Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

[skyline385]

At this point I am starting to wonder if there actually is a possibility that this season reaches at least 200 ACE. Seems like experts are really banking on several long-lived major hurricanes, and given the predicted favorability of the Caribbean, getting a high ACE would not be out of reach especially if we get a Caribbean cruiser system.

Most Caribbean systems are pretty short lived though. Its the MDR runners which pump up the ACE the most...

[Category5Kaiju]

At this point I am starting to wonder if there actually is a possibility that this season reaches at least 200 ACE. Seems like experts are really banking on several long-lived major hurricanes, and given the predicted favorability of the Caribbean, getting a high ACE would not be out of reach especially if we get a Caribbean cruiser system.

Most Caribbean systems are pretty short lived though. Its the MDR runners which pump up the ACE the most...

Oh by "Caribbean cruiser" I was referring to storms like Emily, Gilbert, Allen, Ivan, or Dean. The ones that rack up a lot of ACE by slowly traveling through the length of the Caribbean Sea. I don't doubt we'll see at least one long lived MDR system, but I also am wondering whether we could see a robust Caribbean cruiser given how many models are predicting a pretty favorable and wet Caribbean Sea during hurricane season's heart.

[Teban54]

For those members who like to know the analog years for 2022 here they are. 1996, 1999, 2000, 2008, 2011 and 2021.

https://i.imgur.com/1aA1wdH.jpg

Note that the NS days in this forecast are higher than all analogs, including 2021 which had a higher NS count. This suggests they expect most of these systems will not be "shorties", unlike what a lot of users thought in the seasonal poll.

[tarheelprogrammer]

CSU has the same exact numbers I went with in the Storm2k poll haha

[KN2731]

CSU has the same exact numbers I went with in the Storm2k poll haha

The Storm2k poll average of 20.2/9.7/4.6 actually rounds to 20/10/5... the hive mind is doing surprisingly well

[skyline385]

CSU has the same exact numbers I went with in the Storm2k poll haha

The Storm2k poll average of 20.2/9.7/4.6 actually rounds to 20/10/5... the hive mind is doing surprisingly well

I am genuinely surprised by those numbers as being a wx enthusiast forum, there is always a natural tendency for a bullish bias here imo.

[Kat5]

ECMWF is going with 19 named storms and 11 Hurricanes on its June update.

https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/products/seasonal_system5_tstorm_frequency?base_time=202206010000

[cycloneye]

ECMWF is going with 19 named storms and 11 Hurricanes on its June update.

https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/products/seasonal_system5_tstorm_frequency?base_time=202206010000

Added to the first post list.

[OuterBanker]

Of most significance is that the Euro went from 16.4 to 19.3 between the May and June forecast. A rather ominous sign. I am quite sure that the season over statements will start around mid July. I’m afraid that most think that with all forecasts calling for a much over average season that it should start as soon as the season starts. Some over active seasons haven’t started until August.

[ouragans]

Meteo France issued their forecast today

18 (±4) TS
9 (± 3) H

https://meteofrance.mq/fr/climat/previs ... -pour-2022

[ouragans]

Forecast from Servicio Meteorológico Nacional, Mexico

16-21 TS
6-10 H
2-4 MH

https://smn.conagua.gob.mx/files/pdfs/c ... 340-22.pdf

[ouragans]

Forecast from Instituto de Meteorologia de la Republica de Cuba

17 TS
9 H

 https://twitter.com/cnp_insmet_cuba/status/1522193539903496192

[cycloneye]

Joe Bastardi has the same as March with 18-22 named storms, 6-10 hurricanes and 2-4 majors with ACE between 140-180. Graphic of landfall probabilities updated from March.




 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1534546221456625665

[SFLcane]

Its Florida's year per Joe.

[cycloneye]

NE Caribbean year too. wxman57, what probabilities you have for the NE Caribbean as you have clients in the islands?

[Blown Away]

Its Florida's year per Joe.

Looks like classic CV season predicted by JB with a BH that may push storms W into NE Caribbean and begin recurve near/into Bahamas, Florida, and/or Carolinas...

[SFLcane]

NE Caribbean year too. wxman57, what probabilities you have for the NE Caribbean as you have clients in the islands?

That would be great to know if possible. Strike probablities for the caribbean and Florida?

[cycloneye]

wxman57 Sent a private message about the probabilities of NE Caribbean.

[toad strangler]

wxman57 Sent a private message about the probabilities of NE Caribbean.

Are you gonna share with your classmates?

[cycloneye]

wxman57 Sent a private message about the probabilities of NE Caribbean.

Are you gonna share with your classmates?

No, is the other way around.