Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

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wxman57
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU / NOAA up on the 4th at 11 AM EDT

#261 Postby wxman57 » Tue Aug 02, 2022 7:31 am

cycloneye wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Phil did tell me his numbers today, but I cannot divulge them. I can tell you, though, that he either left them the same, lowered them, or raised them.


Drop a tiny hint, only tiny.


OK, a tiny hint. He's not raising his numbers.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU / NOAA up on the 4th at 11 AM EDT

#262 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 02, 2022 7:35 am

wxman57 wrote:
cycloneye wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Phil did tell me his numbers today, but I cannot divulge them. I can tell you, though, that he either left them the same, lowered them, or raised them.


Drop a tiny hint, only tiny.


OK, a tiny hint. He's not raising his numbers.


Good. Thank you.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU / NOAA up on the 4th at 11 AM EDT

#263 Postby toad strangler » Tue Aug 02, 2022 7:44 am

cycloneye wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
cycloneye wrote:
Drop a tiny hint, only tiny.


OK, a tiny hint. He's not raising his numbers.


Good. Thank you.


The nearly complete wasteland that July was combined with strong signs of a slow 1st half of August makes it nearly a given that there will be steps taken backwards. I don’t think there is any mystery at all there.

Now, what would be eye opening, is if there is a significant reduction in numbers due to what Mr Klotzbach is seeing for the post 8/20 peak season.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU / NOAA up on the 4th at 11 AM EDT

#264 Postby wxman57 » Tue Aug 02, 2022 11:27 am

toad strangler wrote:
cycloneye wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
OK, a tiny hint. He's not raising his numbers.


Good. Thank you.


The nearly complete wasteland that July was combined with strong signs of a slow 1st half of August makes it nearly a given that there will be steps taken backwards. I don’t think there is any mystery at all there.

Now, what would be eye opening, is if there is a significant reduction in numbers due to what Mr Klotzbach is seeing for the post 8/20 peak season.


One big reason to certainly not raise numbers is to consider the current state of the basin. Climatologically, we'd expect a sharp ramp-up in activity starting very soon. There's no sign of that. With only 3 named storms so far, and maybe no fourth named storm for another two weeks, it will be hard to reach the very high numbers. I would expected maybe 4-5 named storms by the beginning of August, and a strong signal for activity heating up very soon. We're not seeing that. Clearly, something is "off" out there across the tropics. Conditions are not as favorable as we thought they would be. I'm confident that conditions will become much more favorable by the second half of August, but that may be too late to generate 20 named storms or more. I'm seeing similarities to past seasons that featured significant impacts across the NE Gulf, Florida, and the East U.S. Coast. Less of a threat to Texas this year.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU / NOAA up on the 4th at 11 AM EDT

#265 Postby SFLcane » Tue Aug 02, 2022 11:31 am

wxman57 wrote:
toad strangler wrote:
cycloneye wrote:
Good. Thank you.


The nearly complete wasteland that July was combined with strong signs of a slow 1st half of August makes it nearly a given that there will be steps taken backwards. I don’t think there is any mystery at all there.

Now, what would be eye opening, is if there is a significant reduction in numbers due to what Mr Klotzbach is seeing for the post 8/20 peak season.


One big reason to certainly not raise numbers is to consider the current state of the basin. Climatologically, we'd expect a sharp ramp-up in activity starting very soon. There's no sign of that. With only 3 named storms so far, and maybe no fourth named storm for another two weeks, it will be hard to reach the very high numbers. I would expected maybe 4-5 named storms by the beginning of August, and a strong signal for activity heating up very soon. We're not seeing that. Clearly, something is "off" out there across the tropics. Conditions are not as favorable as we thought they would be. I'm confident that conditions will become much more favorable by the second half of August, but that may be too late to generate 20 named storms or more. I'm seeing similarities to past seasons that featured significant impacts across the NE Gulf, Florida, and the East U.S. Coast. Less of a threat to Texas this year.


:eek: :eek:
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU / NOAA up on the 4th at 11 AM EDT

#266 Postby Ntxw » Tue Aug 02, 2022 12:06 pm

wxman57 wrote:One big reason to certainly not raise numbers is to consider the current state of the basin. Climatologically, we'd expect a sharp ramp-up in activity starting very soon. There's no sign of that. With only 3 named storms so far, and maybe no fourth named storm for another two weeks, it will be hard to reach the very high numbers. I would expected maybe 4-5 named storms by the beginning of August, and a strong signal for activity heating up very soon. We're not seeing that. Clearly, something is "off" out there across the tropics. Conditions are not as favorable as we thought they would be. I'm confident that conditions will become much more favorable by the second half of August, but that may be too late to generate 20 named storms or more. I'm seeing similarities to past seasons that featured significant impacts across the NE Gulf, Florida, and the East U.S. Coast. Less of a threat to Texas this year.


There has been a persistent 500mb weakness over the southeast US and Eastern Gulf, assisted by the central-western ridge. Larry did an analysis of historical ENSO like analogs and it too suggests a higher risk for the EGOM/NGOM. You can see this on daily satellite loops with convection in the mentioned regions. Path of least resistance.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU / NOAA up on the 4th at 11 AM EDT

#267 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 02, 2022 12:09 pm

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Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU / NOAA up on the 4th at 11 AM EDT

#268 Postby skyline385 » Tue Aug 02, 2022 12:11 pm

cycloneye wrote:A hint for his forecast on Thursday?

