NAO, and the current and trend of Atlantic SSTs.

2021 has some parallel with 2007 in that despite La Nina conditions, the season pretty much switched off early, whereas normally the opposite happens (e.g. 2020). I don't really know what factor over-rode the La Nina influence in those two years.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU=20/10/5 is up

#148 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 02, 2022 9:02 am

Image

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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU=20/10/5 is up

#149 Postby toad strangler » Thu Jun 02, 2022 9:03 am

:eek: on the increased ACE
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: Breaking News: CSU=20/10/5 / ACE 180 is up

#150 Postby SFLcane » Thu Jun 02, 2022 9:07 am

Time to hide folks!! 20/10/5 :crazyeyes: :crazyeyes: :crazyeyes:
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: Breaking News: CSU=20/10/5 / ACE 180 is up

#151 Postby skyline385 » Thu Jun 02, 2022 9:21 am

The ACE is concerning, those 11 MH days predicted are really going to pump the numbers.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: Breaking News: CSU=20/10/5 / ACE 180 is up

#152 Postby SFLcane » Thu Jun 02, 2022 9:29 am

I am in awe of the season phil k is predicting may the steering gods be with us all. :eek: :cry:
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: Breaking News: CSU=20/10/5 / ACE 180 is up

#153 Postby AutoPenalti » Thu Jun 02, 2022 9:36 am

Welp, and here I thought my revised 19/8/4 165 ACE numbers were a bit too bullish.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: Breaking News: CSU=20/10/5 / ACE 180 is up

#154 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 02, 2022 9:36 am

The thing that concerns me where I am is this 65% of at least a major in the Caribbean.

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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: Breaking News: CSU=20/10/5 / ACE 180 is up

#155 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Thu Jun 02, 2022 9:39 am

If I am not mistaken, 180 ACE is considered hyperactive?
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: Breaking News: CSU=20/10/5 / ACE 180 is up

#156 Postby kevin » Thu Jun 02, 2022 9:42 am

captainbarbossa19 wrote:If I am not mistaken, 180 ACE is considered hyperactive?


Yes, anything above 159.6 ACE is considered hyperactive if I recall correctly.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: Breaking News: CSU=20/10/5 / ACE 180 is up

#157 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Thu Jun 02, 2022 9:45 am

kevin wrote:
captainbarbossa19 wrote:If I am not mistaken, 180 ACE is considered hyperactive?


Yes, anything above 159.6 ACE is considered hyperactive if I recall correctly.


Well that certainly is alarming. That graphic showing that the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle to Brownsville having a 50% chance of a major landfall is quite concerning too.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: Breaking News: CSU=20/10/5 / ACE 180 is up

#158 Postby toad strangler » Thu Jun 02, 2022 9:48 am

captainbarbossa19 wrote:
kevin wrote:
captainbarbossa19 wrote:If I am not mistaken, 180 ACE is considered hyperactive?


Yes, anything above 159.6 ACE is considered hyperactive if I recall correctly.


Well that certainly is alarming. That graphic showing that the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle to Brownsville having a 50% chance of a major landfall is quite concerning too.


All three US coastline areas are 50% or higher. Basically a 20% increase over historic norms everywhere.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: Breaking News: CSU=20/10/5 / ACE 180 is up

#159 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 02, 2022 9:50 am

For those members who like to know the analog years for 2022 here they are. 1996, 1999, 2000, 2008, 2011 and 2021.

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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: Breaking News: CSU=20/10/5 / ACE 180 is up

#160 Postby Category5Kaiju » Thu Jun 02, 2022 9:59 am

At this point I am starting to wonder if there actually is a possibility that this season reaches at least 200 ACE. Seems like experts are really banking on several long-lived major hurricanes, and given the predicted favorability of the Caribbean, getting a high ACE would not be out of reach especially if we get a Caribbean cruiser system.
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