Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
toad strangler
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4161
Joined: Sun Jul 28, 2013 3:09 pm
Location: Earth
Contact:

Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#241 Postby toad strangler » Mon Jul 25, 2022 12:43 pm

aspen wrote:
Spacecoast wrote:Ran across Univ of Arizona's June updated forecast.
Didn't see it previously posted, so here it is (/was).....

https://i.ibb.co/hDDrmDK/ua.jpg

I was originally surprised at how low UA went compared to every other forecasting agency, but after the last few months, I’m thinking they may end up being the closest to reality.


After the last few months what?
3 likes   

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8029
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#242 Postby aspen » Mon Jul 25, 2022 3:02 pm

toad strangler wrote:
aspen wrote:
Spacecoast wrote:Ran across Univ of Arizona's June updated forecast.
Didn't see it previously posted, so here it is (/was).....

https://i.ibb.co/hDDrmDK/ua.jpg

I was originally surprised at how low UA went compared to every other forecasting agency, but after the last few months, I’m thinking they may end up being the closest to reality.


After the last few months what?

The indicators from the last few months seem to suggest more of a typical above-average season like 2018 (close to the UA forecasts) instead of a hyperactive season close to 1999’s ACE or 2021’s NS count. Or, at least, that’s just what I’ve been getting from it.
1 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9592
Age: 46
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#243 Postby SFLcane » Thu Jul 28, 2022 1:28 pm

My guess Phil will go with 18-8-4 next week.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138789
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#244 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 28, 2022 6:30 pm

SFLcane wrote:My guess Phil will go with 18-8-4 next week.


That includes the three already right?
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138789
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#245 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 31, 2022 8:21 am

Important dates comming up this week about the release of the August forecasts from the Experts private (CSU, TSR, Accuweather and others) and public (NOAA)

CSU on Augus4 4 at 11 AM EDT.

TSR on August 5.

NOAA, not yet date known.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
AnnularCane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2619
Joined: Thu Jun 08, 2006 9:18 am
Location: Wytheville, VA

Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#246 Postby AnnularCane » Sun Jul 31, 2022 8:42 am

cycloneye wrote:
CSU on August 4 at 11 AM EDT.



That's right when my dental appointment is. Maybe the hygienist can be about 5 minutes late? :lol:
2 likes   
"But it never rained rain. It never snowed snow. And it never blew just wind. It rained things like soup and juice. It snowed mashed potatoes and green peas. And sometimes the wind blew in storms of hamburgers." -- Judi Barrett, Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22472
Age: 66
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU August forecast will be up on the 4th at 11 AM EDT

#247 Postby wxman57 » Sun Jul 31, 2022 9:01 am

I'll talk to Phil tomorrow, see if his thinking is in line with mine. Lowering of the numbers looks likely, given the current quiet tropics that may last through mid-August.
8 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138789
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#248 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 31, 2022 2:02 pm

AnnularCane wrote:
cycloneye wrote:
CSU on August 4 at 11 AM EDT.



That's right when my dental appointment is. Maybe the hygienist can be about 5 minutes late? :lol:


You can see the forecast on your phone. :D It will be in the news including TWC.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
AnnularCane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2619
Joined: Thu Jun 08, 2006 9:18 am
Location: Wytheville, VA

Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#249 Postby AnnularCane » Sun Jul 31, 2022 2:30 pm

cycloneye wrote:
AnnularCane wrote:
cycloneye wrote:
CSU on August 4 at 11 AM EDT.



That's right when my dental appointment is. Maybe the hygienist can be about 5 minutes late? :lol:


You can see the forecast on your phone. :D It will be in the news including TWC.


I know, but once I get called in, I might be a bit busy to play on my phone. That's why I want her to be a little late. :P
2 likes   
"But it never rained rain. It never snowed snow. And it never blew just wind. It rained things like soup and juice. It snowed mashed potatoes and green peas. And sometimes the wind blew in storms of hamburgers." -- Judi Barrett, Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9592
Age: 46
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#250 Postby SFLcane » Mon Aug 01, 2022 8:05 am

cycloneye wrote:Important dates comming up this week about the release of the August forecasts from the Experts private (CSU, TSR, Accuweather and others) and public (NOAA)

CSU on Augus4 4 at 11 AM EDT.