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1554514285849505792



Lol came here just to post that, Phil posting teasers now!

Am surprised tbh temps are higher than 2021.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU / NOAA up on the 4th at 11 AM EDT

#269 Postby SoupBone » Tue Aug 02, 2022 1:16 pm

wxman57 wrote:
toad strangler wrote:
cycloneye wrote:
Good. Thank you.


The nearly complete wasteland that July was combined with strong signs of a slow 1st half of August makes it nearly a given that there will be steps taken backwards. I don’t think there is any mystery at all there.

Now, what would be eye opening, is if there is a significant reduction in numbers due to what Mr Klotzbach is seeing for the post 8/20 peak season.


One big reason to certainly not raise numbers is to consider the current state of the basin. Climatologically, we'd expect a sharp ramp-up in activity starting very soon. There's no sign of that. With only 3 named storms so far, and maybe no fourth named storm for another two weeks, it will be hard to reach the very high numbers. I would expected maybe 4-5 named storms by the beginning of August, and a strong signal for activity heating up very soon. We're not seeing that. Clearly, something is "off" out there across the tropics. Conditions are not as favorable as we thought they would be. I'm confident that conditions will become much more favorable by the second half of August, but that may be too late to generate 20 named storms or more. I'm seeing similarities to past seasons that featured significant impacts across the NE Gulf, Florida, and the East U.S. Coast. Less of a threat to Texas this year.


I know it only takes one to sneak in, for those that will reply with this, but you've been consistent with this forecast. Maybe a separate Texas thread for a deeper explanation? I don't want to derail this one, unless discussing it here is ok.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU / NOAA up on the 4th at 11 AM EDT

#270 Postby NotSparta » Tue Aug 02, 2022 1:38 pm

skyline385 wrote:
cycloneye wrote:A hint for his forecast on Thursday?

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1554514285849505792

Lol came here just to post that, Phil posting teasers now!

Am surprised tbh temps are higher than 2021.


Not really a surprise. Last year there was warmth to the north and south but the MDR was cooler than average for the most part. This year there is that cool strip but mostly in the subtropics. There's still a decent band of warmth in the MDR
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU / NOAA up on the 4th at 11 AM EDT

#271 Postby Nimbus » Tue Aug 02, 2022 1:41 pm

SoupBone suggested
Maybe a separate Texas thread for a deeper explanation?


Texas gets the early low riders that don't recurve do to seasonal TUTT/SAL conditions.
Season often ends early for Texas while the more memorable major hurricane that made landfall near Tarpon Springs FL in October 1921 came later in the season. So climo suggests that if the late season is going to be active this year it will be recurving storms..
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: August 4=CSU at 10 AM EDT / NOAA at 11 AM EDT

#272 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 03, 2022 10:31 am

CSU changed the time of release tommorow and will be at 10 AM EDT while NOAA will be at 11 AM EDT.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1554851805783212035




 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1554852024864215040


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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: August 4=CSU at 10 AM EDT / NOAA at 11 AM EDT

#273 Postby SFLcane » Wed Aug 03, 2022 11:01 am

18-8-4 or 18-9-4 ace around 160-165 is my call for phil tomorrow.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#274 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 03, 2022 12:04 pm

AnnularCane wrote:
cycloneye wrote:
CSU on August 4 at 11 AM EDT.



That's right when my dental appointment is. Maybe the hygienist can be about 5 minutes late? :lol:


At least you can see now the CSU one.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: August 4=CSU at 10 AM EDT / NOAA at 11 AM EDT

#275 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 03, 2022 12:33 pm

CSU will also release tommorow the two week forecast.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1554873986537779200


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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: Today=CSU at 10 AM EDT / NOAA at 11 AM EDT

#276 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 04, 2022 5:27 am

The day all were waiting for has arrived to see what changes CSU and NOAA may have to their forecasts.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: August 4=CSU at 10 AM EDT / NOAA at 11 AM EDT

#277 Postby wxman57 » Thu Aug 04, 2022 8:05 am

SFLcane wrote:18-8-4 or 18-9-4 ace around 160-165 is my call for phil tomorrow.


I will confirm that you are within 4 for each of those values.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: Today=CSU at 10 AM EDT / NOAA at 11 AM EDT

#278 Postby AutoPenalti » Thu Aug 04, 2022 8:10 am

19/8/4 ACE 160 is my call

Still active, but lowered from July's outlook.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: Today=CSU at 10 AM EDT / NOAA at 11 AM EDT

#279 Postby wxman57 » Thu Aug 04, 2022 8:16 am

AutoPenalti wrote:19/8/4 ACE 160 is my call

Still active, but lowered from July's outlook.


Those are my new numbers, down from 22/9/5.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: Today=CSU at 10 AM EDT / NOAA at 11 AM EDT

#280 Postby SFLcane » Thu Aug 04, 2022 8:46 am

wxman57 wrote:
AutoPenalti wrote:19/8/4 ACE 160 is my call

Still active, but lowered from July's outlook.


Those are my new numbers, down from 22/9/5.


Either way you slice it thats a pretty big season especially considering we have yet to have any hurricanes. "Could" get very busy
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