TSR on August 5.

NOAA, not yet date known.


Luis, Noaa is on Thursday August 4th.

http://www.noaa.gov/media-advisory/noaa ... on-outlook
1 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138789
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#251 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 01, 2022 8:07 am

SFLcane wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Important dates comming up this week about the release of the August forecasts from the Experts private (CSU, TSR, Accuweather and others) and public (NOAA)

CSU on Augus4 4 at 11 AM EDT.

TSR on August 5.

NOAA, not yet date known.


Luis, Noaa is on Thursday August 4th.

http://www.noaa.gov/media-advisory/noaa ... on-outlook


Good, thank you. Going to fix the title.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9592
Age: 46
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#252 Postby SFLcane » Mon Aug 01, 2022 8:10 am

cycloneye wrote:
SFLcane wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Important dates comming up this week about the release of the August forecasts from the Experts private (CSU, TSR, Accuweather and others) and public (NOAA)

CSU on Augus4 4 at 11 AM EDT.

TSR on August 5.

NOAA, not yet date known.


Luis, Noaa is on Thursday August 4th.

http://www.noaa.gov/media-advisory/noaa ... on-outlook


Good, thank you. Going to fix the title.


Jam packed week! :wink:
2 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138789
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU / NOAA up on the 4th at 11 AM EDT

#253 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 01, 2022 8:15 am

Decisive week that also includes apart from the experts the climate model NMME that had a very active season in the July update.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
toad strangler
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4161
Joined: Sun Jul 28, 2013 3:09 pm
Location: Earth
Contact:

Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU / NOAA up on the 4th at 11 AM EDT

#254 Postby toad strangler » Mon Aug 01, 2022 9:33 am

cycloneye wrote:Decisive week that also includes apart from the experts the climate model NMME that had a very active season in the July update.


Mostly high ACE / hyperactive fans will be on their toes. I’m confident the narrative will be a some steps back. That probably won’t change what will likely be a long 8 week peak.
3 likes   

User avatar
DorkyMcDorkface
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 685
Age: 26
Joined: Mon Sep 30, 2019 1:32 pm
Location: Mid-Atlantic

Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU / NOAA up on the 4th at 11 AM EDT

#255 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Mon Aug 01, 2022 10:10 am

Expecting a drop in numbers a bit but nothing too dramatic - usually they don't shave off any more than like 2-3 NS.
1 likes   
Floyd 1999 | Isabel 2003 | Hanna 2008 | Irene 2011 | Sandy 2012 | Isaias 2020

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22472
Age: 66
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU / NOAA up on the 4th at 11 AM EDT

#256 Postby wxman57 » Mon Aug 01, 2022 7:28 pm

Phil did tell me his numbers today, but I cannot divulge them. I can tell you, though, that he either left them the same, lowered them, or raised them.
13 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138789
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU / NOAA up on the 4th at 11 AM EDT

#257 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 01, 2022 7:32 pm

wxman57 wrote:Phil did tell me his numbers today, but I cannot divulge them. I can tell you, though, that he either left them the same, lowered them, or raised them.


Drop a tiny hint, only tiny.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
skyline385
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2444
Age: 33
Joined: Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:15 pm
Location: Palm Beach County FL

Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU / NOAA up on the 4th at 11 AM EDT

#258 Postby skyline385 » Mon Aug 01, 2022 8:17 pm

wxman57 wrote:Phil did tell me his numbers today, but I cannot divulge them. I can tell you, though, that he either left them the same, lowered them, or raised them.


As predicted!!! 8-)
1 likes   

User avatar
AtlanticWind
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1805
Age: 65
Joined: Sun Aug 08, 2004 9:57 pm
Location: Plantation,Fla

Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU / NOAA up on the 4th at 11 AM EDT

#259 Postby AtlanticWind » Tue Aug 02, 2022 3:00 am

wxman57 wrote:Phil did tell me his numbers today, but I cannot divulge them. I can tell you, though, that he either left them the same, lowered them, or raised them.


I am sure its option 1 or 2 .
0 likes   

al78
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 240
Joined: Thu Nov 01, 2018 12:20 pm

Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#260 Postby al78 » Tue Aug 02, 2022 3:47 am

cycloneye wrote:TSR on August 5.


The 9th August, not the 5th.
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 39 guests